TIL Democrats have adopted the controversial strategy of bullet voting in the Arizona state House this year: azcentral.com/story/news/pol…
Each AZ House district elects two representatives, but each person only gets one vote. So a party can greatly increase its odds of winning one seat if it nominates just one candidate (bc no vote-splitting)—but of course, you give up your shot at winning two.
That's exactly what Democrats have done in 4 of the 5 competitive Arizona House districts this year. That should easily get them to 28 seats in the 60-seat chamber. Then, if both their candidates win in the 5th seat—quite possible, as it was Biden+6—they can force a tied chamber.
But that's basically all Dems can do. By not running a 2nd candidate in the other 4 districts, they blocked their most realistic paths to a House *majority*. So it's a really bold strategy! High floor, low ceiling. Will be curious to see if it works.
If Hobbs wins #AZgov and Dems score an upset in the state Senate, they will regret not playing for a majority in the House. But if Lake wins, they could still force a tie in the House, which would break the GOP trifecta. Huge.
Correction: apparently I have misunderstood Arizona's system for years!
195 Republican candidates for Senate, House, governor, secretary of state, and attorney general fully deny the legitimacy of the 2020 election. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/republicans-tr…
Late to this, but I don’t see the problem here? If you move from one state to another with a later primary, and meet the residency requirement of each at the time, you should be able to vote in both! npr.org/2022/04/05/109…
I get that it looks bad, but this is the system we’ve chosen, for better or worse. Each state’s primary is a separate election (even for president), and they are allowed to schedule them on different dates. Don’t like it? Change to a national primary.
Even if we accept that you shouldn’t be able to vote for president twice, what about the other races on the primary ballot? Should a NH-to-NJ transplant be barred from choosing congressional nominees just because he voted for president earlier in the year?
Polls of the 2nd round of the 2017 French election were pretty herd-licious too, and that produced a historically large error. fivethirtyeight.com/features/macro…
Yesterday—MLK Day—Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) proposed a congressional map for Florida that's the most biased we've seen yet. Up and analyzed on 538: projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…
This map creates 17 🔴 seats, 8 🔵 seats, and 3 🟣 seats and has an efficiency gap of R+14. It's likely not a serious proposal, as it appears to violate the VRA by eliminating a Black district in North Florida. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…
Instead, it's probably an attempt by DeSantis to say he tried to help the GOP as much as possible when/if the legislature passes a tamer map. However, it could also be an attempt to pressure the lege into passing something more aggressive. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…
This map creates 8 🔴 seats, 6 🔵 seats, and 3 🟣 seats. It tilts toward Democrats (efficiency gap D+3) but not as much as the legislature's proposals tilt toward Republicans. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…
We're approaching the endgame in Pennsylvania. A state court has said that, if Wolf/the legislature don't pass a map by Jan. 30 (which won't happen), then the courts will take over the process. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…