It's important to put aside all the jokes and look at mobilisation from a very practical, realistic standpoint.

Does mobilisation show that the Kremlin is growing increasingly worried about the war situation?

Yes.

Does that make mobilisation useless?

Absolutely not.

Let's put aside the political, economical and social aspects of mobilisation, which make it a net negative, and let's look at military facts.

Russia has had a very important manpower issue from the beginning of the "special military operation", that's simply a fact.

Russia's leadership has done all it could to avoid this scenario.

Unable to send conscripts due to legal and social issues, it chose to invade with an inadequate force.

Propped up by forced mobilisation in the DPR and LPR, along with various mercenaries, this setup can't last.

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@WarInUkraineYet

Sep 13

Thread: Putin's Coup

1/23

It's been a really tough week for our favourite democratically elected President.

The Russian Army was forced to retreat out of basically their entirety of Kharkiv Oblast and this, obviously, turned on the rumour mill about an imminent Kremlin coup.

2/23

Of course, no coup has happened, yet, and signs of internal dissent in Moscow appear abysmally low.

Regardless of whatever rumours keep surfacing, Russia continues to appear stable and united, no matter what happens on the ground.

Reasonably, we ask, "what's going on"?

3/23

Before starting this thread, I want to make clear that I consider those "FSB Letters" and what the Ukrainian SBU claims simple propaganda.

So, with all that ridiculousness out of the way, let's analyse the internal workings of the Kremlin and the likelihood of a coup.

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@WarInUkraineYet

Sep 7

Winter will be tough.

Not only for Europe due to the rally of electricity and gas prices, but also for Ukraine, as the war enters a new phase.

I believe the Winter of 2022/23 will be the most challenging for the nation, as both military and economical issues reach their zenith.

Let's note the military side of things first, since that's less complicated.

Winter has always slowed down military campaigns due to the weather conditions it's associated with, and the War in Ukraine is no different.

Expect to see offensive actions from both sides scaled down.

There's a reason Russia's offensive didn't start in the dead of winter, it's simply logistically more difficult to conduct war during harsh weather.

Additionally, with highways no longer an option for either side, advancing through smaller roads is even more difficult in winter.

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@WarInUkraineYet

Sep 4

Thread: Ukraine's Kherson Offensive.

1/21

Why is Ukraine focusing so much on attempting to retake Kherson?

While a seemingly simple question, there's much more we need to look at in order to get the full picture, and analyse the thinking that went into making this decision.

2/21

First of all, it's obvious that Ukraine has been planning to retake the city ever since it's disastrous fall at the beginning of the war.

The continuous shelling of important bridges connecting the two sides of the Oblast and the continual reinforcement makes it clear.

3/21

It is theorised that the announced counter-offensive is a ploy to distract Russian forces from elsewhere, however I find that unlikely.

The most advanced systems in Ukrainian hands have been targeting the Oblast constantly, while Ukrainian forces elsewhere stay defensive.

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@WarInUkraineYet

Aug 31

The main issue for the Russian soldiers north of the Dnieper, charged with safeguarding Kherson, isn't Ukraine's Armed Forces.

It's attrition and a lack of supplies that's taking it's toll, as the conditions they created, along with UA strikes, make holding Kherson unattainable.

Any territory on the "wrong" side of the Dnieper, bar the complete collapse of the Ukrainian state, would be extremely difficult to sustain.

With only a couple of now destroyed bridges connecting the two halves of Russia's army, this was a disaster waiting to happen.

After the drive towards Mykolaiv and the rest of Ukraine's Black Sea coast failed, it will have been prudent to withdraw from Kherson.

However, assurances given to both local power brokers and Kremlin higher-ups made withdrawing from Kherson an impossibility.

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