1/ With the news today that Russia has arrested eight people as suspects for the bombing of the Crimea Bridge on 8 October, I thought it would be useful to try to piece together a full account of the Russian narrative, as I've not yet seen it in Western sources. Long 🧵 follows.
2/ I'm not endorsing this account – aspects have already been disputed – but it's worth looking at what regional media reports are saying. The Russians say that a truck bomb caused the blast; western experts have endorsed this theory (see below).
3/ According to the Russians, the cargo was sent from Odesa in Ukraine to Ruse on the Bulgarian border in early August 2022. It travelled via Romania and likely Moldova, sent under a contract with Kyiv-based company Translogistik UA to a company called Baltex Capital SA.
4/ Bulgarian National Radio reports that Baltex is registered in Panama, not Bulgaria. Its customs representatives are a Bulgarian forwarding company called Tivacom. Baltex instructed it to be sent to an Armenian company called Gu AR G Group.
5/ The Bulgarian newspaper Dnevnik reports that the cargo went to the Bulgarian port of Burgas, from where it was shipped by ferry to Poti in Georgia. It arrived there on 26 September.
6/ Armenian media reports say it was driven from Poti to Armenia in a Georgian-registered DAF truck driven by Artur Terjanyan, an Armenian-Georgian citizen. It arrived at the Bagratashen border post at 14:53 on 27 September, where it was inspected and X-rayed.
7/ No irregularities were found. The cargo was then driven to the Alliance Terminal, a customs warehouse on the outskirts of Yerevan, arriving on the same day at 22:46. It remained there temporarily before it was inspected again on 29 September and documents were submitted.
8/ According to the manifest, which the Russians have published, the cargo comprised 22 pallets with a total weight of 22,770 kg (50,200 lb) of Acrylonitrile Butadiene Styrene edge banding (used to finish the sides and ends of wood-based materials), stacked in rolls.
9/ Marked with "Made in China" stickers, the cargo was photographed and inspected by the Armenians. The lamination of one of the rolls of ABS plastic was checked to verify that it was correctly classified according to the trade rules.
10/ I haven't seen any clear explanation for why the truck went to Armenia. It might well be related to the fact that when it entered Armenia, customs checks were done under Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) customs rules, which also cover Russia. Georgia isn't a member.
11/ This may have provided a back door route into Russia – checks done at the EEU economic border presumably do not have to be redone at the Russian border if a cargo travels from one EEU country to another.
12/ The Armenian authorities say that the customs service at the Ararat Regional Customs House in Yerevan certified the cargo as being "goods of the EEU" on 30 September and issued a transit declaration. This likely made it easier to bring it into Russia.
13/ While at the Alliance Terminal, according to the Armenians, the truck was under camera surveillance for the whole time. It was neither loaded nor unloaded, nor was anything else added. It left Armenia at 00:38 on 1 October via the Bagratashen border post, again being X-rayed.
14/ The pictures of the truck above and the X-ray images were published by the State Revenue Committee of Armenia on Facebook (link below). The X-ray image was likely made at Bagratashen on either 27 September or 1 October. facebook.com/petekamutner/p…
15/ Some commentators have misinterpreted this X-ray as showing the alleged bomb truck or have misattributed it as coming from the Russians. The image comes from Armenia and is of the Georgian DAF truck, not the truck that exploded, which was a different model entirely.
16/ Having entered Georgia again, the truck entered Russia at the Verkhniy Lars checkpoint in North Ossetia – the only open border crossing between the two countries. Curiously, it arrived there only on 5 October. What Terjanyan was doing in the intervening 4 days is not stated.
17/ The DAF truck was then driven 434km from Verkhniy Lars to Armavir, a city in Russia's southern Krasnodar Krai region (which lies to the east of Crimea). It arrived at the warehouse of a company called Agro-Business.
18/ The company is reportedly owned by Georgy Azatyan, a native of Makiivka (near Donetsk city in occupied eastern Ukraine), and his father Samvel. Another son, Artyom, is a lawyer in Simferopol in Crimea.
19/ Artyom reportedly called his father to ask him to accept the cargo for a day on behalf of a friend. This was not communicated to Georgy and the cargo arrived unexpectedly on 6 October. It didn't cause a problem as there was plenty of room in the warehouse.
20/ Terjanyan handed the warehouse operator a pile of invoices but they were not read or signed by the receiver. The cargo was unloaded in the warehouse, where it was to remain overnight.
21/ On the same day, Thursday 6 October, the cargo became the subject of a delivery order posted on ATI (), a Russian freight exchange website, by an Ulyanovsk-based company called TEK-34, with a contact listed as 'Oleg'. ati.su
22/ The cargo was listed as a 'container and packaging'. It was to be delivered to Simferopol, Crimea on 7 October (probably not coincidentally, Vladimir Putin's birthday). The named recipient was a non-existent company supposedly based in Crimea.
23/ TEK-34 seems to have a curious history. It reportedly received good customer reviews between 2009–2020, when it was active, but ceased operating at the end of 2020 when it was sold to a man named Oleg Antipov. It was delisted in 2021 for not having a valid legal address.
24/ In March 2022 it 'came back to life', obtaining a legal address and registering for tax and pensions payments. However, it reportedly did not engage in any activity.
25/ Ten minutes after the job was posted on ATI, Azerbaijan-born truck driver Mahir Yusubov accepted it for a fee of 48,000 rubles ($753). It was removed from ATI shortly afterwards. Yusubov had moved from Kazan to Krasnodar two years ago. He was married and had three children.
26/ Prior to taking the job on 6 October, Yusubov had spent all of September driving around the Krasnodar region making deliveries. His movements were recorded on cameras in the region.
27/ On 7 October, Yusubov drove from Kanevskoy in the north of the region to Armavir, arriving at the warehouse at lunchtime. The cargo was loaded onto his truck, an International ProStar with 870,000 km on the clock, using the warehouse's mechanical loader.
28/ Yusubov was last spotted in Armavir at 16:04. Although the contract required him to deliver the cargo to Simferopol on 7 October, he stopped instead at the village of Svetlyi Put about 99 km from the Crimea Bridge, where he was spotted at 23:06. He likely slept in his truck.
29/ Yusubov was next seen in the village of Strelka, en route to the Crimea Bridge, at 05:00 on 8 October. At 05:52 he crossed onto the bridge, and at 06:03 his truck exploded. /end
1/ Russia has "shot itself in the dick" with its block on Telegram, according to a scathing commentary. A Russian warblogger notes that pro-Kremlin propagandists have seen huge falls in views of their Telegram channels, but not dissident and pro-Ukraine channels. ⬇️
2/ Komsomolskaya Pravda journalist Dmitry Steshin calls it "a day of celebration for foreign agents, as the audience for pro-Russian channels on Telegram has plummeted."
3/ "Margarita Simonyan saw a 52.3% drop, while propagandist Alexander Sladkov saw a 49.4% drop. Views for ‘RT in Russian’ fell by 42%, whilst those for propagandists Vladimir Solovyov and Pavel Zarubin fell by 47.2% and 42.7% respectively.
1/ In a further sign of an economic slump in Russia, the giant vehicle manufacturer AvtoVAZ will shut down production entirely for 17 days due to falling demand and overcrowded warehouses. Its vehicles aren't selling and storage facilities are overflowing. ⬇️
2/ The Russian news outlet Mash reports that AvtoVAZ will shut down its assembly lines for almost the entire period from 27 April to 17 May, with the workforce sent on mandatory leave.
3/ Workers will be sent to do maintenance work between 27-30 April, 12-13 May will be covered by a postponement of vacation days from December, and staff will be paid at two-thirds their normal salary on 14-15 May.
1/ Brutally murdering women in front of their children has effectively been legalised in Russia, due to the Russian government's policy of allowing pre-trial detainees to go to Ukraine to fight rather than facing justice. A horrific case from Voronezh highlights the problem. ⬇️
2/ Madina Nikolaevna Mironenko, a 42-year-old soldier's widow and mother of four children, was dragged out of her house by her hair and stabbed to death by a masked neighbour, in front of her nine-year-old daughter. Another neighbour witnessed the attack and recognised the man.
3/ A group of soldiers' relatives in Voronezh has written an open letter to the authorities:
"There are 220 of us (each of us can write to you personally if necessary), we are relatives of those who, at the call and behest of their hearts,…
1/ The late governor of Russia's Kursk region, Roman Starovoit, is said to have received huge cash bribes in grocery bags of food and alcohol, and stole 100 million rubles ($1.2 million) from the budget assigned to build fortifications along the border with Ukraine. ⬇️
2/ Starovoit, who shot himself on 7 July 2025 shortly before he was due to be charged for fraud, has been the subject of testimony given by Alexey Smirnov, his also-indicted deputy and successor. Smirnov says that he and his own deputy also took bribes.
3/ The fortifications were swept aside with ease by Ukrainian forces when they invaded the Kursk region in August 2024. Subsequent Russian investigations found that much of the money allocated to the defences had been stolen.
1/ Austria has become the latest European country to ban US military overflights related to the Iran war. The country's Defence Ministry has announced that it has refused "several" requests from the US government, citing Austria's Neutrality Law.
2/ A statement issued by the Austrian Federal Ministry of Defence says that it will not let the US use its airspace for military operations against Iran. Individual requests for overflights are being reviewed in consultation with the Austrian Foreign Ministry.
3/ According to Colonel Michael Bauer, "There have indeed been requests and they were refused from the outset". He adds that every time a similar request "involves a country at war, it is refused."
1/ Global oil and gas shortages are likely to persist for months, industry insiders are warning. This is due to shut-in, or idled, wells suffering progressive damage that is becoming increasingly severe as the Iran war drags on, leading to long delays in restarting production. ⬇️
2/ Wells manage the release of oil and gas that is under great pressure from underground reservoirs. While they are designed to throttle flow up and down as required and can be shut in for short periods for maintenance, they are not designed for indefinite shut-ins.
3/ Shut-ins put stress on the well structure, the machinery, and the reservoir itself. The effects include:
♦️ Casing and cement degradation: Wells are designed for active production, where fluid movement helps maintain pressure equilibrium.