I am a Post Keynesian economist specialising in the theory of money & the costs of climate change mitigation. I have brought integrality into economics.
Nov 15 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
There’s a problem with the labour market term “economically inactive”. Those working at home are definitely not inactive. They are typically either caring for themselves or for other people.
In the #NationalStatistics those deemed to be “economically inactive”should be termed “Working at home” in contrast to those “ Working from home”. The change in terminology will emphasize that carers and household managers do work.
Nov 12 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
Remarkably good economics from @BBCNewsnight Ben Chu. My view is that on the revenue side, the policies should include 1) freezing personal allowances, 2) raising the 45% tax rate to 50% and reduce the level at which it is paid from £150K to £100K,
3) merging income & capital gains tax to income tax allowances and rates, 4) removing #NonDom status, 5) promising immediate action to identify beneficial ownership of UK assets, 6) setup Committees to consider the benefits of #UBI & #WealthTax ,and
Nov 12 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
#COP27 This is very important. The world is on the brink of losing the opportunity to move together to avoid the risks of dangerous climate change. Maybe it will be a surprise to some, but #NetZero by 2040 or earlier may be actually economic.
However, simultaneously, we must square the circle, and ensure that policies focus on effectiveness and importantly on equity. It can be done.
Oct 22 • 15 tweets • 5 min read
New thread on the #SecondGFC follows.
So Moody’s has downgraded the UK as a “warning sign” re the volatility of £ & UK politics. One of the rating agencies that awarded top grades to junk bonds etc in the #GFC. A 100 yrs ago Moody himself gave the UK our now lost top rating. How times change. C/f £⬇️ since then.
Oct 22 • 9 tweets • 4 min read
Let’s be clear, BJ does *not* have a mandate to govern the UK. The meme comes from the populist plot to divide & create chaos. Incredibly, we are seeing Naomi Klein’s The Shock Doctrine (2007) in action. Our global political-economic-energy system #capitalism has been corrupted.
The UK’s unwritten constitution has the PM as primus inter pares, first among equals. He/She is not elected by popular demand, but in secret ballots in orderly elections. The UK’s constitutional checks & balances are in @HouseofCommons rules & procedures that BJ likes to flout.
Oct 21 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
I predict ever more political chaos. It has become a Trump-alike entertainment show, with Boris as the star. Fortunately, the MPs vote is secret, but arm twisting is Tory stockintrade. It’s becoming more nasty, even for the nasty party.
The showman returns. From the astonishingly sudden rise, via the Boris bots & former kippers, there is a hidden populist plot to return him to the premiership. I smell Steve Bannon behind the plot & Putin behind him. MAGA comes to the UK.
Oct 21 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Good people across the country recognize both that there is a climate crisis and a cost-of-living crisis. Remember how we can together during the pandemic to support and help each other. The twin crises demand it. Love our neighbours, literally.
In Cambridge I’ve been asking shop keepers how they are managing the inflation. I’ve been overwhelmed by their concern for their customers. Everyone remembers how we came together during the pandemic and the Queen’s funeral.
Oct 20 • 16 tweets • 5 min read
Words fail. How, why, & when did our government come to this? Ask Boris Johnson if he has got what he wished for. He has played Eton games with our governance. Lack of political & economic acumen amongst Tory party leaders is astonishing. All their MPs are being held to account.
I blame #Brexit. They, Tory MPs, blame everything else that they can think of: Putin, the war, and even “remainers”! I can’t stop remembering BJ, now apparently sunning himself in the Caribbean, performing as a real politician over his period in office.
Oct 17 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
#TheScienceofMoney is the core of #SpaceTimeEconomics Money, as a social construct in evolution, is as critical & crucial as the discovery of fire. Both transformed the prospects of those who adopted them. This is social evolution.
Money lubricates transactions; it allows us to reduce risks; perceptions of enough of it can make us content; it is simultaneously beautiful, desirable, neutral, & dangerous. It is a tool, an idea, a way of ascribing responsibility, a tracking mechanism. It has multiple meanings.
Oct 14 • 14 tweets • 4 min read
What does economic #integrality mean? The word is used in mathematics & economics. In economics, it is related to the concepts of integer & integrity, and has both an everyday & a maths meaning. It means that a resource, defined very widely to include people, is “fit for purpose”
The mathematical meaning of #integrality requires knowledge of set theory and “space-time” economics. In the set of resources, very widely defined including humans, the earth and black holes, there are good resources and bad resources.
Oct 14 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
The unwinding of @budget2020 continues. The situation demands the whole package to go, not just bits here & there. The creeping U-turn just encourages MPs & others to demand more. And it is unlikely that the markets will respond well to the uncertainty created by slow change.
Will the reversal of the Corporation Tax reduction effect growth? This question is difficult to answer because it involves comparing anticipation in 3 periods, before @budget2022, up until now, & after the reversion.
Oct 14 • 13 tweets • 6 min read
The crisis is upon us. The PM & Chancellor have provoked the interlinked financial markets & the bear has woken, angry & hungry. What should the PM, with power, do? Remove the dart that wounds the beast. Calm & if necessary subdue it. Convene wise & experienced councils.
Combat climate change. But now, today: 1. Replace Kwarteng by Sunak, & cancel #budget2022. It has been an unmitigated disaster, politically & economically. 2. Reappoint a previous respected mandarin to head @hmtreasury to reassure the public & the markets.
Oct 13 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Truss, Kwarteng & Philps continue to dig in. @bankofengland Governor is adamant in warning that the Friday deadline is fixed. Pensions are threatened. The #SecondGreatFinancialCrisis appears to be centred in London, now.
The crux of the crisis seems to be happening over the next 2 days. For credibility, the @bankofengland must stick to its deadline; but if, afterwards, pension fund(s) threaten bankruptcy, will it bail them out? Openly or by the back door?
Oct 11 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
I’m with @Frances_Coppola on the main question here. 1. It’s complicated and systematic. 2. Banks create money by lending, but under constraints. 3. However, the “lending” is not uniform & it is conditional. 4. Animal spirits also affect the banks, and market panic.
5. In the UK, not necessarily in other countries, most bank lending is for home mortgages. The market is churning as expected interest rates rise. 6. It seems likely in the UK, that this lending will collapse, so the increase in “money” will slow down, perhaps 🛑.
Oct 7 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
I’ve glanced at the paper so far. It looks to be a way forward for a severely compromised global banking system. Shadow banking is a cancer on the body politic, & must be cut out or reigned in. The turmoil following @budget2022 involved unprecedented central bank intervention.
#PostTruthEconomics as practised by Trump & Truss, clearly provokes the financial sector, with @CentralBanking_ picking up the pieces. But the risks of destabilising the system are high and rising as interest rates climb. Reform is urgent.
Oct 5 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
Conference ends. Truss at a twisted podium paints #TheGrowthPlan in more, unconvincing detail. @Conservatives turned into a pale, English version of MAGA neocon extremism. First they were infiltrated by the Brexit Party, now they’ve been taken over by UK followers of a US elite.
It’s as if the UK economy were a plaything for a right-wing experiment, enacting tax cuts and deregulation, attacking the woke, politics as entertainment. They don’t need any data or economic expertise. They know it all. Disrupt and hope for the best. #PostTruthEconomics
Oct 5 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
Unbelievable cod economics being spouted by Truss and Minister Paul Scully. This is boned-up #PostTruthEconomics. Scrap economic orthodoxy, he is saying, and disrupt (what? the economy? society? the woke, whoever they are?) Ah, it’s the EU regulations to be scrapped. 😡
Minister Scully is giving the justification for #TheGrowthPlan on @BBCRadio4 World at One. Mainly spin, clearly a qualification for the job. He’s good, smooth, well-spoken as mum would say. “A different strand of Conservatism” he says. 😂Neoconservatism, I say. Smooth as treacle.
Oct 5 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
After the Greenpeace disruption. Truss’s Party Conference speech. Very good so far. She’s a person of the people. Determined to get us out of the high-tax (it’s not), low-growth (it is) cycle. Grow the pie. Growth-Growth-Growth. Change means disruption. Truss is a penny Trump.
Truss is a hopeless orator. Her voice rises in pitch at the wrong time. Pauses are misjudged. Mrs Thatcher had speech training and it greatly increased her power and charisma. I think it is too late for Liz Truss, much too late.
Sep 26 • 60 tweets • 25 min read
#PostTruthEconomics aka Trussonomics or Trumponomics is the economics being followed by #PostTruth governments that ignore economic expertise and formal forecasting & scenario analyses in favour of evidence-free policies based on ideology or populism - a thread
In the UK, the #budget2022 is a prime example: no @OBR_UK costings with scenarios based on alternative assumptions; policy changes based on wishes & hopes, rather than evidence; facile & ad hoc justifications (trickle-down economics); bluster & mis-speaking arrogance; and lies.
Feb 3, 2019 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
@DavidHenigUK Thank you, this is very helpful. These costs and damages are mostly immediate and short term. There are also long term economic damages from leaving the European Internal Market. 1/@DavidHenigUK These costs primarily come from the loss of economies of specialization and scale for UK producers of goods and services due to a far smaller internal “domestic” market. /2