1/ With the news today that Russia has arrested eight people as suspects for the bombing of the Crimea Bridge on 8 October, I thought it would be useful to try to piece together a full account of the Russian narrative, as I've not yet seen it in Western sources. Long 🧵 follows.
2/ I'm not endorsing this account – aspects have already been disputed – but it's worth looking at what regional media reports are saying. The Russians say that a truck bomb caused the blast; western experts have endorsed this theory (see below).
3/ According to the Russians, the cargo was sent from Odesa in Ukraine to Ruse on the Bulgarian border in early August 2022. It travelled via Romania and likely Moldova, sent under a contract with Kyiv-based company Translogistik UA to a company called Baltex Capital SA.
4/ Bulgarian National Radio reports that Baltex is registered in Panama, not Bulgaria. Its customs representatives are a Bulgarian forwarding company called Tivacom. Baltex instructed it to be sent to an Armenian company called Gu AR G Group.
5/ The Bulgarian newspaper Dnevnik reports that the cargo went to the Bulgarian port of Burgas, from where it was shipped by ferry to Poti in Georgia. It arrived there on 26 September.
6/ Armenian media reports say it was driven from Poti to Armenia in a Georgian-registered DAF truck driven by Artur Terjanyan, an Armenian-Georgian citizen. It arrived at the Bagratashen border post at 14:53 on 27 September, where it was inspected and X-rayed.
7/ No irregularities were found. The cargo was then driven to the Alliance Terminal, a customs warehouse on the outskirts of Yerevan, arriving on the same day at 22:46. It remained there temporarily before it was inspected again on 29 September and documents were submitted.
8/ According to the manifest, which the Russians have published, the cargo comprised 22 pallets with a total weight of 22,770 kg (50,200 lb) of Acrylonitrile Butadiene Styrene edge banding (used to finish the sides and ends of wood-based materials), stacked in rolls.
9/ Marked with "Made in China" stickers, the cargo was photographed and inspected by the Armenians. The lamination of one of the rolls of ABS plastic was checked to verify that it was correctly classified according to the trade rules.
10/ I haven't seen any clear explanation for why the truck went to Armenia. It might well be related to the fact that when it entered Armenia, customs checks were done under Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) customs rules, which also cover Russia. Georgia isn't a member.
11/ This may have provided a back door route into Russia – checks done at the EEU economic border presumably do not have to be redone at the Russian border if a cargo travels from one EEU country to another.
12/ The Armenian authorities say that the customs service at the Ararat Regional Customs House in Yerevan certified the cargo as being "goods of the EEU" on 30 September and issued a transit declaration. This likely made it easier to bring it into Russia.
13/ While at the Alliance Terminal, according to the Armenians, the truck was under camera surveillance for the whole time. It was neither loaded nor unloaded, nor was anything else added. It left Armenia at 00:38 on 1 October via the Bagratashen border post, again being X-rayed.
14/ The pictures of the truck above and the X-ray images were published by the State Revenue Committee of Armenia on Facebook (link below). The X-ray image was likely made at Bagratashen on either 27 September or 1 October. facebook.com/petekamutner/p…
15/ Some commentators have misinterpreted this X-ray as showing the alleged bomb truck or have misattributed it as coming from the Russians. The image comes from Armenia and is of the Georgian DAF truck, not the truck that exploded, which was a different model entirely.
16/ Having entered Georgia again, the truck entered Russia at the Verkhniy Lars checkpoint in North Ossetia – the only open border crossing between the two countries. Curiously, it arrived there only on 5 October. What Terjanyan was doing in the intervening 4 days is not stated.
17/ The DAF truck was then driven 434km from Verkhniy Lars to Armavir, a city in Russia's southern Krasnodar Krai region (which lies to the east of Crimea). It arrived at the warehouse of a company called Agro-Business.
18/ The company is reportedly owned by Georgy Azatyan, a native of Makiivka (near Donetsk city in occupied eastern Ukraine), and his father Samvel. Another son, Artyom, is a lawyer in Simferopol in Crimea.
19/ Artyom reportedly called his father to ask him to accept the cargo for a day on behalf of a friend. This was not communicated to Georgy and the cargo arrived unexpectedly on 6 October. It didn't cause a problem as there was plenty of room in the warehouse.
20/ Terjanyan handed the warehouse operator a pile of invoices but they were not read or signed by the receiver. The cargo was unloaded in the warehouse, where it was to remain overnight.
21/ On the same day, Thursday 6 October, the cargo became the subject of a delivery order posted on ATI (), a Russian freight exchange website, by an Ulyanovsk-based company called TEK-34, with a contact listed as 'Oleg'. ati.su
22/ The cargo was listed as a 'container and packaging'. It was to be delivered to Simferopol, Crimea on 7 October (probably not coincidentally, Vladimir Putin's birthday). The named recipient was a non-existent company supposedly based in Crimea.
23/ TEK-34 seems to have a curious history. It reportedly received good customer reviews between 2009–2020, when it was active, but ceased operating at the end of 2020 when it was sold to a man named Oleg Antipov. It was delisted in 2021 for not having a valid legal address.
24/ In March 2022 it 'came back to life', obtaining a legal address and registering for tax and pensions payments. However, it reportedly did not engage in any activity.
25/ Ten minutes after the job was posted on ATI, Azerbaijan-born truck driver Mahir Yusubov accepted it for a fee of 48,000 rubles ($753). It was removed from ATI shortly afterwards. Yusubov had moved from Kazan to Krasnodar two years ago. He was married and had three children.
26/ Prior to taking the job on 6 October, Yusubov had spent all of September driving around the Krasnodar region making deliveries. His movements were recorded on cameras in the region.
27/ On 7 October, Yusubov drove from Kanevskoy in the north of the region to Armavir, arriving at the warehouse at lunchtime. The cargo was loaded onto his truck, an International ProStar with 870,000 km on the clock, using the warehouse's mechanical loader.
28/ Yusubov was last spotted in Armavir at 16:04. Although the contract required him to deliver the cargo to Simferopol on 7 October, he stopped instead at the village of Svetlyi Put about 99 km from the Crimea Bridge, where he was spotted at 23:06. He likely slept in his truck.
29/ Yusubov was next seen in the village of Strelka, en route to the Crimea Bridge, at 05:00 on 8 October. At 05:52 he crossed onto the bridge, and at 06:03 his truck exploded. /end
1/ Ukraine's attacks on Russia's space communications complexes appear intended to systematically degrade the Russian military's ability to access satellite imagery and communications. Analysts say they'll have a serious impact on military capabilities. ⬇️
2/ Ukraine has so far carried out three attacks on Russia's space communication centers (SCCs) in the Moscow and Vladimir regions. The Dubna SCC was hit twice, on 22 and 30 June, and the Vladimir SCC in Gus-Khrustalny was hit on 24 June.
3/ At Vladimir, the main complex's 25-metre parabolic antenna and the antenna on the roof of the Main Hardware and Software Complex were both damaged. The central part of the latter complex also suffered significant damage, along with the Hardware and Technical Building No. 1.
1/ Despite fuel supposedly being reserved for the emergency services, a Russian medic says that the current fuel shortage is causing a crisis for ambulances, which are now standing idle. It's not our fault, she adds, and anyway, most ambulance users are useless time-wasters. ⬇️
2/ The 'Closed Agenda' Telegram channel publishes a video from Bryansk, which has been badly hit by the fuel shortage caused by Ukraine's drone strikes against Russian refineries. The channel is bitterly critical of the Russian authorities:
3/ "To the vast array of systemic difficulties doctors face daily, a reality unthinkable for a civilised country has now been added: emergency services don't have the gas to go and save lives.
1/ The Russian authorities are trying to address the current fuel crisis by persuading the population, improbably, that having a full tank of gas is dangerous. Russian bloggers are gleefully trashing what they see as a stunningly inept 'anti-crisis' campaign. ⬇️
2/ 'Alex Parker Returns' commends the government's mouthpieces for highlighting a hitherto unrecognised danger:
"It turns out that filling the tank to the brim is harmful to the car's health and can lead to its breakdown. A useful tip for car enthusiasts. Good advice."
3/ Sasha Kon recommends that the government should lean into old-fashioned homophobia to discourage drivers from buying excessive amounts of fuel:
1/ Igor 'Strelkov' Girkin warns that Ukraine's drone offensive is setting the conditions for a direct attack on Crimea, by chopping Russian forces in the south of Ukraine into isolated fragments with limited manoeuvrability caused by a lack of fuel. ⬇️
2/ In a new message on his Telegram channel, the imprisoned Girkin writes:
3/ "In principle, the situation is STILL developing STRICTLY WITHIN THE FRAMEWORK OF THE ENEMY'S STRATEGIC PLAN: our troops continue to exhaust themselves with any attacks in secondary (for the enemy) directions (especially since the Donetsk fortified region – or rather,…
1/ Ukraine is reported to be systematically targeting fluid catalytic cracking units at Russian oil refineries, aiming to destroy complex machinery that Russia can't repair itself and may take years to replace. As a result, the current fuel crisis may be a prolonged one. ⬇️
2/ According to VChK-OGPU, the recent drone attacks on Moscow's Kapotnya oil refinery have prevented the facility shipping fuel since the striked. It will take two or three months to carry out repairs, but one of the cracking columns is irreparably damaged.
3/ Similar serious damage has also been inflicted on the Yaroslavl and Ryazan refineries, with diesel production at Yaroslavl completely disabled "for a very long time". The two refineries had previously been principal suppliers of fuel to Moscow.
1/ Russia's fuel crisis has spread to its Baltic exclave of Kaliningrad. Fuel prices have soared, rationing has been introduced, gas stations have kilometre-long queues, but most have no fuel to offer. Extreme heat is also causing pumps to break down en masse. ⬇️
2/ Russians are posting videos of long queues at Kaliningrad gas stations, the vast majority of which reportedly have no fuel available. According to one reader of the ASTRA news outlet:
3/ “My parents visited 8 gas stations, and everywhere was empty. They were told that there was fuel at some station outside the city, at 100 rubles per litre, and there was a kilometre-long queue there."