Thread by @haynesdeborah

NEW: Chancellor @Jeremy_Hunt opens up the possibility of @trussliz ditching a pledge to increase defence spending to 3% of national income by 2030. It’s unclear how @BWallaceMP would want to stay on as Defence Secretary if military funding doesn’t grow as much as promised.🧵

The new Chancellor also makes the flawed assessment that long-term defence spending can only be secured if there is economic stability. Of course that is true. But he is missing the more fundamental point: there can be no economic stability without security.
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The crippling energy price rise – as @trussliz keeps saying – is caused by Vladimir Putin using energy as a weapon, reducing the flow of Russian oil & gas to pressure Western nations to stop their crucial support to Ukraine, which has helped thwart his invasion so far.
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Had the @Conservatives - and @UKLabour before them - genuinely demonstrated their mantra that national security is their first priority then we would not have seen successive governments slash defence spending & military capability over the past 3 decades.
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Our hollowed out defences – and this is a simplification of a time that also included the disastrous Iraq & Afghan wars – have left the UK and fellow European NATO allies less able to deter the existential threats posed by authoritarian regimes like Russia’s.
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So, it makes no sense to use the economic crisis, triggered in part by Russia’s war in Ukraine, as a reason to backtrack on a vital need to rebuild the UK’s dangerously hollowed-out armed forces and ability to deter threats.
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Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping, Kim Jong-un and all other leaders who prefer authoritarian rule over the values of democratic governments – such as human rights, rule of law and other freedoms – will be laughing.
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The UK is one of the strongest voices in @NATO, urging increased defence spending among all 30 allies – it is a live debate right now, with hopes to lift a minimal expenditure target to 2.5% of GDP from 2%.
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(The fact that the UK is one of the strongest voices despite its own dire state of military capability should also be a cause of serious alarm as it shows just how even more badly many other European allies are doing)
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If the UK were then to lead by example and reduce ambitions to grow defence spending – and this is about rebuilding from a low base as opposed to new growth – it would make it far less likely other European allies will feel under pressure to reboost their budgets.
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I’m probably tweeting into a void but this is so serious and sad. @DefenceHQ has a largely terrible record of procurement and wastes billions of pounds in programmes that fail to deliver. That’s inexcusable and also needs to change.
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But ordering more efficiencies is going to make a bad situation even worse. Many good people – and lots of not so good people – have tried and failed to make MOD and the armed forces more efficient for years and years and years and years.
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The thing is, our military and security and intelligence services are too important to fail and too important not to fund adequately, especially at a time of war in Europe and the very real threat of escalation with Russia - and with China as a growing threat.
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Here is what @Jeremy_Hunt said on @SkyNews and @BBCr4today this morning, which triggered promised-defence-funding-increases-aren’t-coming alarm bells:
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On @SkyNews the new Chancellor said: “I’m going to ask all departments to find more efficiencies than they were planning to find.”
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He repeated this on @BBCr4today and was then asked specifically if a “difficult tough decision” will be taken over the defence budget, given both he and @trussliz promised to increase defence spending to 3% of GDP?
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Chancellor @Jeremy_Hunt replied: “We do need to increase defence spending, but I can’t make a promise to you here and now about the timings of that.
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“But do we need to play our part to defend freedom and democracy around the world in the face of the first major war in Europe since the Second World War? Of course we do and that is what Britain is all about.
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“But the defence department too is going to have to help find efficiencies.
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“The long term ability to fund an increase in defence spending will depend on stability in the economic situation and a healthily growing economy. Growth with stability is what every department needs if we are going to be able to increase public spending.”
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He was then asked by @Marthakearney: “So you are at least leaving open the possibility that that pledge, the pledge made by Liz Truss, may not be able to be delivered in the specified timescale?”
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[A reminder – this is what Liz Truss promised: to lift defence spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2026 from around 2% and then to 3% of GDP by 2030. The uplift equates to an extra £157 billion over eight years as expertly set out by @MChalmers_RUSI: bit.ly/3EFd2xX]
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Chancellor Jeremy Hunt replied: “I am leaving open all possibilities this morning. I wish I could give you more detail but I will be presenting to parliament in a fortnight on Monday exactly what is going to happen and the answer to all those questions.”
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