Russian sources are likely lying about recent territorial gains near Bakhmut in Donetsk Oblast.
Ukraine’s Eastern Group of Forces spox made an interesting comment about Russian claims around Bakhmut: He said the Russians are conducting an organized disinformation campaign...
about the capture of settlements near Bakhmut, in particular, Ivanhrad, Opytne, and others settlements.
This statement tracks with all available visual evidence that we’ve seen from open sources.
The Russian claims around Bakhmut have always been out there and unsupported by evidence. It's interesting to now see a Ukrainian official call it a deliberate information campaign.
The false claims points to a Russian effort to create an information effect and convince the Russian homefront Russian forces are making some progress to prevent more demoralization.
The theme of Belarusian military threats to Ukraine is making its way into the discourse again.
Our @TheStudyofWar report from yesterday assesses Belarusian forces likely won't conduct a ground attack against Ukraine, nor will Russian forces likely attack from Belarus.
Thread.
Russian and Belarusian forces remain unlikely to attack Ukraine from the north despite Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko's October 10 announcement that Belarus and Russia agreed to deploy the Union State’s Regional Grouping of Forces (RGV) —a strategic formation...
of Russian and Belarusian units tasked with defending the Union State. Lukashenko stated that he and Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed on October 7 on an unspecified “deployment” of the Russian-Belarusian RGV in “connection with the escalation on the western borders...
We expanded Ukrainian counteroffensives around Lyman, Donetsk Oblast, given multiple Russian reports and geolocated imagery indicating Ukrainian advances around Lyman.
1. We expanded Ukrainian counteroffensives to Yampil and Drobysheve, Donetsk Oblast, given geolocated footage showing Ukrainian forces in both settlements. Donetsk People’s Republic leader Denis Pushilin reported on September 30 that Yampil and Drobysheve are “not fully” ...
1. We expanded Ukrainian counteroffensives to Petropavlivka in Kharkiv Oblast given the Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled a Russian attack in the direction of Petropavlivka on September 24. Geolocated combat footage posted on September 23 shows...
Ukrainian forces destroying a Russian tank east of Petropavlivka, supporting this assessment.
1. We recessed the Russian control line from the Oskil River closer to Borova, Kharkiv Oblast, and recoded the remaining area as Ukrainian counteroffensives based on Russian claims that Ukrainian forces crossed the Oskil river near Borova on September 13.
We recoded the entirety of the all of Russian assessed advances and control of terrain north and west of the Oskil River as Ukrainian counteroffensives on September 11. Ukrainian forces are likely still clearing northern Kharkiv Oblast but Russian forces have largely withdrawn.
The Russian Ministry of Defense’s daily briefing map confirmed on September 11 that Russian forces are withdrawing from settlements around Kharkiv City, in northern Kharkiv Oblast, and settlements on the western bank of the Oskil River.
For context, this is the terrain the Russians trying to escape from Izyum have to deal with.
It's nasty. It's wetlands and forests with few roads.
Forces in Izyum need to cross the Oskil River while getting shot at.
Forces south of Izyum City near Kamianka and Mala Komyshuvakha need to cross the Seversky Donetsk River AND the Oskil Eiver while defending the whole group's southern flank from Ukrainian forces advancing in the Dibrove - Sulyhivka - Dovhenke direction.
There are two (2) roads that lead in and out of the pocket.