Thread by @gauravsabnis

A lot of the inflated #TSLA valuation rests on their order backlogs. Which means people waiting to buy cars but production just can't keep up.

Notice how that metric has been dropping consistently since Elon went full Lex Luthor in April with the Twitter stunt & liberal bashing.

You'll see a lot of unnecessarily wordy and aggressively boring explanations for this from analysts and institutional investors and financial media and others who really need TSLA to keep going up up up for them to keep having jobs. So they try to distract from demand issues.

But those of us who aren't in this pump and pump and pump and pump game like to look at the fundamentals.

Sure, you buy tsla at 250 hoping it will go to 300.

But remember FIN101. It's all still an NPV of future profits. From actual sales. Of products. Not just stock returns.

Here's a simple Marketing fact that those with positions in #TSLA keep ignoring

- Those with the income & personal environmental interest to buy electric cars in the US are overwhelmingly Democratic voters.
- Musk has been bashing & trolling liberals since April, non-stop

Sure, this is anecdotal, but the initial stages of insights from Qualitative Research are often anecdotal. But given how much liberals like to vote with their wallets, especially in these polarized times, Musk's Twitter stunts have OBJECTIVELY alienated a huge key segment.

Eventually, this is why #TSLA board is going to have to kick Elon out somehow.

Until last year, buying a Tesla carried no negative political connotations whatsoever.

Now, buying a Tesla = supporting a dude who shits on liberals and wants Ukraine and Taiwan to surrender.

Which doesn't mean Tesla still won't sell cars.

They will.

It's a good product.

But with his continuous bizarre crusade against the biggest segment of his product, Musk jeopardizes #TSLA shareholder value every time he tweets.

And that is eventually going to impact the stock

Tesla, even after this Musk-orchestrated decline of late 2022, has 3 times the market cap of Toyota.

Even if you buy all the "oh it's all about the tech and all about the software" smoke & mirrors, the fact remains that they need to sell more cars than Toyota eventually.

How exactly are you going to sell as much product as you can, a product whose natural customer segment is liberals, if your CEO spends every feverish Twitter tantrum trying to "pwn liberals"?

Musk is betraying his Fiduciary Duty with his weird Trumpy putinish Xi-ish turn.

Do you know how difficult it is to sell more cars than Toyota?

It is the Fiduciary Duty of the #TSLA board to dissociate the company from Elon Musk, if they want to maximize shareholder value.

That's the plain & simple FIN101 fact that the stock returns chasing and narrative chasing financial media will never highlight.

Predictably, Elon's expensive Twitter army is still selling these pipe dreams of ohhh how they actually don't need to worry about sales because the "vision" is so futuristic.

Remember that Elon gets richer by pumping up his stock than he does by selling anything.

One of the biggest flaws in this modern capitalist system we have built is that company stocks are traded less on fundamentals of the NPV of their future revenue/profits and more on where the stock will be in a few days or weeks or months.

And #TSLA is the biggest example.

It's the financial markets equivalent of if you and a friend are chased by a bear, you don't need to run faster than the bear, you just need to run faster than your friend.

#TSLA was at 250 on Oct 4.

On Oct 5, Elon, desperate to change the subject from the bashing he was getting over his hot takes on Ukraine, thought he could distract people by claiming he will buy Twitter after all.

Right now 10 days later, TSLA is at 213 and falling. Fast.

The stock price of the most valuable car company in the world have fallen by almost 15% in 10 days because quite simply, Elon buying Twitter is the equivalent of taking a 44 billion short position on Tesla.

No smart money is going to fund the deal without TSLA as collateral.

Eventually the Tesla board and shareholders will have to cut Elon loose, because his bizarre stunts are hurting the shareholders every single week. And will hurt them extra hard if Twitter, NOT an upside stock, is forever tied to Tesla.

If #TSLA falls below 200, that whooshing sound you hear will be Elon coming up with another new excuse of why he won't buy Twitter.

It's already down 4% in over an hour of trading today. The dow is down less than a percent.

Almost always since Elon got into this Twitter nonsense, TSLA falls faster than the Dow, but doesn't rise as fast.

Don't be surprised if this is Elon himself dumping stock.

Falling and falling.

Just put aside the endless media pumping up of Elon as the new "stable genius".

If you really believe in his hype, why aren't you buying this stock and reversing its fall?

Because smart money knows that @elonmusk buying Twitter spells doom for Tesla.

Oh, he absolutely CAN buy @Twitter.

He'll just have to effectively short @Tesla to the tune of $44 billion to do so.

And he had a public meltdown over Bill Gates taking a $500 mn short position on Tesla.

While he is the biggest Tesla bear.

https://twitter.com/iamsufiyaan7/status/1580958661437816833?t=gj6-OvEnv8iMZ1VSU9Pivw&s=19

The plain simple fact is that Elon never really wanted to buy Twitter. He just wanted to fuck up Twitter irrevocably. But he didn't realize that it would also fuck up Tesla irrevocably. Because he is quite literally the stupidest person to become the richest man in the world.

Like seriously, has there ever been a stupider richest man in the world?

Dude spends every day nowadays alienating the very customers who buy his products.

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1580819437824839681?t=aiXsY3m_v-rpom4tPquuMw&s=19