Volodymyr Dacenko Profile picture
Oct 15, 2022 17 tweets 4 min read Read on X
Comparison of Russian and Ukrainian attack schemes:
I decided to compare the offensive of Russia in the spring and the counteroffensive of Ukraine in September in order to understand the reasons for such different results 1/17 #RussiaUkraineWar #kharkivcounteroffensive Image
2/ Russia
From the very beginning of the war, Russia built its offensive operations along the main highways and key population centers. This is understandable because the Russian offensive relied primarily on heavily armored vehicles.
3/ In this war we saw tank columns trying to storm a city without any infantry, air, or artillery cover. Which is an absolutely failed strategy.
4/ This led to the fact that tank columns were ambushed. Large forces could be blocked in narrow directions, as we saw near Kyiv, where a column of equipment stretched for tens of kilometers.
theguardian.com/world/2022/mar…
5/ Since May, Russia has somewhat changed its tactics, increasingly using assault groups of light infantry (mainly mobilized in Luhansk and Donetsk). The task of which is to find a weak spot in the defense for further breakthroughs of the main forces.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mobilizat…
6/ The attacks were accompanied by massive artillery fire. In May-June, Russia apparently reached the peak of the use of its artillery. At that time, the number of shots reached 50-65 thousand shells per day, if we rely on the data of the Ukrainian military.
7/ But the concept of the Russian attack remained unchanged. Russia moves from one settlement to another, moving along the main roads.
The disadvantage of this strategy is:
1) high military losses (because the Russians carry out a lot of assaults, most of which are unsuccessful);
8/
2) high dependence on Soviet artillery, which requires intensive logistics and a large number of warehouses;
3) the slowness of the war (instead of one attack, the Russians have to repeat the same sequence with each subsequent city).
9/ All this led to the fact that in July-August Russia no longer had enough forces to continue the massive offensive. In July, the Russians called it an "operational pause", but later the "pause" turned into a retreat and flight of Russian soldiers from Kharkiv Oblast
10/ Ukraine
Ukraine has built a completely different concept of attack. Many mobile groups move not on the main roads but on forest and steppe roads. These groups "fill the space" between Russian forces, cut supply routes and create the effect of a local encirclement.
11/ After breaking through the defensive line, the second offensive line attacks the Russian positions from different directions.
This requires high coordination of actions and reliable communication in order to understand where one's own/someone else's is.
12/ Russia has very poor intelligence and coordination. After the breakthrough of the defense line, the military command often does not understand the operational situation, receives information with a significant delay, and therefore makes many wrong decisions
13/ Often, the Russian military retreats when they should rush into battle. And vice versa - they continue the fight when they should retreat.
This leads to high military losses during the retreat.
14/ Result:
Russia has a significant advantage in the number of armored vehicles and artillery, but this creates big problems for logistics. The Russian army needs a lot of fuel and ammunition.
15/ Because of this, the Russian army is "clumsy". Poor coordination, intelligence, and training of soldiers only worsen the situation.
16/ The Ukrainian army is much more mobile and organized. Ukraine has better intelligence, which allows you to accurately assess the situation on the battlefield.
17/ But the insufficient number of armored vehicles leads to the fact that a large part of the army is made up of light infantry, which is unprotected from artillery fire (especially during the offensive).

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Volodymyr Dacenko

Volodymyr Dacenko Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @Volodymyr_D_

Nov 13, 2023
Struggle for resources
When Ukrainians say that we need more weapons, the West often thinks that it is a sign of ingratitude.
In fact, Ukrainians are grateful, but there is another side - how many weapons your enemy supplies to the front.
This thread will explore this topic 1/ Image
2/ Russia
Many people look down on the Russian army after its defeats in Ukraine in the first year of the war.
But the Russian doctrine is based on the fact that Russia is able to withstand heavy defeats and incredible losses, but not to give up its political goals.
3/ Ru is still a significant power, if not in terms of the quality of weapons, but in terms of their quantity.
Since the beginning of the war, Ru has removed approximately 6,000 howitzers from its storage facilities.
Read 24 tweets
Oct 31, 2023
Russia spent $22.8 billion on missile attacks on Ukraine.
This is more than half of all US military aid to Ukraine ($43 billion).
A short thread about missile attacks this winter: 1/7 Image
2/7 Despite the sanctions, Russia has increased its missile production and can now produce about 100 missiles per month.
In October, Russia reduced the intensity of its use of missiles, apparently preparing for winter attacks on UA energy.
3/7 Air Defense Ukraine has become much more effective than a year ago. If until October 2022, Ukrainian air defenses shot down about 30% of missiles, then after the transfer of NASAMS, Iris-T, Patriot, Samp-T, Ukrainian air defenses began to intercept up to 80-90% of missiles.
Read 7 tweets
Jun 22, 2023
The beginning of the offensive is the most difficult stage of the attack.
If you do not expect to catch the enemy by surprise, then the beginning of the assault is the most challenging stage 1/8
Inspired by: @bradyafr @WarintheFuture @Inkvisiit
2/8
At the beginning of the offensive, the enemy is in the most advantageous position:
1. The army has been preparing for defense for a long time and has strong defensive positions.
2. There are still enough soldiers to hold the defense and there are also reserves.
3/8
3. Artillery is ready, there is still enough ammunition.
4. Aviation works in its airspace.
5. Any accumulation of equipment or soldiers is easily tracked.
6. Breaking through several layers of minefields will inevitably lead to the loss of equipment
Read 8 tweets
Jun 8, 2023
What happened to Kakhovska HPP
Debunking myths about self-destruction
1/15
@CITeam_en @nytimes @TheStudyofWar @washingtonpost @leonidvolkov @shashj ImageImageImageImage
1. Some believe that the dam collapsed on its own due to previous damage. Satellite images of water discharge are cited as evidence 2/15 Image
3/15 But it is enough to look at satellite images from last year (before the first blow-up of the HPP station by the Russians - 2022/10/18) to make sure that the pattern of water discharge was the same and does not indicate damage to the dam
Read 15 tweets
May 9, 2023
Before a counteroffensive, Ukraine probably has as many tanks as Russia.
Russia has also lost most of its advantage in ground military equipment.
Brief overview: 1/5 Image
2/5 Ukraine had 858 tanks at the beginning of the war (the Military Balance). In 14 months, 605+ tanks were delivered by the Allies (including about 90+ Leopard 2 and Challenger 2 tanks). Another 80 Leopard 1 will arrive in June. Also, the AFU captured at least 544 Ru tanks
3/5 Oryx estimates UA losses at 495 tanks. According to experts, Oryx data cover about 80% of total losses. Therefore, the total losses of UA may amount to 620 tanks.
Thus, the available number of tanks for a counteroffensive is 1400 or so.
Read 5 tweets
Apr 17, 2023
Comparison of the cost of destroying a target with different weapons 1/7
#RussiaUkraineWar #OSINT #javelin #UAV @sambendett @SpencerGuard @shashj @FeWoessner @RALee85 @ragnarbjartur
Target - infantry: Image
2/7 Target - armor: Image
3/7 I recently did some research on the cost of destroying different targets with different means here. Now I have detailed and clarified it.
forbes.ua/war-in-ukraine…
Read 7 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

:(