Truss, Kwarteng & Philps continue to dig in. @bankofengland Governor is adamant in warning that the Friday deadline is fixed. Pensions are threatened. The #SecondGreatFinancialCrisis appears to be centred in London, now.
The crux of the crisis seems to be happening over the next 2 days. For credibility, the @bankofengland must stick to its deadline; but if, afterwards, pension fund(s) threaten bankruptcy, will it bail them out? Openly or by the back door?
This week maybe London’s Lehman crisis week, as events unfold. Look for major changes in policies & measures (p&m) over the course of the next few days, as a series of unpredictable (but not unprecedented) financial events threaten or are thought to threaten system stability.
It’s never good for govt to change (p&m) on the hoof, outside the constitution, unwritten or otherwise. It can be an uphill task to reverse them, as when Goldman Sachs in mid-Sept 2008, to add retail financing to its portfolio. The changes may look minor, but they are not.
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What does economic #integrality mean? The word is used in mathematics & economics. In economics, it is related to the concepts of integer & integrity, and has both an everyday & a maths meaning. It means that a resource, defined very widely to include people, is “fit for purpose”
The mathematical meaning of #integrality requires knowledge of set theory and “space-time” economics. In the set of resources, very widely defined including humans, the earth and black holes, there are good resources and bad resources.
Good resources, here and now, are a Vermeer painting, a loved hymn, Mother Earth, a view of earth from a very distant planet. Bad resources are rubbish strewn across a road, a polluted stream, a sick city.
The unwinding of @budget2020 continues. The situation demands the whole package to go, not just bits here & there. The creeping U-turn just encourages MPs & others to demand more. And it is unlikely that the markets will respond well to the uncertainty created by slow change.
Will the reversal of the Corporation Tax reduction effect growth? This question is difficult to answer because it involves comparing anticipation in 3 periods, before @budget2022, up until now, & after the reversion.
However, what stands out is the volatility of policymaking, which damages govt credibility & is likely to lower expectations for investment and lower economic growth.
The crisis is upon us. The PM & Chancellor have provoked the interlinked financial markets & the bear has woken, angry & hungry. What should the PM, with power, do? Remove the dart that wounds the beast. Calm & if necessary subdue it. Convene wise & experienced councils.
Combat climate change. But now, today: 1. Replace Kwarteng by Sunak, & cancel #budget2022. It has been an unmitigated disaster, politically & economically. 2. Reappoint a previous respected mandarin to head @hmtreasury to reassure the public & the markets.
3. Convene an open public meeting of the PM, the Chancellor, the Governor @bankofengland , the head of the @OBR_UK & the head of the @TheFCA to further reassure the markets. The turmoil must be stopped urgently before bankruptcies overtake policy. The markets take no prisoners.
I’m with @Frances_Coppola on the main question here. 1. It’s complicated and systematic. 2. Banks create money by lending, but under constraints. 3. However, the “lending” is not uniform & it is conditional. 4. Animal spirits also affect the banks, and market panic.
5. In the UK, not necessarily in other countries, most bank lending is for home mortgages. The market is churning as expected interest rates rise. 6. It seems likely in the UK, that this lending will collapse, so the increase in “money” will slow down, perhaps 🛑.
7. Meantime, the @bankofengland is intervening in the markets and issuing warnings. 8. The system is being shocked with unknown consequences. 9. We are in a global financial crisis, partly generated by #PostTruthEconomics
#PostTruthEconomics aka Trussonomics or Trumponomics is the economics being followed by #PostTruth governments that ignore economic expertise and formal forecasting & scenario analyses in favour of evidence-free policies based on ideology or populism - a thread
In the UK, the #budget2022 is a prime example: no @OBR_UK costings with scenarios based on alternative assumptions; policy changes based on wishes & hopes, rather than evidence; facile & ad hoc justifications (trickle-down economics); bluster & mis-speaking arrogance; and lies.
One feature of #PostTruthEconomics is the co-option of non-mainstream, outlier, ideological, or dead economists to provide confident justification, at least of aspects of the policies, e.g. for #budget2022 Prof Patrick Minford @JamesVa72538332
@DavidHenigUK Thank you, this is very helpful. These costs and damages are mostly immediate and short term. There are also long term economic damages from leaving the European Internal Market. 1/
@DavidHenigUK These costs primarily come from the loss of economies of specialization and scale for UK producers of goods and services due to a far smaller internal “domestic” market. /2
@DavidHenigUK The costs of serving the EU from the UK will rise through more “red tape”, higher transport costs because of border delays for checks, and diverging regulations for health and safety. /3