Thread by @althecat

And now, finally, @NHC_Atlantic has put up a new advisory on #TSKarl #HurricaneKarl

...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS INVESTIGATING KARL...

https://twitter.com/althecat/status/1580346284824612864

Current satellite imagery shows why NHC thinks Karl will also be pushed through the Tehuantepecer wind gap for a 2nd time - its all a matter of timing. Karl is already clearly outside their cone, the railway lines show where a ridge is building as dry air pushes south.

You can see the scenario in the latest GFS model here. But bear in mind that this is based on the assumption that Karl is still a tropical storm. And as you can see it is expected to decay very rapidly over night.

These frames from the GFS3 model are at 11pm 2am 5am and 8am tomorrow. A stronger storm will not decay so quickly IMO.

And they may not full factor in the impact of the aerial supply of atmospherica water which #Karl is receiving from its sibling storm in the Pacific #99E.

Also the Tropical Storm karl is fairly obviously moving ENE at a reasonably quick pace - in the same direction as the steering winds - which minimises the intensity limitation of any remaining shear.

Here's the ECMWF 3 hour model which shows the storm decaying, albeit at a slower rate and approaching the coast after 48 hours.

It also shows it travelling consistently in a different direction than its actual direction of travel - possibly based on the official forecast.

#Karl now appears to be stationary and losing intensity a bit.