1/ With the news today that Russia has arrested eight people as suspects for the bombing of the Crimea Bridge on 8 October, I thought it would be useful to try to piece together a full account of the Russian narrative, as I've not yet seen it in Western sources. Long 🧵 follows.
2/ I'm not endorsing this account – aspects have already been disputed – but it's worth looking at what regional media reports are saying. The Russians say that a truck bomb caused the blast; western experts have endorsed this theory (see below).
3/ According to the Russians, the cargo was sent from Odesa in Ukraine to Ruse on the Bulgarian border in early August 2022. It travelled via Romania and likely Moldova, sent under a contract with Kyiv-based company Translogistik UA to a company called Baltex Capital SA.
4/ Bulgarian National Radio reports that Baltex is registered in Panama, not Bulgaria. Its customs representatives are a Bulgarian forwarding company called Tivacom. Baltex instructed it to be sent to an Armenian company called Gu AR G Group.
5/ The Bulgarian newspaper Dnevnik reports that the cargo went to the Bulgarian port of Burgas, from where it was shipped by ferry to Poti in Georgia. It arrived there on 26 September.
6/ Armenian media reports say it was driven from Poti to Armenia in a Georgian-registered DAF truck driven by Artur Terjanyan, an Armenian-Georgian citizen. It arrived at the Bagratashen border post at 14:53 on 27 September, where it was inspected and X-rayed.
7/ No irregularities were found. The cargo was then driven to the Alliance Terminal, a customs warehouse on the outskirts of Yerevan, arriving on the same day at 22:46. It remained there temporarily before it was inspected again on 29 September and documents were submitted.
8/ According to the manifest, which the Russians have published, the cargo comprised 22 pallets with a total weight of 22,770 kg (50,200 lb) of Acrylonitrile Butadiene Styrene edge banding (used to finish the sides and ends of wood-based materials), stacked in rolls.
9/ Marked with "Made in China" stickers, the cargo was photographed and inspected by the Armenians. The lamination of one of the rolls of ABS plastic was checked to verify that it was correctly classified according to the trade rules.
10/ I haven't seen any clear explanation for why the truck went to Armenia. It might well be related to the fact that when it entered Armenia, customs checks were done under Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) customs rules, which also cover Russia. Georgia isn't a member.
11/ This may have provided a back door route into Russia – checks done at the EEU economic border presumably do not have to be redone at the Russian border if a cargo travels from one EEU country to another.
12/ The Armenian authorities say that the customs service at the Ararat Regional Customs House in Yerevan certified the cargo as being "goods of the EEU" on 30 September and issued a transit declaration. This likely made it easier to bring it into Russia.
13/ While at the Alliance Terminal, according to the Armenians, the truck was under camera surveillance for the whole time. It was neither loaded nor unloaded, nor was anything else added. It left Armenia at 00:38 on 1 October via the Bagratashen border post, again being X-rayed.
14/ The pictures of the truck above and the X-ray images were published by the State Revenue Committee of Armenia on Facebook (link below). The X-ray image was likely made at Bagratashen on either 27 September or 1 October. facebook.com/petekamutner/p…
15/ Some commentators have misinterpreted this X-ray as showing the alleged bomb truck or have misattributed it as coming from the Russians. The image comes from Armenia and is of the Georgian DAF truck, not the truck that exploded, which was a different model entirely.
16/ Having entered Georgia again, the truck entered Russia at the Verkhniy Lars checkpoint in North Ossetia – the only open border crossing between the two countries. Curiously, it arrived there only on 5 October. What Terjanyan was doing in the intervening 4 days is not stated.
17/ The DAF truck was then driven 434km from Verkhniy Lars to Armavir, a city in Russia's southern Krasnodar Krai region (which lies to the east of Crimea). It arrived at the warehouse of a company called Agro-Business.
18/ The company is reportedly owned by Georgy Azatyan, a native of Makiivka (near Donetsk city in occupied eastern Ukraine), and his father Samvel. Another son, Artyom, is a lawyer in Simferopol in Crimea.
19/ Artyom reportedly called his father to ask him to accept the cargo for a day on behalf of a friend. This was not communicated to Georgy and the cargo arrived unexpectedly on 6 October. It didn't cause a problem as there was plenty of room in the warehouse.
20/ Terjanyan handed the warehouse operator a pile of invoices but they were not read or signed by the receiver. The cargo was unloaded in the warehouse, where it was to remain overnight.
21/ On the same day, Thursday 6 October, the cargo became the subject of a delivery order posted on ATI (), a Russian freight exchange website, by an Ulyanovsk-based company called TEK-34, with a contact listed as 'Oleg'. ati.su
22/ The cargo was listed as a 'container and packaging'. It was to be delivered to Simferopol, Crimea on 7 October (probably not coincidentally, Vladimir Putin's birthday). The named recipient was a non-existent company supposedly based in Crimea.
23/ TEK-34 seems to have a curious history. It reportedly received good customer reviews between 2009–2020, when it was active, but ceased operating at the end of 2020 when it was sold to a man named Oleg Antipov. It was delisted in 2021 for not having a valid legal address.
24/ In March 2022 it 'came back to life', obtaining a legal address and registering for tax and pensions payments. However, it reportedly did not engage in any activity.
25/ Ten minutes after the job was posted on ATI, Azerbaijan-born truck driver Mahir Yusubov accepted it for a fee of 48,000 rubles ($753). It was removed from ATI shortly afterwards. Yusubov had moved from Kazan to Krasnodar two years ago. He was married and had three children.
26/ Prior to taking the job on 6 October, Yusubov had spent all of September driving around the Krasnodar region making deliveries. His movements were recorded on cameras in the region.
27/ On 7 October, Yusubov drove from Kanevskoy in the north of the region to Armavir, arriving at the warehouse at lunchtime. The cargo was loaded onto his truck, an International ProStar with 870,000 km on the clock, using the warehouse's mechanical loader.
28/ Yusubov was last spotted in Armavir at 16:04. Although the contract required him to deliver the cargo to Simferopol on 7 October, he stopped instead at the village of Svetlyi Put about 99 km from the Crimea Bridge, where he was spotted at 23:06. He likely slept in his truck.
29/ Yusubov was next seen in the village of Strelka, en route to the Crimea Bridge, at 05:00 on 8 October. At 05:52 he crossed onto the bridge, and at 06:03 his truck exploded. /end
1/ Denmark was preparing to fight the United States over Greenland, according to Scandinavian news reports. Around 1,000 Danish troops and a frigate with anti-ship and anti-aircraft capabilities are being sent to Greenland, with standing orders to fight invading forces. ⬇️
2/ Prior to Donald Trump's apparent climbdown after the recent Davos summit, Denmark planned to send around 1,000 soldiers to Greenland during 2026. Around 300 have already arrived in Kangerlussuaq and Nuuk, supplemented by a French mountain infantry unit.
3/ Denmark has also deployed the frigate Peter Willemoes, which has advanced anti-aircraft and anti-ship capabilities, to patrol off western Greenland. The deployment will release ice-capable Thetis-class patrol vessels to operate nearer inshore.
1/ While Kyiv freezes under Russian bombardment, on the other side of the front line an occupied Ukrainian city of 100,000 is also freezing – this time due to Russian corruption and neglect. Russian warbloggers say that the situation is catastrophic. ⬇️
2/ Inhabitants of Alchevsk in the Luhansk region – which has been under Russian occupation since 2014 – have been writing in desperation to anyone who will listen to plead for help with a disastrous heating situation which they say has been ongoing since October 2025.
3/ Warblogger Sergei Kolyasnikov says that he is receiving "dozens of ... letters. Day after day" describing the problems being faced by residents, who say they are still being charged for heating that they are not receiving from the city's central heating system.
1/ Russian air defence soldiers complain that they are being paid as little as $133 a week and that the Russian government is failing to pay them bonuses promised for shooting down Ukrainian drones. Not surprisingly, this isn't helping morale. ⬇️
2/ 'Two Majors' writes:
"The enemy launches over a hundred drones daily into our regions. And not all of them are included in public statistics: many are shot down, for example, over the Zaporizhzhia region [of Ukraine]."
3/ "Therefore, an adequate solution to the problems of air defence personnel and mobile fire teams is an important and necessary task. We were told (some time ago):
1/ The Russian army has adopted infiltration tactics to slip past Ukrainian defences, dividing platoons into a handful of men who advance as far as they can, entrench, and await reinforcements. A Russian warblogger comments on this tactic's limitations. ⬇️
2/ This change of approach since 2024 has enabled Russia to advance slowly, though still generating heavy losses along the way. 'Archangel Spetsnaz' writes:
"Indeed, assault tactics have changed dramatically."
3/ "The wide range of detection and engagement systems and means has, figuratively speaking, "brought to its knees the old tactics," whereby company/battalion-sized offensives were carried out at the frontier.
1/ Huge numbers of Russian soldiers are dying unnecessarily in Ukraine because commanders at every level are falsifying claims of success, according to Russian warbloggers. "To back up their words, they're sending people to their deaths," says one front-line soldier. ⬇️
2/ The image above is an extract from an official Russian Ministry of Defence map showing a completely fictional front line around Kupyansk in Ukraine's Kharkiv region. Commanders falsely reported having taken settlements around the city before it was regained by Ukraine.
3/ Russian commentators call this practice "taking on credit" (as in amassing credit card debt). Commanders have both financial and career motivations for making false reports of success, which are relayed all the way up to Vladimir Putin himself.
1/ A poetry reading by Russian ultra-nationalists in Krasnodar has been violently suppressed by Russian security forces, much to the dismay of their online supporters. The incident highlights how much Putin's regime fears being outflanked from the nationalist right. ⬇️
2/ Members and supporters of the National Bolshevik movement, founded by the late poet and Soviet-era dissident Eduard Limonov, were holding a regularly scheduled reading of Limonov's works in Krasnodar on 17 January when they were interrupted by a law enforcement raid.
3/ According to the 'Carefree Carpenter Z' Telegram channel, "Everything was proceeding as usual when operatives from the regional "Centre E" and the FSB, armed with automatic rifles, burst into the loft space specially rented for the event."