First, let me express nothing but support for young people engaging in political advocacy & trying to make the world a better place
My advice to young people about advocacy is the same as it is to scientists ... know what you are doing and why
So let's take a look at their WHY
JSO says
"Humanity is on the verge of an abyss, accelerated human induced climate change will destroy human civilisation unless emergency action is taken to rapidly reduce our Greenhouse Gas Emissions (GHG) to zero in a very short timescale" juststopoil.org/wp-content/upl…
It's understandable that if a group truly holds millenarian beliefs they are going to act out in radical ways
They literally believe that "Further expansion of oil and gas production globally is putting us on course for human extinction"
It's a sad statement of what we experts have done to young people
It is chock full of hyperbole from authoritative figures, references to work of the "planetary boundaries" folks & RCP8.5 studies
The below from their preamble
What literature do they cite to support their millenarian, apocalyptic views?
They cite a lot from the commentaries on "planetary boundaries"
We responded to last week to these folks pushing back against their calls for even more apocalyptic focus in research
Of course, the "tipping points" commentary cited by JSO earned an all-time correction for misleading its readers about risk
And most of their references to the scientific literature to justify their doomed outlook lead to - what else - RCP8.5 studies
The JSO manifest dismisses the IPCC report based on a Washington Post article that quotes a number of scientists dissatisfied with the IPCC and then asks, ironically enough: "What danger is there in being overly alarmist on the subject?" washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/…
So good job everyone
Efforts to undermine the IPCC, climate science & elevate the prospects of a near-term apocalypse have borne fruit, at least w/ this group
Climate change is real, serious & vigorous policy action makes sense
"At the time, No. 10’s strategy was to create the impression that lockdown was a scientifically created policy which only crackpots dared question." spectator.co.uk/article/the-lo…
Sunak: "There was a failure to raise difficult questions about where all this might lead – and a tendency to use fear messaging to stifle debate, instead of encouraging discussion." spectator.co.uk/article/the-lo…
"A cost-benefit calculation – a basic requirement for pretty much every public health intervention – was never made. ‘I wasn’t allowed to talk about the trade-off,’ says Sunak." spectator.co.uk/article/the-lo…
Quick 🧵 on what IPCC says about precip and floods in Pakistan
The only mention that the IPCC AR6 Ch.12 makes about Pakistan and monsoon precipitation is to suggest a possible decrease ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1…
On river flooding IPCC AR6 Ch.12 says that it does not have confidence in projecting whether river floods will increase or decrease in the region of Pakistan (highlighted in IPCC figure/table below by me) ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1…
The IPCC provides exceedingly little (perhaps no) basis for either the detection or attribution of flooding in Pakistan to GHG forcing
🧵
One of the confusing things about extreme event return periods is that they change, sometimes dramatically, when an extreme event occurs
That's because return periods beyond the period of record are based on a curve fit to observed data based on statistical assumptions
Here is a nice figure from the @ObservatoryHK showing how just a single rainfall event turns a 100mm rainfall in one our from a 1 in 50 year event to a one in 34 year event
Accord to NOAA Atlas 14 we can be 90% confident that prior to the event, it was somewhere between a 25-yr and 1000+ yr event hdsc.nws.noaa.gov/hdsc/pfds/pfds…
I don't think you an point any area of knowledge where consensus assessments, peer-reviewed literature & official data are so systematically ignored as extreme weather
A decade ago Steve Rayner (RIP) wrote about the "social construction of ignorance" - about the steps we collectively take to blot out or ignore knowledge that is dissonant or uncomfortable
I am among the most published & cited experts on extreme weather yet . . .
Perhaps due to that I have been attacked by the White House, investigated by Congress, target of a billionaire's smear campaign & comprehensively ignored by the climate media rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/the-hounding…
Many people really like the idea of the apocalypse, especially an end-of-times resulting from our own actions that can only be avoided through some repentance
I welcome pointers to literature on this seemingly basic human instinct
Lambelet 2021
"Amid the cascade of environmental crises we are living through, apocalyptic practices of renunciation of the world offer a guide and discipline for living in the end" doi.org/10.1177%2F0953…