Thread:
Dancing with the Devil

There's been a lot of noise about whether enough aid has been delivered to Syria, as the world's focuses on assisting Turkey.

With a very difficult to navigate geopolitical situation, a humanitarian issue is turning to a political one.

1/25 First of all, it is true that Syria has been less impacted by the successive earthquakes than Turkey, where the epicentre was focused.

However, with a basically non-existent central government and virtually no urban-planning, the disaster is still biblical in it's scale.

2/25

Mini Thread:
Cyprus' Big Election

Today, about half a million Cypriots will cast their ballots to elect the 8th President in the small island nations's history.

Initially expected to a blowout, this surprisingly competitive election may change the country's future.

1/9 First of all, let's talk about the two candidates who made it to the second round.

First of all, there's Nikos Christoulidis, current Minister of Foreign Affairs and widely considered to be the favourite.

He has create a big-tent nationalist coalition which support him.

2/9

Mini Thread:
Crimson Olympics

Controversy has sprouted over an apparent decision by the Olympic Committee to include Russian athletes in the 2024 Paris Olympics.

Let's look at the geopolitics behind this, the Olympic Truce and what may happen after the dust settles.

1/ First of all, a quick rundown of the scandal.

Last month, the IOC announced that it was looking into a pathway to allow Russian and Belarusian athletes to participate under a neutral flag.

Russians have been under a neutral flag for 7 years already, due to a doping ban.

2/

Here's some comments by Russian Deputies about what they expect in Putin's yearly address to Russia's Senate and House on February 21st.

It'll be almost a year since Russia invaded Ukraine, and many are fearful a new escalation could start with after that address. Alexander Yushchenko, a Duma deputy for the Communist Party hope that the objectives of the "Special Military Operation" will be cleared up.

"Now there are no conditions at the end of the SVO, I hope to hear them."

The vagueness of demilitarisation and denazification persists.

Mini Thread:
Disaster Diplomacy

Once international aid was quickly sent to assist Turkey and to a lesser extent Syria, a lot of noise was made about who sent to whom.

Greece mobilised almost instantaneously to assist Turkey, while Israel offered Syria it's assistance.

1/10 This, as was expected, confounded some people.

Why would two bitter rivals bickering over the Aegean and two countries who may as well be at war unite to help each other in this?

Wouldn't it be better to let the wound fester even more?

Let's look at Greece and Turkey.

2/10

Let's actually think about this for a little, because it's an interesting question I hear quite a bit.

"Why doesn't Russian just nuke/carpet bomb Kyiv and be done with?"

The threat of nuclear war is certainly a part of it, however I do believe there's more it than that.

https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1623977889304641538

I don't believe that Russia stands to benefit from Ukraine being completely wiped from the face of the earth, because that's not the goal.

Russia's goal is, or at least was, to completely takeover Ukraine and set up a puppet regime.

You can't do that to a nuclear fallout zone.

2023 Gazantiep Earthquake:
An Exercise in Corruption (2).

Let's talk more about these extremely sketchy construction amnesties, and what they offered.

In very simple terms, the Turkish government allowed constructors to be retroactively exempt buildings with a small fee.

1/18 This scheme netted more than 3$bn to the central government, all while 50% of buildings in Turkey were built in violation of seismic regulations.

In fact, just a few days before the earthquake, a draft law was proposed to parliament which would grant further amnesty.

2/18

2023 Gazantiep Earthquake:
An Exercise in Corruption.

The double earthquake which hit southeast Turkey quickly became one of the most horrifying natural disasters in recent memory.

Turkey however is no stranger to such events, and there are many lessons to be learned.

1/18 First of all, let's get the obvious out of the way.

It's fully expected than in such a massive earthquake, many buildings WILL collapse and lives WILL be lost.

The absolute devastation we saw in Turkey however is only worsened by immense corruption on a countrywide scale.

2/18

Resisting the urge to rant about Greek politics while I'm vaguely keeping up the masquerade of being a news and analysis account.

https://twitter.com/PopulismUpdates/status/1623505297875820544

It's 4am why am I doing this to myself.

Putin is beginning his speech, I will post everything interesting in this thread: He welcomes everyone, including the people from Donbass and Southern Ukraine.

It's important to put aside all the jokes and look at mobilisation from a very practical, realistic standpoint.

Does mobilisation show that the Kremlin is growing increasingly worried about the war situation?

Yes.

Does that make mobilisation useless?

Absolutely not. Let's put aside the political, economical and social aspects of mobilisation, which make it a net negative, and let's look at military facts.

Russia has had a very important manpower issue from the beginning of the "special military operation", that's simply a fact.

Thread: Putin's Coup

1/23

It's been a really tough week for our favourite democratically elected President.

The Russian Army was forced to retreat out of basically their entirety of Kharkiv Oblast and this, obviously, turned on the rumour mill about an imminent Kremlin coup. 2/23

Of course, no coup has happened, yet, and signs of internal dissent in Moscow appear abysmally low.

Regardless of whatever rumours keep surfacing, Russia continues to appear stable and united, no matter what happens on the ground.

Reasonably, we ask, "what's going on"?

Winter will be tough.

Not only for Europe due to the rally of electricity and gas prices, but also for Ukraine, as the war enters a new phase.

I believe the Winter of 2022/23 will be the most challenging for the nation, as both military and economical issues reach their zenith. Let's note the military side of things first, since that's less complicated.

Winter has always slowed down military campaigns due to the weather conditions it's associated with, and the War in Ukraine is no different.

Expect to see offensive actions from both sides scaled down.

Thread: Ukraine's Kherson Offensive.

1/21

Why is Ukraine focusing so much on attempting to retake Kherson?

While a seemingly simple question, there's much more we need to look at in order to get the full picture, and analyse the thinking that went into making this decision. 2/21

First of all, it's obvious that Ukraine has been planning to retake the city ever since it's disastrous fall at the beginning of the war.

The continuous shelling of important bridges connecting the two sides of the Oblast and the continual reinforcement makes it clear.

The main issue for the Russian soldiers north of the Dnieper, charged with safeguarding Kherson, isn't Ukraine's Armed Forces.

It's attrition and a lack of supplies that's taking it's toll, as the conditions they created, along with UA strikes, make holding Kherson unattainable. Any territory on the "wrong" side of the Dnieper, bar the complete collapse of the Ukrainian state, would be extremely difficult to sustain.

With only a couple of now destroyed bridges connecting the two halves of Russia's army, this was a disaster waiting to happen.

I have heard repeatedly that "time is in Ukraine's side", due to the continued build-up of Western equipment in Ukraine, like the very successful HIMARS.

However, is that really the case?

I'm genuinely asking because the way I see it, things are looking grim for Ukraine... For a start, the mid-term election is in a few months and while the Republicans will say they support Ukraine, support for Ukraine is a partisan issue.

Additionally, even if the Republicans lose/support Ukraine, US attention will still look to internal issues for a little while.

The proposed half a trillion dollar rebuilding of Ukraine.

Rivne Region -> Ireland
Chernihiv Region -> Germany
Sumy Region -> Canada
Kharkiv -> Turkey, USA
Luhansk -> Czechia, Finland, Sweden
Mykolaiv -> Belgium
Kherson -> Sweden, The Netherlands

Continuing... Odesa Region -> Switzerland
Odesa City -> France
Kirovohrad Region -> Norway
Zaporizhzhia Region -> Austria
Donetsk Oblast -> Poland, Italy

This is certainly a very interesting proposal and it shows a combination of NATO and EU countries rebuilding Ukraine.

That was Part 1 of the Thread🧵, we will continue here!

Belarus certainly has massive economy benefits with Russia, being it's main trade partners.

However, Lukashenko's attempts to avoid relying too much to Russia have collapsed, now that Belarus is a pariah state.

26/

https://twitter.com/WarInUkraineYet/status/1543178479021297664

Belarus always took effort to portray itself as the more reasonable alternative to Russia's foreign policy.

Lukashenko has at many times, for example with the Minsk Agreement, managed to play the interlocutor between West and East.

Now, that role is unattainable.

27/47

Thread🧵

Belarus' Weekly Flirt with War.

Since the beginning of the conflict, Belarus has played a pivotal role in the Russian Invasion of Ukraine.

The last dictatorship in Europe (a title which is now disputed), has always been a staunch ally of Russia.

1/25 This long-standing friendship between the two nations is set on the "Treaty on the Union between Belarus and Russia", signed in 1997, which founded the Union State between the two countries, a supranational organization meant to bring the two countries as close as possible.

2/25

I take issue with this, and it'll probably annoy some people but what gives.

Leaving aside the problematic nature of any political symbol in a pride parade, something which isn't meant to be partisan, the response to this is problematic, in my view. Say a group of Russians are fully against the war and Russian Imperialism in all it's forms, as many who use the white-blue-white flag are, want to be represented with this flag.

If they tick all the boxes of being supportive and empathetic, wouldn't barring them be racist?

There's a kind of "returning to normal" feeling trying to be portrayed by the Russian government, I believe.

A lot of state media seem to be tilting away from constant war reporting and are returning to their normal content.

Putin is also going on his first international trip. He will be visiting Tajikistan and Turkmenistan, probably in order to cement Russian influence in their region and their membership in CSTO.

Where I to make a bet, I would say that Russian leadership feels as if they're winning, along themselves to address other urgent matters.