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ChrisO_wiki Profile picture
@ChrisO_wiki
Oct 12, 2022 • 37 tweets • 14 min read • Read on X
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1/ With the news today that Russia has arrested eight people as suspects for the bombing of the Crimea Bridge on 8 October, I thought it would be useful to try to piece together a full account of the Russian narrative, as I've not yet seen it in Western sources. Long 🧵 follows. Image
2/ I'm not endorsing this account – aspects have already been disputed – but it's worth looking at what regional media reports are saying. The Russians say that a truck bomb caused the blast; western experts have endorsed this theory (see below).
3/ According to the Russians, the cargo was sent from Odesa in Ukraine to Ruse on the Bulgarian border in early August 2022. It travelled via Romania and likely Moldova, sent under a contract with Kyiv-based company Translogistik UA to a company called Baltex Capital SA. Image
4/ Bulgarian National Radio reports that Baltex is registered in Panama, not Bulgaria. Its customs representatives are a Bulgarian forwarding company called Tivacom. Baltex instructed it to be sent to an Armenian company called Gu AR G Group.
5/ The Bulgarian newspaper Dnevnik reports that the cargo went to the Bulgarian port of Burgas, from where it was shipped by ferry to Poti in Georgia. It arrived there on 26 September. Image
6/ Armenian media reports say it was driven from Poti to Armenia in a Georgian-registered DAF truck driven by Artur Terjanyan, an Armenian-Georgian citizen. It arrived at the Bagratashen border post at 14:53 on 27 September, where it was inspected and X-rayed. Image
7/ No irregularities were found. The cargo was then driven to the Alliance Terminal, a customs warehouse on the outskirts of Yerevan, arriving on the same day at 22:46. It remained there temporarily before it was inspected again on 29 September and documents were submitted. Image
8/ According to the manifest, which the Russians have published, the cargo comprised 22 pallets with a total weight of 22,770 kg (50,200 lb) of Acrylonitrile Butadiene Styrene edge banding (used to finish the sides and ends of wood-based materials), stacked in rolls.
9/ Marked with "Made in China" stickers, the cargo was photographed and inspected by the Armenians. The lamination of one of the rolls of ABS plastic was checked to verify that it was correctly classified according to the trade rules.


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10/ I haven't seen any clear explanation for why the truck went to Armenia. It might well be related to the fact that when it entered Armenia, customs checks were done under Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) customs rules, which also cover Russia. Georgia isn't a member. Image
11/ This may have provided a back door route into Russia – checks done at the EEU economic border presumably do not have to be redone at the Russian border if a cargo travels from one EEU country to another.
12/ The Armenian authorities say that the customs service at the Ararat Regional Customs House in Yerevan certified the cargo as being "goods of the EEU" on 30 September and issued a transit declaration. This likely made it easier to bring it into Russia. Image
13/ While at the Alliance Terminal, according to the Armenians, the truck was under camera surveillance for the whole time. It was neither loaded nor unloaded, nor was anything else added. It left Armenia at 00:38 on 1 October via the Bagratashen border post, again being X-rayed.
Image
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14/ The pictures of the truck above and the X-ray images were published by the State Revenue Committee of Armenia on Facebook (link below). The X-ray image was likely made at Bagratashen on either 27 September or 1 October.
facebook.com/petekamutner/p…
15/ Some commentators have misinterpreted this X-ray as showing the alleged bomb truck or have misattributed it as coming from the Russians. The image comes from Armenia and is of the Georgian DAF truck, not the truck that exploded, which was a different model entirely.
16/ Having entered Georgia again, the truck entered Russia at the Verkhniy Lars checkpoint in North Ossetia – the only open border crossing between the two countries. Curiously, it arrived there only on 5 October. What Terjanyan was doing in the intervening 4 days is not stated. Image
17/ The DAF truck was then driven 434km from Verkhniy Lars to Armavir, a city in Russia's southern Krasnodar Krai region (which lies to the east of Crimea). It arrived at the warehouse of a company called Agro-Business. Image
18/ The company is reportedly owned by Georgy Azatyan, a native of Makiivka (near Donetsk city in occupied eastern Ukraine), and his father Samvel. Another son, Artyom, is a lawyer in Simferopol in Crimea. Image
19/ Artyom reportedly called his father to ask him to accept the cargo for a day on behalf of a friend. This was not communicated to Georgy and the cargo arrived unexpectedly on 6 October. It didn't cause a problem as there was plenty of room in the warehouse.
20/ Terjanyan handed the warehouse operator a pile of invoices but they were not read or signed by the receiver. The cargo was unloaded in the warehouse, where it was to remain overnight.
21/ On the same day, Thursday 6 October, the cargo became the subject of a delivery order posted on ATI (), a Russian freight exchange website, by an Ulyanovsk-based company called TEK-34, with a contact listed as 'Oleg'. ati.su
Image
22/ The cargo was listed as a 'container and packaging'. It was to be delivered to Simferopol, Crimea on 7 October (probably not coincidentally, Vladimir Putin's birthday). The named recipient was a non-existent company supposedly based in Crimea.
23/ TEK-34 seems to have a curious history. It reportedly received good customer reviews between 2009–2020, when it was active, but ceased operating at the end of 2020 when it was sold to a man named Oleg Antipov. It was delisted in 2021 for not having a valid legal address.
24/ In March 2022 it 'came back to life', obtaining a legal address and registering for tax and pensions payments. However, it reportedly did not engage in any activity.
25/ Ten minutes after the job was posted on ATI, Azerbaijan-born truck driver Mahir Yusubov accepted it for a fee of 48,000 rubles ($753). It was removed from ATI shortly afterwards. Yusubov had moved from Kazan to Krasnodar two years ago. He was married and had three children. Image
26/ Prior to taking the job on 6 October, Yusubov had spent all of September driving around the Krasnodar region making deliveries. His movements were recorded on cameras in the region. Image
27/ On 7 October, Yusubov drove from Kanevskoy in the north of the region to Armavir, arriving at the warehouse at lunchtime. The cargo was loaded onto his truck, an International ProStar with 870,000 km on the clock, using the warehouse's mechanical loader. Image
28/ Yusubov was last spotted in Armavir at 16:04. Although the contract required him to deliver the cargo to Simferopol on 7 October, he stopped instead at the village of Svetlyi Put about 99 km from the Crimea Bridge, where he was spotted at 23:06. He likely slept in his truck. Image
29/ Yusubov was next seen in the village of Strelka, en route to the Crimea Bridge, at 05:00 on 8 October. At 05:52 he crossed onto the bridge, and at 06:03 his truck exploded. /end Image
Sources:

















dnevnik.bg/bulgaria/2022/…
dnevnik.bg/sviat/voinata_…
dnevnik.bg/bulgaria/2022/…
newsarmenia.am/news/armenia/v…
facebook.com/petekamutner/p…
bbc.com/russian/news-6…
vlasti.info/news/50453-sta…
vlasti.info/news/50380-sta…
vlasti.info/news/50388-vod…
vlasti.info/news/50580-v_f…
t.me/breakingmash/3…
Summary timeline here:
The reported suspects, according to Russian media:
CCTV video and annotated stills from the Armenians showing the cargo's passage through their country:
Further suspects arrested:
Supplementary thread apparently confirming how the Ukrainians did it:
Source report for the above: nv.ua/ukr/ukraine/ev…

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More from @ChrisO_wiki

ChrisO_wiki Profile picture
Jun 3
1/ The Russian-occupied city of Donetsk in eastern Ukraine is under a 'drone siege', according to local inhabitants. Ukrainian drones are striking targets across the city and the surrounding region. A resident provides a vivid eyewitness account. ⬇️
2/ 'Donetsk MartynoVa', a pro-Russian resident of Donetsk who positions herself as an influencer and Telegram blogger, has been writing about the deteriorating situation over the past month. On 11 May, she wrote:
3/ "The news brings information that drones are already harassing the land corridor, but, judging by the number of cars from Crimea, this doesn't stop many [travellers]."

By 18 May, the drone campaign had been stepped up:
Read 55 tweets
ChrisO_wiki Profile picture
Jun 2
1/ Russia's captured and corrupted bureaucracy, which is under the thumb of powerful industrial concerns and complicit politicians, is strangling independent developers of military electronics. Several developers are complaining about the situation. ⬇️ Image
2/ Gagaring Lab, a developer of drone detectors and other military electronics, highlights how the 'People's Military-Industrial Complex' is being throttled:

"China launched a new strategy in February. China wants to be not only the world's factory, but also its laboratory."
3/ "Programmes have been launched to attract R&D companies to China. In Russian: welcome, developers, we will create the conditions for you. And here, people are worried about developers running away, but not about entire companies running away.

Strange.
Read 20 tweets
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Jun 2
1/ News that Russia's BMPT Terminator, famed for its wobbly autocannons, is to be renamed the Spirodon has attracted criticism from Russian warbloggers. Perhaps not coincidentally, Spirodon also was the first name of Vladimir Putin's paternal grandfather. ⬇️ Image
2/ According to Uralvagonzavod's official channel, "The machine, which replaces an entire unit, no longer bears the nickname of the American destroyer robot. It is our shield and sword."
3/ The official announcement says that the change in name was made "at the request of Uralvagonzavod workers (part of Rostec) and combat vehicle crews ... in honour of courage, resilience, and strength of spirit."

"Why "Spiridon"? This is a rare but revered name in Russia."
Read 16 tweets
ChrisO_wiki Profile picture
Jun 2
1/ Russia may be forced back to its 1991 borders as the Ukraine war turns against it, a Russian warblogger warns in a gloomy commentary. The prospects of a ceasefire on the current line of contact are slipping away and the threat to Russia itself is increasing. ⬇️ Image
2/ 'Tulenkov', a Russian former soldier who fought in Ukraine, writes:

"As far as I can tell from my understanding of the situation on the battlefields of the Special Military Operaion, we've already lost sight of the option of freezing the line of contact."
3/ "Currently, it's of no interest to the enemy and its masters.

Until they fully exploit the capabilities of Palantir and other Karpov-like ideas, no one will put the war on hold.

Therefore, the next stage of real negotiations will be the 1991 borders.
Read 13 tweets
ChrisO_wiki Profile picture
Jun 1
1/ Russian soldiers in Ukraine are unhappy that army health and safety inspectors have ordered them to tear down their camouflage nets because they are too flammable. They've been told to put up bright red fire safety equipment instead. ⬇️ Image
2/ 'Unofficial Bezsonov' complains:

"A commission from Moscow visited some of our units' temporary deployment locations. They ordered us to remove camouflage nets, as they violate fire safety regulations, and to hang up red signs like these."
3/ "Friends, these are frontline zones where our soldiers are trying to deploy secretly.

The war is five years old, but the number of differently-talented people serving on these commissions hasn't decreased.
Read 4 tweets
ChrisO_wiki Profile picture
Jun 1
1/ A fuel shortage is expanding across Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine due to Ukraine's drone strikes. The Russian warblogger 'Two Majors' reports that it is degrading Russian combat capabilities across the Donbas front lines, as well as in the south. ⬇️
2/ On Telegram, 'Two Majors' writes:

"The problem is broader than just the land corridor to Crimea.

The destruction of our logistics to an operational depth of up to 200 km creates problems not only with the fuel supply to Crimea, as esteemed Comrade Rybar writes."
3/ "The operations of Ukrainian drones over the roads of the long-suffering Donbas are no less serious, although less publicised. This is understandable, as people don't go to Donetsk for summer vacations.
Read 18 tweets

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