🇳🇱🗳️Today, the Dutch election campaign really starts!

RTL as always organises the 1st tv debate which often triggers new polling swings

🧵Here's a thread on what to watch out for, why PVV is still leading, whether a govt is possible or are we headed for new elections next year?

Current polling situation:

-PVV remains the largest party: ~21%, tho down compared to 2023

-GL/PvdA fails to grow above 2023 result

-CDA is headed for a revival, but growth has stopped

-VVD is headed for record low

-D66 and JA21 are making gains lately

-NSC is dead: 0 seats

🇳🇱Wilders has revealed the election manifesto of his PVV called: "This is YOUR country"

He caused the govt to collapse triggering early elections for October demanding stricter migration policies + hoping to remain the Netherlands' largest party

Here's a thread on PVV's plans🧵 💸ECONOMY

-Abolish VAT on groceries

-Introduce price regulations on basic products

-Abolish profits tax for housing cooperations

-Pension age lowered to 65

-Cut number of civil servants

-Raise VAT on books, art, culture to 21%

-VAT on energy to 9% from 21%

🧵About the Danish socdems & the populist right:

1. 🇩🇰 SocDems are now at a record low: below 20%. Among the youth, the party is doing abysmal. Why? They’re in a govt with the centre-right not delivering centre-left economic policies. So migration is not that of a golden key. 2. To say that the Socdems only became “anti-migration” at the 2019 election is wrong. Already in 2015 (even 2001) the party campaigned on “strict migration policies”. And in 2019, the party won govt despite losing 1% in an election dominated by climate change and social services

🇧🇪Belgium has a new govt!

Led by De Wever; the first time a Flemish nationalist is Belgian PM

This Arizona coalition (🟡N-VA, 🔵MR, 🔴Vooruit🟠CD&V/LE) consists of Flemish nationalists, liberals, christdems, socdems

Here’s a thread about the govt🧵

https://x.com/EuropeElects/status/1886325285924253797

Elections were held on 9 June, with conflicting results in Flanders and Wallonia/Brussels:

In Flanders, centre-right Flemish nationalist N-VA surprisingly remained the largest. Far-right VB made gains, but not as big as in the polls

Socdem Vooruit and far-left PVDA also gained

A recent poll in Morocco showed that 78% want the Family Code (laws concerning marriage, inheritance, divorce, child custody) to be based on Sharia/Islamic law

Westerners might have all kinds of ideas about this

But in essence, this poll result is meaningless

Let me explain👇 Most Muslim countries, from Morocco to Malaysia, claim to base their Family Codes on Sharia. But guess what, every country in between has vastly different policies. Comparing Afghanistan to Morocco/Algeria is almost comparing polar opposites, yet both claim to be Sharia-based.

As Syrian rebel forces are getting closer to Damascus, prepare yourself for the stories from freed prisoners you'll hear when this purple circle is liberated: Saydnaya Prison

Its nickname is 'Human Slaughterhouse' as the thingd we already know are beyond horrific

Some stories🧵 8 years ago, Amnesty reported on prisoners being left without food for days, sometimes even weeks. People hare tortured and beaten for hours without break, sometimes every single day. Many die and are left to rot in crowded cells while others are alive with diseases spreading.

According to Geert Wilders, anti-semitism is part of the Moroccan DNA.

We need to remind him of the fact it’s the Netherlands whose Jewish community got decimated by 3/4 in WW2. While Morocco’s King told the Nazis/Vichy “there are no Moroccan Jews” to protect his Jewish subjects We need to remind him that most Jews who fled the prosecution in post-Reconquista Spain fled to Morocco. Even before that, Jews were living in Morocco for thousands of years together - even before Islam spread to North Africa - with the Amazighs/Berbers.

🇳🇱🧵Dutch right-wing parties have been going on for longer than I even live about Muslims not sharing “Dutch values”. Since the 90s

But which “values”?

Values of massively punishing 26K families for fraud they didn’t commit?

Values of supporting genocide committed by Israel? Values of giving billions of euros to a Tunisian dictator who uses this to hunt black migrants to the desert to die?

Values of saying that “women should wear what they want to wear” but complain 24/7 when a woman chooses to wear a hijab and verbally attack her?

🇧🇪BELGIAN LOCAL ELECTIONS TOMORROW

Belgians will go to the polls electing 581 municipal and 10 provincial councils

This follows federal & regional elections in June. Regional govt's are already formed, but the federal govt not yet

Here's a thread on 10 things to look out for👇
1⃣Who wins Antwerp?

Most eyes are on Flanders' largest city Antwerp

Leader of Flemish-nationalist centre-right N-VA Bart de Wever has been mayor for 12 years. But he faces a major challenge from left-wing PVDA's mayoral candidate Jos D'Haese who's polling closely behind...

🇯🇴Jordan is electing its 20th Parliament today/tomorrow on 10 September!

Tricky context: high unemployment, geopolitical pressure due to genocide in Gaza, widespread discontent and there's a new electoral system that should strengthen political parties

Here's a quick thread👇 ⚠️Let's start with DISCLAIMERS:

-King Abdullah II has major powers.
Directly: he can dissolve parliament, appoints the PM, ministers and mayors. He has veto power, may dismiss judges and commands the army.
Indirectly: through ties with businesses and obedient security forces

🇫🇷I see a lot of misinformation about the programme of the French left-wing NFP alliance that just finished first.

Here's an overview of their key policies:

🇺🇦Support military aid to Ukraine

🇵🇸Recognise Palestine as a sovereign state + support ICC/ICJ cases against Israel/Bibi 🇪🇺Support EU membership, push for green re-industrialisation of EU, support EU-wide taxes

💶Minimum wage €1600/month, 10% increase

🏗️Reverse Macron's cuts on social housing by investing €1.3 billion

🏥Restrictions on private healthcare providers to guarantee free healthcare

The Belgian prime minister who accidentally sang the FRENCH anthem when asked to sing the Belgian one is Yves Leterme

PM twice: from March till Dec. 2008 & from 2009 till 2011 of which 1.5 year in caretaker status!

Here’s a thread on how disastrous Leterme’s premiership was👇🧵

https://twitter.com/nassreddin2002/status/1742585904655429903

Yves Leterme, despite a French sounding name, is a Flemish politician from the Dutch-speaking christian democratic party CD&V.

CD&V was once omnipotent in Flanders with 50%+ of the vote. By 2003, it had declined to 21%. Leterme became leader tasked to reverse the downward trend.

🇳🇱TOMORROW - 22 November - the Dutch will go to the polls in early elections to elect the lower house of parliament following a govt collapse in July.

And polls show a very tight FOUR WAY race and a very difficult govt formation.

In this thread I’ll explain what’s happening🧵👇 On 7 July, the Rutte IV govt collapsed due to disagreements over asylum policies, after 18 months in office

13 year PM Rutte’s liberal conservative VVD demanded to restrict family reunifications of refugees

Social-liberal D66 and social-christian CU refused

And the govt fell

🇪🇸 Pedro Sánchez will be reelected by parliament next week as Spain’s prime minister, forming his 3rd govt

It’ll contain his own centre-left PSOE and left-wing Sumar, supported by a wide range of regional parties

Here are the policy agreements, some of which controversial
👇 🧵 Despite polls predicting a right-wing PP+VOX majority for the 23 July elections, PP+VOX failed to do so

Catalan separatists became the kingmakers, with whom the very unionist right just cannot cooperate

And this is why Sánchez is able to form govt despite his PSOE finishing 2nd

🇳🇱Pieter Omtzigt’s new party ‘New Social Contract’ (NSC) finally released its electoral programme, titled: ‘Time for recovery’

NSC (a split from CDA) is polling high with a chance to emerge as the Netherlands’ largest party in next month’s elections.

Here are the key points👇🧵 🏛️INSTITUTIONAL REFORMS

-Instate a Constitutional Court

-Regionalised proportional representation like in Denmark/Sweden

-Introduce possibility of corrective referendums

-King should also pay taxes

-Reduce number of civil servants

-Frisian will be recognised in constitution

Dit slaat echt nergens op @gertjansegers leden van GL-PvdA keuren de aanslagen van Hamas niet goed. Nooit gedaan. Zo laag dat jij je laat leiden door Telegraaf-hetze.

Waar wij het over hebben is het lot van 1 miljoen kinderen die ieder moment kunnen sterven door het bombarderen.

https://twitter.com/wnlvandaag/status/1711999115893108759

Waar wij het over hebben is het feit dat ziekenhuizen nu niet meer kunnen opereren om onschuldige vrouwen en kinderen te helpen die gewond raken. We hebben het over een hongersnood die NU ontstaat waarbij zoveel vrouwen en kinderen de dupe van worden.

🟢🔴Dutch GroenLinks-PvdA just revealed their electoral programme titled: Together for a Hopeful Future

The red-green alliance led by Timmermans have 4 priorities: increase trust in institutions, a fair green transition, fight poverty & a strong EU

Here are their key plans👇🧵 🌱CLIMATE/ENERGY

-Cut CO2-emissions by 65% in 2030, 2040 CO2-neutral

-Invest heavily in insulating homes of lower & middle incomes

-Introduce a monthly €49-ticket to use all forms of public transport outside rush hours

-Work towards local ownership of green energy production

🇪🇸TOMORROW Spain will vote in snap elections. Latest polls show a tight race, with the possibility of again new elections in Dec/Jan

But there’s also a chance the far-right enters govt for the first time since the Franco dictatorship

In this thread I explain what’s at stake 🧵 The current govt in Spain is led by PM Pedro Sánchez, from centre-left PSOE. He’s in a minority coalition with left-wing Sumar (an alliance of leftist parties) supported by various regionalist parties

This is the first coalition govt since Spain became a democracy in the 1970s

🇳🇱🧵The Dutch Rutte IV government might collapse over asylum in the next few days (tonight?)

The govt was formed in January 2022 and is only 18 months ‘old’

In this thread I’ll explain why this collapse is kinda a long time coming👇 It’s important to know that the previous govt, Rutte III, consisted of the same parties as now: VVD of Rutte, D66, CDA and CU.

However, it collapsed in January 2021 over the Child Care Benefits Scandal: 26K households were falsely accused and harshly punished for welfare fraud.

This Wednesday, the Netherlands will vote in provincial elections. And these are VERY important.

The Dutch Senate might become ungovernable.

Provinces might sabotage national policies.

And the national govt might even collapse.

In this thread, I'll try to explain it all🧵 On Wednesday, the Dutch will elect the regional parliaments of 12 provinces and 3 Caribbean islands.

This level of govt is mostly responsible for spacial planning: environment, housing, agriculture, public transport etc.

But the provincial councils also elect the new Senate!

Mark Rutte is such a great prime minister. Probably the best PM the Netherlands has ever had! Let’s list his successes:

A scandal in which 26K households were severely punished for welfare fraud they didn’t commit, many were the result of racial discrimination at the Tax Agency.

https://twitter.com/aficionado538/status/1604174934007226368

The Netherlands is at the moment facing one of the worst housing crises in the developed world after years of liberalisations. A VVD-minister (Rutte’s party) even invited foreign investors to speculate in our housing market.

However, Rutte’s party blames refugees for this crisis