1/ Why did two Tajiks apparently shoot at least 27 newly mobilised Russian troops at the Soloti training centre in Belgorod region, causing at least 11 deaths? Much is still unclear about the incident, but I'll make some testable predictions.
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1581377709233831936
2/ I predict that in the next few days we'll learn:
🔺 The Tajiks were recruited within the last 2 weeks (possibly sooner)
🔺 They were mobilised from a big city like Moscow or St Petersburg
🔺 They were previously in low-income manual jobs
🔺 They were detained from a hostel
🔺 The Tajiks were recruited within the last 2 weeks (possibly sooner)
🔺 They were mobilised from a big city like Moscow or St Petersburg
🔺 They were previously in low-income manual jobs
🔺 They were detained from a hostel
3/ Here's why I think this may be the case.
The Russian authorities have been increasingly indiscriminate in recruiting men in the big cities, including Moscow and St Petersburg. I posted only a few days ago that hostels were being raided.
The Russian authorities have been increasingly indiscriminate in recruiting men in the big cities, including Moscow and St Petersburg. I posted only a few days ago that hostels were being raided.
https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1580102926026297344
4/ Construction workers seem to have been targeted particularly intensively:
https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1580642418986475520
6/ In what may have been the largest raid of its kind so far, the Washington Post reports that last Thursday the police detained 200 men in a Moscow construction company's dormitories. They also took dozens from a homeless shelter.
washingtonpost.com/world/2022/10/…
washingtonpost.com/world/2022/10/…
7/ Hundreds of thousands of people have traveled from Central Asia to Moscow and other major cities to work as street sweepers, cleaners, construction workers and other low-paid jobs. It's likely that many residents of the raided hostels were Central Asians.
8/ Many thousands of Central Asians become Russian citizens annually – 145,000 in 2020 alone. Tajiks make up the largest number. But Russia likely regards dual citizens as fair game for mobilisation.
novastan.org/en/tajikistan/…
novastan.org/en/tajikistan/…
9/ In 2013, Russia amended the federal law regulating military service. It now requires foreigners who have obtained Russian passports to undertake military service, even if they had already served in their home countries' militaries.
10/ Russia has sought to encourage immigrants to sign up to the military by offering them a fast track to Russian citizenship. The Russian authorities reportedly plan to strip naturalisation from immigrants – and their entire families – if they refuse military service.
11/ This leaves many immigrants in a difficult position, especially when their native countries criminalise fighting abroad (an anti-jihadist measure). Tajikistan imposes prison terms of up to 20 years on citizens taking part in hostilities on the territory of other states.
12/ There have also been reports of trickery and violence being used to get Central Asian immigrants to sign Russian military contracts.
13/ For instance, according to one advocacy organisation, migrants are given "bundles of up to 40 pieces of paper when filling out work permit forms and urged to sign everything quickly without properly studying the contents."
14/ Buried among the paperwork is "a two-page contract for voluntary military service, written in very small print. And people won’t even know about it, because they don’t even get a copy of it to keep.”
15/ In one instance, a Kyrgyz courier was stopped by the police, who demanded to see his documents and forced him onto a police bus. "On the bus, they beat him, used a stun gun on him and demanded he sign something."
16/ "Only afterward did he realize that what he had signed was a contract for voluntary military service."
eurasianet.org/central-asians…
eurasianet.org/central-asians…
17/ Such abuses aren't surprising. Racism is rife against Central Asians in Russia. They are treated very badly, facing discrimination, stigmatisation, bullying, harassment and hate crimes. They are often socially and economically ostracised.
isdglobal.org/wp-content/upl…
isdglobal.org/wp-content/upl…
18/ This makes it particularly interesting that early reports claim the shooting was sparked by a religious dispute. The fact that they targeted their fellow mobiks is likely also significant. Was this a case of two forcibly conscripted men getting revenge on tormentors?
19/ If so, I'd expect the Russians to be a lot more wary in future of forcibly mobilising non-Russians. However short they may be of manpower, having their own mobiks literally shoot them in the back is surely worse. /end
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