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Oct 12, 2022 37 tweets 14 min read Read on X
1/ With the news today that Russia has arrested eight people as suspects for the bombing of the Crimea Bridge on 8 October, I thought it would be useful to try to piece together a full account of the Russian narrative, as I've not yet seen it in Western sources. Long 🧵 follows. Image
2/ I'm not endorsing this account – aspects have already been disputed – but it's worth looking at what regional media reports are saying. The Russians say that a truck bomb caused the blast; western experts have endorsed this theory (see below).
3/ According to the Russians, the cargo was sent from Odesa in Ukraine to Ruse on the Bulgarian border in early August 2022. It travelled via Romania and likely Moldova, sent under a contract with Kyiv-based company Translogistik UA to a company called Baltex Capital SA. Image
4/ Bulgarian National Radio reports that Baltex is registered in Panama, not Bulgaria. Its customs representatives are a Bulgarian forwarding company called Tivacom. Baltex instructed it to be sent to an Armenian company called Gu AR G Group.
5/ The Bulgarian newspaper Dnevnik reports that the cargo went to the Bulgarian port of Burgas, from where it was shipped by ferry to Poti in Georgia. It arrived there on 26 September. Image
6/ Armenian media reports say it was driven from Poti to Armenia in a Georgian-registered DAF truck driven by Artur Terjanyan, an Armenian-Georgian citizen. It arrived at the Bagratashen border post at 14:53 on 27 September, where it was inspected and X-rayed. Image
7/ No irregularities were found. The cargo was then driven to the Alliance Terminal, a customs warehouse on the outskirts of Yerevan, arriving on the same day at 22:46. It remained there temporarily before it was inspected again on 29 September and documents were submitted. Image
8/ According to the manifest, which the Russians have published, the cargo comprised 22 pallets with a total weight of 22,770 kg (50,200 lb) of Acrylonitrile Butadiene Styrene edge banding (used to finish the sides and ends of wood-based materials), stacked in rolls.
9/ Marked with "Made in China" stickers, the cargo was photographed and inspected by the Armenians. The lamination of one of the rolls of ABS plastic was checked to verify that it was correctly classified according to the trade rules.


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10/ I haven't seen any clear explanation for why the truck went to Armenia. It might well be related to the fact that when it entered Armenia, customs checks were done under Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) customs rules, which also cover Russia. Georgia isn't a member. Image
11/ This may have provided a back door route into Russia – checks done at the EEU economic border presumably do not have to be redone at the Russian border if a cargo travels from one EEU country to another.
12/ The Armenian authorities say that the customs service at the Ararat Regional Customs House in Yerevan certified the cargo as being "goods of the EEU" on 30 September and issued a transit declaration. This likely made it easier to bring it into Russia. Image
13/ While at the Alliance Terminal, according to the Armenians, the truck was under camera surveillance for the whole time. It was neither loaded nor unloaded, nor was anything else added. It left Armenia at 00:38 on 1 October via the Bagratashen border post, again being X-rayed.
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14/ The pictures of the truck above and the X-ray images were published by the State Revenue Committee of Armenia on Facebook (link below). The X-ray image was likely made at Bagratashen on either 27 September or 1 October.
facebook.com/petekamutner/p…
15/ Some commentators have misinterpreted this X-ray as showing the alleged bomb truck or have misattributed it as coming from the Russians. The image comes from Armenia and is of the Georgian DAF truck, not the truck that exploded, which was a different model entirely.
16/ Having entered Georgia again, the truck entered Russia at the Verkhniy Lars checkpoint in North Ossetia – the only open border crossing between the two countries. Curiously, it arrived there only on 5 October. What Terjanyan was doing in the intervening 4 days is not stated. Image
17/ The DAF truck was then driven 434km from Verkhniy Lars to Armavir, a city in Russia's southern Krasnodar Krai region (which lies to the east of Crimea). It arrived at the warehouse of a company called Agro-Business. Image
18/ The company is reportedly owned by Georgy Azatyan, a native of Makiivka (near Donetsk city in occupied eastern Ukraine), and his father Samvel. Another son, Artyom, is a lawyer in Simferopol in Crimea. Image
19/ Artyom reportedly called his father to ask him to accept the cargo for a day on behalf of a friend. This was not communicated to Georgy and the cargo arrived unexpectedly on 6 October. It didn't cause a problem as there was plenty of room in the warehouse.
20/ Terjanyan handed the warehouse operator a pile of invoices but they were not read or signed by the receiver. The cargo was unloaded in the warehouse, where it was to remain overnight.
21/ On the same day, Thursday 6 October, the cargo became the subject of a delivery order posted on ATI (), a Russian freight exchange website, by an Ulyanovsk-based company called TEK-34, with a contact listed as 'Oleg'. ati.su
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22/ The cargo was listed as a 'container and packaging'. It was to be delivered to Simferopol, Crimea on 7 October (probably not coincidentally, Vladimir Putin's birthday). The named recipient was a non-existent company supposedly based in Crimea.
23/ TEK-34 seems to have a curious history. It reportedly received good customer reviews between 2009–2020, when it was active, but ceased operating at the end of 2020 when it was sold to a man named Oleg Antipov. It was delisted in 2021 for not having a valid legal address.
24/ In March 2022 it 'came back to life', obtaining a legal address and registering for tax and pensions payments. However, it reportedly did not engage in any activity.
25/ Ten minutes after the job was posted on ATI, Azerbaijan-born truck driver Mahir Yusubov accepted it for a fee of 48,000 rubles ($753). It was removed from ATI shortly afterwards. Yusubov had moved from Kazan to Krasnodar two years ago. He was married and had three children. Image
26/ Prior to taking the job on 6 October, Yusubov had spent all of September driving around the Krasnodar region making deliveries. His movements were recorded on cameras in the region. Image
27/ On 7 October, Yusubov drove from Kanevskoy in the north of the region to Armavir, arriving at the warehouse at lunchtime. The cargo was loaded onto his truck, an International ProStar with 870,000 km on the clock, using the warehouse's mechanical loader. Image
28/ Yusubov was last spotted in Armavir at 16:04. Although the contract required him to deliver the cargo to Simferopol on 7 October, he stopped instead at the village of Svetlyi Put about 99 km from the Crimea Bridge, where he was spotted at 23:06. He likely slept in his truck. Image
29/ Yusubov was next seen in the village of Strelka, en route to the Crimea Bridge, at 05:00 on 8 October. At 05:52 he crossed onto the bridge, and at 06:03 his truck exploded. /end Image
The reported suspects, according to Russian media:
CCTV video and annotated stills from the Armenians showing the cargo's passage through their country:
Supplementary thread apparently confirming how the Ukrainians did it:
Source report for the above: nv.ua/ukr/ukraine/ev…

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More from @ChrisO_wiki

Dec 8
1/ Injured Russian stormtroopers say they have to lie in their own blood, pus and feces while under armed guard in hospitals that are more like prisons. They get expensive, inedible food which they have to pay for themselves, and are sent back to fight before they are healed. ⬇️ Image
2/ A Russian stormtrooper who has been seriously injured twice describes the grim conditions in the hospital where he has been sent. His account is consistent with accounts from other men of overcrowded, insanitary facilities for the war wounded.
3/ Such reports indicate a medical system which is under severe strain from the sheer number of wounded – likely hundreds a day – who need treatment. Many soldiers have taken advantage of hospitalisation to desert, which likely explains the armed guards.
Read 17 tweets
Dec 8
1/ Russia's decision to block Roblox and other popular apps will backfire on the government, a Russian warblogger warns. He asks why the state is willing to "antagonise HUGE swathes of a warring nation" by taking away its "last bit of joy". ⬇️ Image
2/ 'SHAKESPEARE' writes:

"Our tight-knit "good state" blocked Roblox. I have no idea what that is. But it has over 18 million unique users in Russia .

Again: 18,000,000 of our people."
3/ And at the same time, the same "good state" started blocking VPNs. Currently, it's the three most popular protocols. People mainly use them to watch YouTube and torrent.
Read 7 tweets
Dec 8
1/ So-called 'black commanders' are confiscating Russian soldiers' salary cards, then sending them to their deaths, failing to report them missing or killed, and stealing their salaries. This scam is reportedly widespread and has prompted many complaints from soldiers. ⬇️ Image
2/ The 'Brothers in Arms' Telegram channel describes how the scam works:

"'Black commanders' are those who do not report soldiers as missing when communication is lost or a soldier is killed."
3/ "On paper, the person is still listed, and money continues to be deposited into their account. But who has the card? Take a guess. Modern-day “dead souls,” damn it.
Read 19 tweets
Dec 6
1/ A Russian convict soldier has described the gruelling and deadly experience of serving in a 'Storm V' assault unit, from initial training, to facing swarms of Ukrainian drones, and being the only survivor of a bloody battle against dug-in and determined Ukrainian forces. ⬇️ Image
2/ Russian warblogger 'Maxim Kalashnikov' publishes the account of a Storm V soldier of his acquaintance:

"We weren't trained for long. At the Markovka training ground, the instructors, tired of repeating the same thing over and over again, don't care how you're trained."
3/ "The main thing for them is that there are no injuries or accidental hits on their own during shooting. However, these were rare. What did they teach us? Who knows? How did they teach us? Not at all from the point of view of survivability and combat effectiveness.
Read 37 tweets
Dec 5
1/ Russians who were mobilised in 2022-23 and have survived to the present day may not live much longer, as they are reportedly being formed into assault squads, where they will likely be sent to their deaths. This is forecast to lead to a bribery bonanza for commanders. ⬇️ Image
2/ The 'Vault 8' Telegram channel reports:

"Bad news is coming from two directions—the "North" group and Zaporizhzhia."
3/ "There, the threat of "[sign a] contract or [go to an] assault" for mobilised soldiers has shifted to shady tactics: removing mobilised soldiers from the unit's roster and preparing them for transfer.
Read 11 tweets
Dec 5
1/ Civilians under Russian occupation in the Luhansk region are starving and dying of cold because of a breakdown in essential services under the 'Luhansk People's Republic' (LPR), according to a complaint by a Russian warblogger. ⬇️ Image
2/ A significant number of Ukrainians – many of them elderly people, who grew up under the Soviet Union and often still hold pro-Russian views – still live in the frontline Svatove and Kreminna districts. However, they now have no electricity and conditions are reportedly dire. Image
3/ 'Veterans' Notes' warns that the region faces 'mass casualties' among the civilian population – who are now regarded by the occupation authorities as Russian citizens – if urgent action is not taken to restore power:
Read 14 tweets

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