'At home and on the battlefield, seven self-inflicted traps are snaring Putin'
My latest for @thetimes . As it's behind the paywall, a quick summary of the 'traps' 1/
thetimes.co.uk/article/at-hom…
My latest for @thetimes . As it's behind the paywall, a quick summary of the 'traps' 1/
thetimes.co.uk/article/at-hom…
1: Battlefield
There's v little scope for Putin to win back momentum, even with the mobilised reservists. The missiles strikes on cities may assuage the hawks but has no strategic value. Indeed, burns through dwindling stocks that will be needed later. 2/
There's v little scope for Putin to win back momentum, even with the mobilised reservists. The missiles strikes on cities may assuage the hawks but has no strategic value. Indeed, burns through dwindling stocks that will be needed later. 2/
2: Political
Putin used to be able to play hawks and technocrats against each other. Now, he is having to swing between them, pleasing neither. 3/
Putin used to be able to play hawks and technocrats against each other. Now, he is having to swing between them, pleasing neither. 3/
3: Social Contract
Putin established implicit social contracts over war with both masses ('we'll be at war but it won't really affect most of you') and elites. Now he's having to break both 4/
Putin established implicit social contracts over war with both masses ('we'll be at war but it won't really affect most of you') and elites. Now he's having to break both 4/
4: Disengagement
So elites increasingly regard centre as a threat/problem and focus on own interests. Striking parallels to what happened in USSR with Afghan War. SledKom reporting increased embezzlement for eg 5/
So elites increasingly regard centre as a threat/problem and focus on own interests. Striking parallels to what happened in USSR with Afghan War. SledKom reporting increased embezzlement for eg 5/
5: Leverage
But centre needs regions, to keep masses in line, raise volunteer bns, rebuild conquered cities. Gives some leverage for own ends - tragedy is those out for own interests get more hearing from Kremlin than those trying to defend those of their regions 6/
But centre needs regions, to keep masses in line, raise volunteer bns, rebuild conquered cities. Gives some leverage for own ends - tragedy is those out for own interests get more hearing from Kremlin than those trying to defend those of their regions 6/
6: Gangsterism
So increased signs of lateral competition, including these mysterious deaths, which are more likely business rivalries than anything to do with Kremlin. People hunkering down or getting aggressive, further degrading system effectiveness. 7/
So increased signs of lateral competition, including these mysterious deaths, which are more likely business rivalries than anything to do with Kremlin. People hunkering down or getting aggressive, further degrading system effectiveness. 7/
7: Systemic
Hard to tackle any of the above, especially as they connect and reinforce each other. Together, making system harder to manage but above all less effective. 8/
Hard to tackle any of the above, especially as they connect and reinforce each other. Together, making system harder to manage but above all less effective. 8/
Polit system deliberately unstable, gave Putin scope to retain control through divide and rule. Doesn't work well when boss distracted or weakened. And he is, both. 9/END
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