So Sweden gets a new right-wing government: M-KD-L minority with far-right SD support.
The parties call their agreement the “Tidö Agreement” named after the place where they negotiated it.
I dove into the 63-page document. So here’s a thread what the four parties agreed on 🧵
🤝COOPERATION RULES
•SD gets civil servants in all departments supervising the M/KD/L-ministers’ work. Including the Prime Minister.
•All budgets and bills by the government shall be negotiated with SD. (deals between M/KD/L and S/C are basically impossible as S/C rule out SD)
🛂IMMIGRATION
•DNA-registration of residency permit seekers
•More directed search to undocumented residents for deportation
•Family reunification only after 2 years of legal residency
•Abolition of permanent asylum
•Cut of UNCHR quota-refugees from 5K to 900 per year
•Swedish proficiency requirement for citizenship
•Minimum income for family reunification & for labour migration
•Campaigns by state authorities to advocate for immigrants to remigrate voluntarily
•Restrictions on the right to get help from Swedish translators for immigrants
👮CRIME
•Police can search without suspicion in high-crime zones
•Anonymous witnessing is allowed
•Doubled penalties for criminal gang members
•Increased punishments for rape
•More street surveillance cameras
•Criminalisation of begging on the street
•More police funding
🏥HEALTHCARE
•More centralisation away from the regions. Personal care to disabled people is fully centralised.
•Minimum Swedish language proficiency for healthcare workers
•Introduction of the right to have the same family doctor permanently
•Price cap on dental care bills
📚EDUCATION
•NEW schools are not allowed to make profit
•More centralisation on education away from municipalities
•More power to school inspectors (especially on religious schools) and teachers
•More class hours shall be spent on Swedish, maths and courses on literature
💸ECONOMY
•Tax cuts for “middle incomes” and businesses
•Lower fuel tax
•Increased unemployment benefits remain
For the rest not so much concrete, probably will follow more in the upcoming budget that will be presented at the latest in November.
🌿CLIMATE/ENERGY
•€40 billion for building new nuclear reactors
•Stop on extra subventions for wind power
•Government funded energy price cap by November
•Facilitate green inventions
•Funding for more electric car charger places
•Demands on less private energy consumption
🌐FOREIGN POLICY
•International aid is cut from 1% to 0.85% of GDP
For the rest nothing basically.
MY TAKE ON THIS:
When the L-leadership switched and opened the door to working with SD, they promised their members certain red lines they would “never” compromise on.
Well, they’ve broken almost all of these red lines. Especially on migration and crime issues.
Strangely enough there’s a lot of spreading and tax cuts. M wanted to finance this by cutting in welfare, but this doesn’t happen. So how will they finance this without running huge deficits (something notorious for the Swedish right)
My eyes will be on Liberalerna. How will members react?
There are MPs inside L who campaigned to be “hawks defending the red lines against SD”. Will they rebel on these individual issues? Only two are needed for a defeat for the government.
And also considering all negotiations with anyone must be done together with SD, the little cross-bloc cooperation Swedish politics had is probably dead.
S and C still hold strictly to their wish to isolate SD. So any cooperation between S/C and M/KD/L is basically impossible.
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I think this map would be quite useful on where Swedish parties gained and lost in last month's election:
•Far-right SD's gains most in rural areas, especially in the industrial North
•Centre-left S made big inroads in urban areas, while remaining stable in the rest of Sweden
•Liberal C had its greatest losses in rural areas. Painful as the party was founded as a farmers' interests party
•Left-wing V lost most in the industrial rural North. This is noteworthy as the party became less ambitious on climate in order to attract voters in that region
•Christdem KD fails to make any inroads in rural areas, despite focusing on rural issues. The biggest loss happens painfully in Jönköping, aka Sweden's Bible Belt
•Liberal L loses in every single region except for Örebro in the middle of Sweden, their leader is from that place
34% of the Swedish population was either born abroad or has a parent who was. One of the highest rates in the West. At this point, any wish to return to a homogeneous Sweden is just coping.
People have to get used and try to live TOGETHER. Not further segregate from each other.
Reading through the right-wing government agreement, it feels like they're stuck in that coping. No measures to actually let people from different backgrounds live more next to one another. No measures to solve segregation in schools. Just proposed deportations that won't happen.
Having a migrant background myself, I can tell you that the measures right-wing populists propose won't change anything and will actually worsen things. The only way to make a multicultural society work, is if we all live multiculturally. Shared schools, shared neighbourhoods etc
Okay, so… the Dutch government’s situation is getting harder and harder:
•VVD’s parliamentary group is (behind the scenes) protesting against a new asylum law. They deem it to be too soft. Funny here is that the Migration Secretary is also from the VVD and he is reported…
to have threatened to resign if he doesn’t get enough support internally
•The govt has decided to be a bit less strict on reducing nitrogen pollution. However, the issue is: how can they pass such a law through the Senate? Especially after the Senate elections in the Spring…
If polls are right, the govt can pass laws only via PvdA/GL (which demand a stricter policies) or the populist-right (they think that they govt is doing far too much on nitrogen anyway + D66/CU won’t like this).
•The no-Senate-majority-problem also applies for the pension plans
The big question of the Danish elections on 1 November is whether the new centrist Moderates of former PM Lars Løkke will be kingmakers as he demands the end of bloc politics.
And as it looks like now in the polls (🔴Red: 86, 🟣M: 9,🔵Blue: 80) Løkke holds the balance of power🧵
Already in 2019 as leader and PM for the centre-right Venstre, Løkke announced he wanted to break with bloc politics and form a government in the centre with the Social democrats.
However, his party didn't like this at all and they ousted him as leader months after the election.
As Venstre was slowly falling into further infighting over how to position themselves, Løkke decided to quit his own party in 2021 as he saw no way for his anti-bloc-politics line to prevail.
So he founded a new party, the Moderates, with the aim of forming a centrist government
At ANY moment today Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen (A-S&D) will call a snap election for November
And even though I don't cover Denmark at @EuropeElects, I know quite a lot about Danish politics. So here's a thread where I'll tweet updates throughout the campaign.🧵🇩🇰🗳️
These elections should've actually in June next year. But due to an ultimatum from the social-liberal Radikale Venstre (B-RE) before the summer to have an election called before 6 October.
If not, Radikale will no longer support Frederiksen's current minority government.
Reason for Radikale acting like this is an inquiry into the 'Mink Scandal' that showed Frederiksen unlawfully ordered in 2020 to cull 15 million minks in fear of these spreading Covid.
Due to that Radikale thinks Frederiksen's Socdems no longer should be alone in a minority govt