Weekend update, A relatively stable week on the ground in terms of map changes, so thought it would be worth reflecting on the ongoing air-war as it actually took a great deal of effort on all sides and can be overlooked.
The air war in Ukraine has ended up being far more complex and layered than expected. Going into the war, Russian supposed strength in fixed wing, missile, and UAV technology was considered a major reason the Russian armed forces should be able to conquer quickly.
However here we are almost 8 months in, and the defining reality of the air war is that the Russians have never been able to establish air dominance. The Pentagon spokesperson dwelt on that in the briefing this week. defense.gov/News/Transcrip… 
The inability of Russians to control the air space over the battle, though it doesnt get the coverage, has allowed the Ukrainians to fight back as they have, its the cornerstone of Ukrainian resistance. @edwardstrngr and I wrote about that in early May theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…
The air war now is remains highly contested. The past week has seen the focus on Russian bombardment of Ukrainian cities and infrastructure mostly by missiles and UAVs. Certainly when it comes to precision guided missiles, stocks are beginning to thin acc to Ukr estimates
Ive written about how this campaign is probably counterproductive for Russia, very expensive, makes the Ukrainians more determined and will actually lead to more support for Ukraine (particulary in anti-air) than before.
The Pentagon Official had one of their longest comments on this during the briefing this week. Clearly these attacks are leading to a push to protect Ukrainian cities.
The good news for Ukr is that this their capacity to shoot down missiles, which is already strong, will only grow. The claims are that already Ukr is shooting down about half. That percentage could climb significantly with better and more layered systems.
https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1579528820050513923?s=20&t=gdyhvtoc-t4coKDuJ5aJcw
If the Russians cant seriously degrade Ukr infrastructure and logistics soon with what they have left, that avenue of attack could dwindle. Plus its unlikely that they have the ability to produce a large number of new advanced equipment of this type.
https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1581518952777150464?s=20&t=gdyhvtoc-t4coKDuJ5aJcw
With better air defense over cities and behind the lines, the air war over the land battles could once again be the focus. This air war has been hotly contested for months. Basically it seems a very dangerous environment for both sides to fly, fixed wing and helicopters.
The real focus going forward looks increasingly to be UAVs, aided/attacked by EW, to monitor and attack forces on both sides. Russia is trying to get more systems (drones and missiles) from Iran and this could step up their capabilities. washingtonpost.com/national-secur…
Pentagon believes that these Iranian supplies are important to Russia continuing the air war.
So the air war seems to be moving more and more to an unmannde war over the battlefield. If either side can gain some kind of air superiority, that could make a major difference, but for now it still seems highly contested.
and this helps explain the land war. We seem to be in another regroup and reassess phase after the frantic changes of the previous six weeks. Ukrainians are still trying to make the Russians think they are going to attack soon in Kherson
https://twitter.com/saintjavelin/status/1581015439940890624?s=20&t=gdyhvtoc-t4coKDuJ5aJcw
At the same time, they are continuing to try and advance towards Svatove in the east.
https://twitter.com/CedricMas/status/1581589544180518912?s=20&t=gdyhvtoc-t4coKDuJ5aJcw
Considering the way that they fight, the Ukrainians could end up pushing in either place, or somewhere completely new if they feel the Russians have left a vulnerable point. The key to all of this, remains keeping the Russians from having air supremacy.
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