1/ With the news today that Russia has arrested eight people as suspects for the bombing of the Crimea Bridge on 8 October, I thought it would be useful to try to piece together a full account of the Russian narrative, as I've not yet seen it in Western sources. Long 🧵 follows.
2/ I'm not endorsing this account – aspects have already been disputed – but it's worth looking at what regional media reports are saying. The Russians say that a truck bomb caused the blast; western experts have endorsed this theory (see below).
3/ According to the Russians, the cargo was sent from Odesa in Ukraine to Ruse on the Bulgarian border in early August 2022. It travelled via Romania and likely Moldova, sent under a contract with Kyiv-based company Translogistik UA to a company called Baltex Capital SA.
4/ Bulgarian National Radio reports that Baltex is registered in Panama, not Bulgaria. Its customs representatives are a Bulgarian forwarding company called Tivacom. Baltex instructed it to be sent to an Armenian company called Gu AR G Group.
5/ The Bulgarian newspaper Dnevnik reports that the cargo went to the Bulgarian port of Burgas, from where it was shipped by ferry to Poti in Georgia. It arrived there on 26 September.
6/ Armenian media reports say it was driven from Poti to Armenia in a Georgian-registered DAF truck driven by Artur Terjanyan, an Armenian-Georgian citizen. It arrived at the Bagratashen border post at 14:53 on 27 September, where it was inspected and X-rayed.
7/ No irregularities were found. The cargo was then driven to the Alliance Terminal, a customs warehouse on the outskirts of Yerevan, arriving on the same day at 22:46. It remained there temporarily before it was inspected again on 29 September and documents were submitted.
8/ According to the manifest, which the Russians have published, the cargo comprised 22 pallets with a total weight of 22,770 kg (50,200 lb) of Acrylonitrile Butadiene Styrene edge banding (used to finish the sides and ends of wood-based materials), stacked in rolls.
9/ Marked with "Made in China" stickers, the cargo was photographed and inspected by the Armenians. The lamination of one of the rolls of ABS plastic was checked to verify that it was correctly classified according to the trade rules.
10/ I haven't seen any clear explanation for why the truck went to Armenia. It might well be related to the fact that when it entered Armenia, customs checks were done under Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) customs rules, which also cover Russia. Georgia isn't a member.
11/ This may have provided a back door route into Russia – checks done at the EEU economic border presumably do not have to be redone at the Russian border if a cargo travels from one EEU country to another.
12/ The Armenian authorities say that the customs service at the Ararat Regional Customs House in Yerevan certified the cargo as being "goods of the EEU" on 30 September and issued a transit declaration. This likely made it easier to bring it into Russia.
13/ While at the Alliance Terminal, according to the Armenians, the truck was under camera surveillance for the whole time. It was neither loaded nor unloaded, nor was anything else added. It left Armenia at 00:38 on 1 October via the Bagratashen border post, again being X-rayed.
14/ The pictures of the truck above and the X-ray images were published by the State Revenue Committee of Armenia on Facebook (link below). The X-ray image was likely made at Bagratashen on either 27 September or 1 October. facebook.com/petekamutner/p…
15/ Some commentators have misinterpreted this X-ray as showing the alleged bomb truck or have misattributed it as coming from the Russians. The image comes from Armenia and is of the Georgian DAF truck, not the truck that exploded, which was a different model entirely.
16/ Having entered Georgia again, the truck entered Russia at the Verkhniy Lars checkpoint in North Ossetia – the only open border crossing between the two countries. Curiously, it arrived there only on 5 October. What Terjanyan was doing in the intervening 4 days is not stated.
17/ The DAF truck was then driven 434km from Verkhniy Lars to Armavir, a city in Russia's southern Krasnodar Krai region (which lies to the east of Crimea). It arrived at the warehouse of a company called Agro-Business.
18/ The company is reportedly owned by Georgy Azatyan, a native of Makiivka (near Donetsk city in occupied eastern Ukraine), and his father Samvel. Another son, Artyom, is a lawyer in Simferopol in Crimea.
19/ Artyom reportedly called his father to ask him to accept the cargo for a day on behalf of a friend. This was not communicated to Georgy and the cargo arrived unexpectedly on 6 October. It didn't cause a problem as there was plenty of room in the warehouse.
20/ Terjanyan handed the warehouse operator a pile of invoices but they were not read or signed by the receiver. The cargo was unloaded in the warehouse, where it was to remain overnight.
21/ On the same day, Thursday 6 October, the cargo became the subject of a delivery order posted on ATI (), a Russian freight exchange website, by an Ulyanovsk-based company called TEK-34, with a contact listed as 'Oleg'. ati.su
22/ The cargo was listed as a 'container and packaging'. It was to be delivered to Simferopol, Crimea on 7 October (probably not coincidentally, Vladimir Putin's birthday). The named recipient was a non-existent company supposedly based in Crimea.
23/ TEK-34 seems to have a curious history. It reportedly received good customer reviews between 2009–2020, when it was active, but ceased operating at the end of 2020 when it was sold to a man named Oleg Antipov. It was delisted in 2021 for not having a valid legal address.
24/ In March 2022 it 'came back to life', obtaining a legal address and registering for tax and pensions payments. However, it reportedly did not engage in any activity.
25/ Ten minutes after the job was posted on ATI, Azerbaijan-born truck driver Mahir Yusubov accepted it for a fee of 48,000 rubles ($753). It was removed from ATI shortly afterwards. Yusubov had moved from Kazan to Krasnodar two years ago. He was married and had three children.
26/ Prior to taking the job on 6 October, Yusubov had spent all of September driving around the Krasnodar region making deliveries. His movements were recorded on cameras in the region.
27/ On 7 October, Yusubov drove from Kanevskoy in the north of the region to Armavir, arriving at the warehouse at lunchtime. The cargo was loaded onto his truck, an International ProStar with 870,000 km on the clock, using the warehouse's mechanical loader.
28/ Yusubov was last spotted in Armavir at 16:04. Although the contract required him to deliver the cargo to Simferopol on 7 October, he stopped instead at the village of Svetlyi Put about 99 km from the Crimea Bridge, where he was spotted at 23:06. He likely slept in his truck.
29/ Yusubov was next seen in the village of Strelka, en route to the Crimea Bridge, at 05:00 on 8 October. At 05:52 he crossed onto the bridge, and at 06:03 his truck exploded. /end
1/ Vladimir Putin's heavy investment in the regime of Venezuelan former President Nicolás Maduro has been a costly and disastrous failure, according to Russian commentators. They admit that Russia is too weak to stop its allies from being picked off one by one by the West. ⬇️
2/ Maxim Kalashnikov is scathing about what the fall of Maduro means for Russian foreign policy, saying that it "marks the collapse of the Russian leadership's long-standing PR-fueled foreign policy."
3/ "For a long time, it resembled a fireworks display: much noise and hype, but no real benefit to the development and industrialisation of the Russian Federation, or to the reunification of the Russian people.
1/ It wouldn't be a real Christmas without a gloomy forecast from Igor 'Strelkov' Girkin, Russia's answer to the Ghost of Christmas Yet to Come. He sees Trump turning against Russia in 2026, anticipates the loss of Transnistria, and predicts a naval blockade by the EU. ⬇️
2/ Writing from his jail cell, Girkin predicts a deteriorating outlook for Russia and its war effort in Ukraine during 2026:
"Naturally, no compromise will be reached this year, because it can't be. I hope this has finally sunk in on everyone on the Planet of the Pink Ponies."
3/ "The situation will continue to escalate. I believe that after some time, Trump will demand that we accept the plan agreed upon with the US and Ukraine.
1/ Russian warbloggers are furious and chagrined that the US has done to Maduro and Venezuela what their country has failed to do over four years to Zelenskyy and Ukraine. They say it shows Russia's weakness and condemn the Venezuelans for failing to fight. ⬇️
2/ 'Donetsk Infantry' is frankly envious: "Shoigu and Gerasimov, along with generals from the FSB, SVR, and GRU, are watching and asking, 'Was that even possible?' Some can do it, while others are left with sclerosis, constipation, and comic-book reports. Who studied what?"
3/ 'Shakespeare' laments that "they simply exterminated the political leadership of an independent and sovereign country. And this is against the backdrop of "our harsh response to Ukraine," which we're all expecting in the fourth year of the war,…
1/ What does the apparent capture of Venezuela's President Maduro by US forces mean for the country and wider geopolitics? In all likelihood, not much: it's more likely to be a typical Trumpian made-for-TV production than a turning point. Here's why. ⬇️
2/ According to information from the Trump Administration relayed by Senator Mike Lee, the current operation is focused only on arresting Maduro, and no further action is expected.
3/ This means that the Maduro regime essentially remains intact, without its head. The speed with which he has been captured strongly suggests that he was sold out by his own regime, likely in exchange for personal assurances for regime members.
1/ Thousands of Russian soldiers have likely been killed by their own side, with 300 men said to have been murdered in one unit alone. The story of one commander who was killed by another, who was then also killed, highlights an ongoing epidemic of murder, torture and robbery. ⬇️
2/ A recent report by The New York Times describes how families of Russian soldiers made 6,000 confidential complaints in only six months between April and September 2025. They were accidentally leaked by the office of the Russian human rights ombudsman.
3/ The complaints cover a wide range of abuses, many of which have been separately documented by soldiers themselves in videos posted on social media or released (likely posthumously) by their relatives.
1/ A memorial to African-American soldiers who fought to liberate the Netherlands in World War II was removed to comply with Trump Administration anti-DEI policies, according to newly released records, contradicting later claims about the reasons for the removal. ⬇️
2/ In November 2025, it emerged that the American Battle Monuments Commission (ABMC) had quietly removed two panels memorialising Black soldiers at the Margraten war cemetery in Limburg. The cemetery itself had been created through their labor.
3/ This prompted an immediate outcry across the Dutch political spectrum. Campaigners in Limburg had pushed for years for the role of African-American liberators to be commemorated after it was overlooked or ignored by consecutive US Administrations.