We keep hearing from self-described Putin experts that Putin will never back down, will never surrender, will only double down. What is the historical record to support this hypothesis? 1/ THREAD.
After warnings, he backed off from marching to Tbilisi in 2008. He could have. He backed down. 2/
In 2014, he abandoned his plan to take all of Novorossyia in Ukraine after facing fierce Ukrainian resistance. 3/
When Erdogan shot his plane down in 2015, did Putin retaliate? Did he attack Turkey? No. Just the opposite. 4/
There is even some circumstantial evidence that the Chechens have pushed Putin around internally (re, Nemtsov assassination). 5/
Im making no predictions about future behavior. I’m actually quite nervous about future Putin moves. I am just questioning the evidence supporting the “rat in the corner” theory. I’d like to see more data supporting that theory. 6/
To be clear, Putin has at times pursued very risky policies— intervening in US presidential elections in 2016, annexing Crimea in 2014, intervening in Syria in 2015. But those actions were far short of using a nuclear weapon. 7/ END
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