Patrick Saner Profile picture
Oct 13 β€’ 6 tweets β€’ 3 min read
Lot's of discussions on Fintwit around SNB's use of the USD swap line with the Fed.

Here a quick thread to explain this, but without the Fintwit conspiracy theories πŸ˜‰
As @JeffSnider_AIP showed, banks in Switzerland started borrowing USD from SNB last month. SNB raises these dollars from the Fed through the USD swap lines that these two (and other) central banks have. This week roughly 6bn were borrowed, last week roughly 3bn.
What's important to recognize is that the FX market has de facto become an attractive source of funding for Swiss banks. The mechanics are tedious, but are roughly as follows:
Domestic banks raise CHF through 1-week USD repos with SNB. Banks are loaned USD and swap them for CHF at around 20bps. SNB conducts daily 1-week CHF repo auctions at 45 bps. Banks can thus earn a profit of 25bps by lending CHF via the FX market back to SNB via CHF repo auctions
For those interested, the mechanism was actually laid out by #Zoltan about 2 years ago, see here: research-doc.credit-suisse.com/docView?langua…
Hence, in my view this drawing from USD swap lines is primarily a reflection of a spread pick-up in FX markets, rather than a sign of liquidity issues in the domestic banking sector.

Happy to discuss! @jnordvig @JanssenAK @fabiocanetg

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More from @patrick_saner

Oct 12
Decaying intervention effects.

Some short thoughts on the policy interventions in JPY and Gilts.
Chart above shows the Yen and 10y Gilts before and after recent market interventions. Both JPY and 10y gilts have shown some relief after intervention (as expected), but both at are now either higher than when the intervention happened (Yen) or creeping back to the highs (Gilts)
Yen and Gilt yields inching higher is not surprising either. Interventions are temporary and the fundamental reasons driving the Yen and Gilts have not changed much. That's why I thought the BoE needs to crush Gilt vol, but that yields are not capped
Read 4 tweets
Sep 25
After the equity sell-off of the past weeks, many are asking at what equity level the "central bank put" comes back into play. S&P 500 at 3500? 3000? It's the wrong question to ask.

A thread on the central bank put in a new regime πŸ‘‡
The central bank "put" – loosely defined as financial markets' or an economy's reliance on a central bank as a lender of last resort in providing insurance against very adverse financial market and/or economic outcomes - has changed.
Conceptually, the CB put is mostly driven by the inflation trajectory, GDP momentum, financial fragilities and stress, as well as politics. The relative importance of these factors depends on the economic circumstances, but inflation is typically the most binding constraint
Read 10 tweets
Aug 30
The US housing market is very important for the economy, but currently also for inflation via the shelter and OER component. A few thoughts below πŸ‘‡
First things first and as disclaimer: I am using several charts and analysis by @GoldmanSachs which had a great report out on this topic today. Anyway, here goes:
1: Total home sales are declining quickly and have further to fall. No surprise given the abysmal home buying sentiment and higher mortgage rates.
Read 6 tweets
Aug 29
GrΓΌezi! πŸ‡¨πŸ‡­
Swiss National Bank Governor Jordan held an excellent speech at Jackson Hole. His tone was unmistakably hawkish, but there were a lot of important other points worth highlighting. A quick thread πŸ‘‡
Point 1: On monetary policy, Jordan was hawkish. He hammered the point that "ensuring price stability must be our absolute priority". Absolute - a word purposefully chosen.
Point 2: as an extension of point 1, he stressed that the monetary policy mandate should not be overburdened and should be focused on price stability exclusively. In my view an elegant potshot at the Fed and ECB. Again reiterates the determination of SNB.
Read 6 tweets
Jun 2
Financial conditions needs to tighten more to reign in inflation. Perhaps counterintuitively, though, the ongoing risk asset relief rally is actually good for the Fed. A few thoughts around what financial conditions are and the current state of play πŸ‘‡
Financial conditions indices (FCI) measure how accommodative or tight overall conditions for an economy are. They provide clues as to how adequate the monetary policy setting for an economy is. There are many providers of FCI – usually similar concepts but different methodologies Image
An often used FCI is from Goldman Sachs. It's easy to understand as its driven by some key metrics. Contrary to popular belief, equites usually carry a low weight in FCIs – the most important drivers of financing conditions are long-term yields, credit spreads, mortgage rates etc Image
Read 11 tweets

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