And now, finally, @NHC_Atlantic has put up a new advisory on #TSKarl #HurricaneKarl

...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS INVESTIGATING KARL...
Current satellite imagery shows why NHC thinks Karl will also be pushed through the Tehuantepecer wind gap for a 2nd time - its all a matter of timing. Karl is already clearly outside their cone, the railway lines show where a ridge is building as dry air pushes south.
You can see the scenario in the latest GFS model here. But bear in mind that this is based on the assumption that Karl is still a tropical storm. And as you can see it is expected to decay very rapidly over night.
These frames from the GFS3 model are at 11pm 2am 5am and 8am tomorrow. A stronger storm will not decay so quickly IMO.
And they may not full factor in the impact of the aerial supply of atmospherica water which #Karl is receiving from its sibling storm in the Pacific #99E.
Also the Tropical Storm karl is fairly obviously moving ENE at a reasonably quick pace - in the same direction as the steering winds - which minimises the intensity limitation of any remaining shear.
Here's the ECMWF 3 hour model which shows the storm decaying, albeit at a slower rate and approaching the coast after 48 hours.

It also shows it travelling consistently in a different direction than its actual direction of travel - possibly based on the official forecast.
#Karl now appears to be stationary and losing intensity a bit.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Alastair Thompson

Alastair Thompson Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @althecat

Oct 14
[#ExtremeWeather #ClimateChangeNow DATA ANOMALY THREAD – Central & North America]
In this thread I release five sets of data which appear to show atmospheric geo-engineering over North America at unprecedented scale, seemingly for the purpose of keeping hurricanes away. Image
During observations of #Invest91L #HurricaneJulia & #TSKarl in Central America there was an issue elephant sized mystery in the room – a tangential one, namely what is going on with the Arctic?
The constant impact of a the endless series of arctic blasts on forecasts came particularly obvious when hurricanes in both the Atlantic and Pacific were shown in a forecast moving south in model forecasts.
Read 32 tweets
Oct 13
#CentralAmerica #ExtremeWeather update thread.

Sunrise over #Karl is imminent. Its going to be another interesting day I think. Image
Image
1. Sunrise on Karl, it may be a trick of the early light but I can see a larger low level circulation that fully surrounds the 2nd larger part of Karl.

2. The second image says where we are supposed to be now in the model timeline and it certainly looks about right. ImageImage
Read 19 tweets
Oct 13
[#NotYetAHurricaneKarl update Thread, waiting for sunrise ed. #ExtremeWeather #ClimateChangeNow ]

The ridge to the north of #Karl has moved south a fair bit and appears to be pushing #Karl to the south at the eastern edge of the offical NHC Track cone.
Here's another view where you can see the leading edge of the ridge that is pushing down on the hurricane capturing it near the entrance to the Tucanpecer's northern funnel.
Lookingclose at the last four hours @NHC_Atlantic may have a point about #NotYetAHurricane #Karl not quite yet being a hurricane - as predicted by the GFS it has collapsed and broadened out close to midnight as the models said.
Read 29 tweets
Oct 12
Its now pretty clear what is going on. #HurricaneKarl #TSKarl is caught in an atmospheric river generated by #TD99E (in a similar way to how #HurricaneIan was) and headed towards florida - not Mexico.
The second overlay is a special "steering" product that allows you to see where a cyclone is headed - it focusses on the 500-850hpa wind range (1.5 to 5.5kms high winds ) which are particularly important for pushing cyclones.
And as you can see #HurricaneKarl is being steered towards northern Florida at present.
Read 6 tweets
Oct 12
This IR satelllite image [src: @TropicalTidbits] shows #TSKarl is unquestionably now #HurricaneKarl. It also shows it is not moving towards the Mexico coast line as per the current @NHC_Atlantic forecast - but moving NE. And the transformation into this was 3 hours ago.
Here are its first three hours as a hurricane.
And this is the most recent @NHC_Atlantic discussion bulletin for #TSKarl, issued 2 hours ago.
Read 13 tweets
Oct 12
These storms which are forming over Cuba and Haiti are 1200 to 2000kms away from #KARL but it is clear that the cause is #TSKarl, which still has not been designated as a hurricane even though its convection field now covers 454,000 kms.
Read 8 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(