TIL Democrats have adopted the controversial strategy of bullet voting in the Arizona state House this year: azcentral.com/story/news/pol…
Each AZ House district elects two representatives, but each person only gets one vote. So a party can greatly increase its odds of winning one seat if it nominates just one candidate (bc no vote-splitting)—but of course, you give up your shot at winning two.
That's exactly what Democrats have done in 4 of the 5 competitive Arizona House districts this year. That should easily get them to 28 seats in the 60-seat chamber. Then, if both their candidates win in the 5th seat—quite possible, as it was Biden+6—they can force a tied chamber.
But that's basically all Dems can do. By not running a 2nd candidate in the other 4 districts, they blocked their most realistic paths to a House *majority*. So it's a really bold strategy! High floor, low ceiling. Will be curious to see if it works.
If Hobbs wins #AZgov and Dems score an upset in the state Senate, they will regret not playing for a majority in the House. But if Lake wins, they could still force a tie in the House, which would break the GOP trifecta. Huge.
Correction: apparently I have misunderstood Arizona's system for years!

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Nathaniel Rakich

Nathaniel Rakich Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @baseballot

Sep 6
195 Republican candidates for Senate, House, governor, secretary of state, and attorney general fully deny the legitimacy of the 2020 election. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/republicans-tr…
An additional 61 have raised questions about the election without outright saying they think it was rigged. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/republicans-tr…
We've integrated this research with our forecast, too, so you can see how many election deniers are likely to actually win. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/republicans-tr…
Read 5 tweets
Jun 24
Abortion became illegal immediately after the Dobbs decision in three states: Kentucky, Louisiana, and South Dakota.

Several others should imminently follow suit once the ruling is "certified" by the AG or another state actor. I'll track those here.
Read 18 tweets
Apr 10
Late to this, but I don’t see the problem here? If you move from one state to another with a later primary, and meet the residency requirement of each at the time, you should be able to vote in both! npr.org/2022/04/05/109…
I get that it looks bad, but this is the system we’ve chosen, for better or worse. Each state’s primary is a separate election (even for president), and they are allowed to schedule them on different dates. Don’t like it? Change to a national primary.
Even if we accept that you shouldn’t be able to vote for president twice, what about the other races on the primary ballot? Should a NH-to-NJ transplant be barred from choosing congressional nominees just because he voted for president earlier in the year?
Read 4 tweets
Apr 9
Gotta wonder if the polls are herding here, which could produce an above-average polling error if so.
Polls of the 2nd round of the 2017 French election were pretty herd-licious too, and that produced a historically large error. fivethirtyeight.com/features/macro…
Polls of the 1st round in 2017 also showed signs of herding, but they were also very accurate. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_p…
Read 5 tweets
Jan 18
Yesterday—MLK Day—Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) proposed a congressional map for Florida that's the most biased we've seen yet. Up and analyzed on 538: projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…
This map creates 17 🔴 seats, 8 🔵 seats, and 3 🟣 seats and has an efficiency gap of R+14. It's likely not a serious proposal, as it appears to violate the VRA by eliminating a Black district in North Florida. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…
Instead, it's probably an attempt by DeSantis to say he tried to help the GOP as much as possible when/if the legislature passes a tamer map. However, it could also be an attempt to pressure the lege into passing something more aggressive. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…
Read 5 tweets
Jan 18
Over the weekend, Gov. Tom Wolf (D) proposed a congressional map for Pennsylvania. Up and analyzed on 538: projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…
This map creates 8 🔴 seats, 6 🔵 seats, and 3 🟣 seats. It tilts toward Democrats (efficiency gap D+3) but not as much as the legislature's proposals tilt toward Republicans. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…
We're approaching the endgame in Pennsylvania. A state court has said that, if Wolf/the legislature don't pass a map by Jan. 30 (which won't happen), then the courts will take over the process. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…
Read 4 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(