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Oct 13 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Video of what is claimed to be a #missile strike in Russia's #Belgorod. Unclear what was fired, and by whom.
Said to be Russian missile, but unconfirmed.
Geolocated site of impact - Ul. Gubkina, Belgorod. Image
Video from impact site. SAM booster found nearby.

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More from @Euan_MacDonald

Euan MacDonald Profile picture
Oct 15
If Ukraine can secure the dam/bridge at Nova Kakhovka, the noose around Russian forces in west-bank Kherson Oblast will be tightened to strangling point.
Read 6 tweets
Euan MacDonald Profile picture
Oct 11
Interesting: Putin's former speechwriter Abbas Gallyamov gives his insight into Putin's possible future.

"It will not end in a real coup, in a real overthrow of him. Before this happens, I think he will understand that it's in his interests to step down."
He thinks Putin's entourage, and the elite in general, will eventually confront Putin and get him agree to step down. But this won't happen until the whole Russian political system is closer to collapse, and Putin himself is more seriously wounded and weakened politically.
He believes it is highly unlikely that hawks such as Kadyrov will take over, as they have shown themselves to be losers, pursuing a hopeless strategy. They have no solution to the problem that Putin has created.
Read 7 tweets
Euan MacDonald Profile picture
Oct 10
Big bangs in Kyiv, air raid on - one close to me in western Kyiv that set off car alarms, counted three more further off. Air raids across whole country. Reports of hits in center on Twitter. Air defenses firing.
Bangs in Kyiv, exhaust trail from air defense missile.
Read 68 tweets
Euan MacDonald Profile picture
Sep 28
Good, but misses vital element: A successful uprising against a repressive state requires protesters to take and hold a physical space, a "Maidan" large enough to sustain sufficient numbers of protesters so they can defend themselves from the riot police.
meduza.io/en/feature/202…
The "Maidan" has to be defendable, have a permanent presence for defense (self-defense sotni or companies, as they were called in Ukraine), be accessible to the general public so that they can supply and sustain it, and have a space large enough for mass rallies.
Organization is also a vital element, of course, but self-organization or organic organization rather than top-down, hierarchical political-style organization. (Political leaders at Ukraine's Euro-Maidan protests often found themselves sidelined or overruled at critical points).
Read 10 tweets
Euan MacDonald Profile picture
Sep 26
Some crystal-ball gazing, which is always dangerous and prone to error, but sometimes hits the mark.

What is Putin's plan?
Why did he threaten to use nukes?
Will Ukraine get tanks?
Will there be domestic unrest in Russia?

A thread.
Putin's plan looks to be this:

Threaten (bluff) about use of nukes to intimidate West leaders into not giving Ukraine tanks, etc;

Shore up lines with mobilized mass;

Wait out winter until more troops available to better secure occupied territory, then try to freeze conflict.
The nuke bluff is aimed at Scholz and Macron, and could already be working - Ukraine needs tanks/APCs to advance quickly and scupper Putin's plans, but they're not giving them.

Reports are that current Russian draftees are being sent to the front, no training, rusty weapons.
Read 13 tweets
Euan MacDonald Profile picture
Sep 22
Russian police pick off protesters in ones or twos, and no other protesters come to their aid. If they can’t organize self-defense units like the Ukrainians did at the EuroMaidan protests, the Russian public will be unable to offer any resistance to their fascist police state.
What we’re seeing here is the corrosive effect of years of totalitarianism - there’s no social cohesion, no civil society, people have been conditioned not to have any trust in each other, indeed to actively distrust each other.
The captive nations of the Soviet Union and earlier forms of the Russian empire had ethnic, cultural and linguistic bonds that made their societies more cohesive, and thus better able to shake off totalitarianism - though some still haven’t been able to.
Read 5 tweets

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