Faisal Islam Profile picture
Oct 14 19 tweets 6 min read
NEW/ BREAKING

Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng is flying home early from IMF for talks on the mini Budget
The Chancellor is flying home a day early tonight, and has cancelled appointments at the IMF Annual Meetings due tomorrow.
Treasury sources tell me the Chancellor wanted to engage across Government and with MP colleagues on the mini Budget
NEW

My report outside the British embassy here in Washington DC just after the Chancellor hurriedly left for the airport rushed back from the IMF talks a day early… because he was “v v keen to talk to MPs” and ministers about the Debt plan, we were told
pictures of the Chancellor’s car leaving the embassy and the IMF meetings and a rainy DC en route to Dulles Airport and back to London last night
Only 10 hours before his sharp exit from the IMF Chancellor spoke to UK broadcasters, I got to ask him the questions- got no sense of a pitch roll for a u-turn, asked him if it was humiliating to have his Budget “filleted” by Number 10 while he was in DC, and how long he’d be Cx twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
My report on #BBCNewsTen last night that if a u-turn was being cooked up, it wasn’t being done so by the actual Chancellor of the Exchequer… in two parts… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
NEW

PM to hold press conference.

First Lord of The Treasury, is one of the PM’s titles. The Chancellor is Second Lord.
…still in Washington DC at the IMF…

Having spent a fair amount of time with the Chancellor yesterday.

Did point out that he was pretty robustly resisting suggestions of a Corporation tax u-turn and this was building up to a serious point of tension…
Whatever conversations may be happening potentially very soon, at this precise moment I’m told he is still the Chancellor of the Exchequer and heading to the Treasury, awaiting a conversation with the PM. Though it is Number 10 that has called the press conference for later…
my experience of Kwarteng is that he would not be someone to go quietly, or take one for the team, especially in a situation where he was literally enacting the signature policy of the PM.

Indeed senior financiers here in DC were of the impression he would “take her with him” 👀
In number 10 now apparently so let’s see…

Important technical note.

The Corporation tax rise (ie the Sunak policy) is already legislated for, it is the default, it would require no further votes etc
This wasnt even 24 hours ago… this is not a guy who thinks he would or should be fired for enacting the PM’s signature policy…

In case this gets deleted… the Growth Plan fact sheet on Corporation Tax

gov.uk/government/pub…
NB On Government’s own scoring, the Corporation Tax move had the biggest net exchequer cost of all the measures of the Growth plan - £67bn vs £65bn, and even on a gross basis, the C-tax measure is bigger than NI by 2026-27.

So biggest policy of the Growth Plan is set for the axe
the sell for a new Chancellor?

Come help save the country?

You might get fired via Lobby twitter after being forced to take a flight back from US, for enacting the PMs signature policy?

Does the PM’s economic team in Downing St get to stay.

Whoever takes it has some leverage.
What might be called a Gilt Trip…

(HT @emirnader 👏🏽)
Someone just pointed out that Brian Clough lasted 44 days at Leeds United, almost a week longer than the now departed Chancellor…

There’s definitely a film in it.

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More from @faisalislam

Oct 13
🚨 Breaking: NO U-turn

On behalf of all UK broadcasters spoken to Chancellor
Is there going to be a u-turn?
“Our position hasn't changed. I will come up with the medium term fiscal plan on the 31st of October as I said earlier in the week, there'll be more detail that”
Q: Markets are already responding to the idea there's going to be a U turn on corporation tax. Is that not a possibility? Can you clarify that is even a possibility that you're going to u turn on the corporation tax?

“My total focus closer is on delivering on the mini budget”
Q: But Chancellor, you have a situation where, you've come here to discuss important issues back home at number 10 there are discussions filleting the fiscal statement that you made just a few weeks ago that must be humiliating?

KK: I speak to No 10 to the PM all the time…
Read 10 tweets
Oct 13
Morning from DC at the IMF…

overnight news in UK bond markets is incredible 40 basis points fall in 30 year yield this morning, amid expectations of major U-turn. Those expectations weren’t stoked here in DC by Chancellor, but there were some other interesting developments…
here at IMF at G7 finance ministers meeting I did pick up some veiled criticism and surprise from around the table re policies in the mini budget, specifically unfunded tax cuts… “surprise” at the “doubling down” on these policies…

bbc.com/news/business-…
US Treasury Secretary Yellen was on the record here in an interview with CNBC saying: “watching UK developments closely". While she didn't want to comment directly on UK policy, she said: "I am going to try to understand what the impact of those policies and their rationale is."
Read 9 tweets
Oct 12
NEW

Morning from DC where Chancellor arrived a few hours ago…

- 20Y gilt yields (effective Govt borrowing costs) just topped 5% again 5.02 for first time since Bank of England first intervened after mini Budget…after Bailey hard line message
- shock August GDP fall
Not sure I buy the idea that there’s private reassurance the bond buying programme will prolong. Bailey not only volunteered the “you have 3 days” comments, he then when asked for reassurance by the BBC outside, reiterated it unprompted, on camera…
BUT..
What there is into next week is a Temporary Expanded Collateral Repo Facility (TECRF)… which will help banks to help those LDI funds with liquidity, which many in the market thought was the appropriate tool to deal with this anyway…
Read 18 tweets
Oct 11
NEW

Governor Bailey really meant what he said about the pension funds having to accept that the government bond purchases are over … BBC briefly caught up with him on way out of the speech, and he said there was an “important task now for the funds to ensure they are done”…
Bailey to BBC News: “We are doing everything to ensure financial stability and you have my assurance on that…” asked about the market response.. “They have got three days, this has to be done for the sake of financial stability”
surprised by the market reaction. Bank has been clear the operation was over this weekend… its a message for the funds that do have the solvency but not the liquidity to make necessary adjustments…. But it is a message with consequences for the Government too..
Read 5 tweets
Oct 11
Another Bank of England intervention, expanding for rest of week offer to purchase Government bonds, to include inflation-linked ones. This came after ongoing rise in yields in markets yesterday.

Big day ahead - we will hear from Chancellor in Commons and Governor Bailey here.
Ongoing rise in government borrowing costs means no respite in mortgage market - those typical 2 year mortgages that only hit 6% last week, are now less than a week on already at 6.43%. 5 years at 6.29%.

Were 4.2% at beginning of last month.

latest Moneyfacts data via @PeacheyK
“Here” being at the IMF in DC. We will also get a new world economic forecast here later, reflecting how much some of these pressures are affecting countries across the world… and we already had a pretty concerning forecast from the IFS & Citi
Read 10 tweets
Oct 10
NEW
Bank of England temporarily expands post mini budget gilt funding scheme in final week “to support an orderly end of its purchase scheme” meant to help avoid funding problems in LDI funds
Buy scheme will end this week.
bankofengland.co.uk/news/2022/octo…
30 year gilt yields top 4.5% for first time since aftermath of mini budget
5 year gilt also this morning at 4.5% - its post mini budget peak was 4.7%. No BoE intervention in this market - important feed into swap rates and so 5 year fixed mortgage rates. 10 Year 4.3%.
Read 11 tweets

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