I completely understand the argument that it would be insane - contempt for the way we do democracy - for a political party to change its leader TWICE after a general election. It is why till recently I assumed Liz Truss would surely lead her party into the next…
election. But. Liz Truss has today - via her new chancellor - renounced the core of her leadership manifesto. And in the preceding few weeks, she damaged the British economy and wrecked her party’s reputation for fiscal competence. If you recall, Cameron resigned…
having been told by a slim majority of voters that he was wrong to have backed staying in the EU. By contrast opinion polls indicate that an overwhelming number of voters disapprove of Truss’s economic policies and of Truss’s leadership. You could argue that Black Wednesday…
in 1992 was as humiliating for John Major as Frightful Friday has been for Truss. And Major remained PM till thrown out by voters in 1997. But Major had actually won an election, and against the odds. Truss has no such popular mandate. She is the appointee of a…
few tens of thousand Tory members. When Johnson was struggling to stay as PM, he could and did say he had been the people’s choice - and although that did not save him, Truss can’t even resort to that argument. So the only question for Tory MPs is whether there is…
any path to redemption for them under her stewardship. Today I asked Jeremy Hunt why Truss should keep her job when she sacked Kwarteng for having lost the confidence of markets and having seen a similar confidence deficit for her, with bond prices falling…
sharply after she announced her change of fiscal course. Hunt simply replied he would be winning back that vital market confidence. But that was to dodge the question whether she could be turned from liability to asset. I am struggling to find a Tory MP with a compelling…
narrative for how she goes from zero to hero, even those who say they want her to stay. These are the market fundamentals of Tory politics. And most Tories would argue that trying to buck the market for more than a few days is the shortest route to debtors’ prison
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Here is one way of seeing the price of the mini-budget’s incompetence. 1/20 🧵
The interest rate set by the Bank of England may now peak at 5% rather than 6% - IF all goes to plan with Jeremy Hunt’s unwinding of that mini-budget’s tax cuts today and imposition of public spending reductions in two weeks. 2/20
That means the interest rate paid by all of us - on mortgages, on personal and business loans - would have been a full one percentage point higher than it needed to be without Hunt’s humiliating evasive action. 3/20
I have taken soundings of many Tory MPs, and of those whose business is to know the minds of Tory MPs. All think Liz Truss will have to resign, that she has failed so comprehensively in these opening weeks that there is no route to redemption. 1/6
Their conversations are largely about how long till she goes, how long the process to find a successor would need to be and who that successor should be. 2/6
They say there are two or possibly three credible candidates: Sunak, Mordaunt and (if he wants it) Wallace. 3/6
When Jeremy Hunt received a message early yesterday morning from a “Liz Truss” wanting to talk to him, he assumed he was being pranked. He later found out it was indeed the prime minister and she wanted to make him Chancellor. He has totally reset…
her economic policy this morning, so maybe the prank is on her. I have just interviewed him, and what he told me is that in what he now says will in effect be a “full budget” on 31 October, he will announce public spending plans that are lower than those previously announced…
(otherwise known as spending cuts), plus tax rises and some taxes not falling as fast as hoped (that promised 1p reduction in the basic rate of tax is at risk). There will be a panoply of painful consolidating measures to eliminate a…
One of the odd things about the libertarian right that has seized control of the Conservative party is that they believe in capitalism and markets only up to the point where markets give them an answer they don’t like. Thus the only serious argument Truss and Kwarteng had for…
abolishing the top rate of tax and not putting up corporation tax (as Sunak had planned) was to make the UK a more attractive place for investment. But then global investors looked at the unfunded tax-cutting stimulus in conditions of high and rising inflation,…
decided T and K were reckless, and dumped sterling assets. In the process the cost of capital in the UK rose disproportionately. So, far from making the UK a better place to invest, they made it a much riskier place. They achieved the precise opposite of what they…
A couple of important things. First I am as confident as I can be that early next week Truss and Kwarteng will cancel their promise NOT to increase corporation tax by 6 percentage points to raise £18bn, in one of the most humiliating ever tax u-turns 1/10
Second, I am equally confident that the Bank of England’s £65bn rescue package for overly indebted pension funds will roll off tomorrow without causing bond prices to fall off a cliff edge. 2/10
Here’s why. 1) Today’s astonishing rise in government bond prices and fall in bond yields (at the 30 year maturity, the yield fell by 0.5%, or 50 basis points, in 24 hours) has been almost all due to rumours of the gigantic tax u-turn. Investors have priced in the u-turn. 3/10
On #peston tonight, @Jacob_Rees_Mogg says that if @OBR_UK does not - in Kwarteng's medium term fiscal plan on 31 Oct - show government debt falling after 5 years, other forecasters are available. Mogg: "Its [the OBR's] record of forecasting is not enormously good. So...
"the job of Chancellors is to make decisions in the round rather than to assume that there is any individual forecaster who will hit the nail on the head…There are other sources of information. The OBR is not the only organisation that is able to give forecasts.” Investors...
who've been dumping UK government bonds and driving up interest rates, and who've been looking for the government to make a credible commitment to stop the inexorable rise in the national debt before buying those bonds again, are unlikely to be reassured. Bumpy road ahead. For...