Maybe the collapse of Truss's voodoo budget is even more important than people realise?
"But it is huge!", you cry, "biggest story since the fall of Boris!"
Yup - I think it may be bigger than that. Way bigger.
Here is what I am thinking...
1/
The Brexit train had many passengers; Boris to further his career, Putin to weaken EU, UK and West; Odey & hedgies for plunder; racists, xenophobes and arsenists for obvious reasons.
But driving the Brexit train was the IEA and its political wing, the ERG.
2/
What was their destination?
Their destination was a Libertarian utopia; a Britain of small government, low tax, zero regulation, trickledown economics, Singapore on Thames, and above it all a cognitive elite of "sovereign individuals", like gods in Leer jets.
3/
It was a 50 year journey for the IEA. They had to infiltrate the Tory party and drive out the Ted Heath corporatists and the one nation MP's and gentleman farmers. They had to invade the BBC and corrupt it from within.
4/
Likewise, they had to colonize the MSM - previously respectable newspapers, like the Telegraph, were turned into comics - and use them to whip up populism and violence.
They had to attack and weaken every UK institution; judges, civil service, BBC, the Queen, regulators.
5/
Businesses were threatened and intimidated into silence, broadcasters were gagged, truth suppressed, lies sprayed around like a loose fire hose. International reputation trashed. Post war rules-based order abandoned. Peace in NI threatened. Scottish union tattered.
6/
The IEA/ERG unleashed this whirlwind of destruction, tended and fanned this bin fire of national self harm for decades, destroyed PM after PM just to get to the destination they arrived at 38 days ago: their very own people in No.10 and No.11 Downing Street.
7/
At last Britannia could be unchained; massive tax cuts to the rich, vast transfers of wealth to Shell, BP etc, a bonfire of the regulations, charter cities!
This was the prize the IEA had worked for! The end that justified the means.
And then it turned to sh1t in 5 minutes.
8/
Because it was always utter nonsense. Trickledown doesn't work. Sovereignty in an interconnected world is a mirage.
And the cold-eyed financial markets could see in 10 seconds flat what had been invisible to all the IEA/ERG fantasists for 50 years.
9/
And even the morons in the ERG must realise they have blown it now. They will never, ever, get this chance again. The Tory party will be slaughtered at the next GE and, anyway, we have seen how the markets react to "Reagonomics without the world's reserve currency"
10/
As they stand here, on the scorched earth of 2020's Britain - among the devastation THEY wrought - the ERG have just seen the reason for it all vanish before their eyes, Napoleon gazing upon Moscow in flames.
I hear that IEA jihadi Truss is depressed. I'm not surprised.
11/11
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In 2016, the brexit referendum was a petri dish for the US General Election. The same people - Cambridge Analytica, Thiel, Bannon , the Mercers & Putin - ran the same plays and won both times.
What if the UK riots are a dry run for the US election?
The UK riots show that if enough fuel has been poured, a small spark can start a big fire.
In the UK politicians like Farage, Cameron, May, Braverman and Patel and newspapers like the Telegraph, Mail, Express and Sun, for years splashed the petrol of anti-immigrant hatred.
2/
Eventually it took one tweeted lie - that the murderer of 3 little girls was a Muslim , "illegal" immigrant ,and a recent small boats arrival - to set the spark.
A small ecosystem of bought-and-paid-for RW influencers quickly fanned the flames, and the rest is history.
3/
Brexit has a new trilemma, even worse than "Leave the SM & CU AND No NI/IE border AND no NI/GB border".
Now it is "Growth AND low immigration AND stay out of the SM &CU"
If Brexit just makes us poorer, parliament after parliament, decade after decade, it cannot stand.
1/
It may take some time; the English have an unmatched ability to keep going long after everyone - including themselves - can see it's not working. (Watching a retired bank manager taking on a space smaller than his car can be hours of fun - or piano vs. staircase half-landing.)
2/
But eventually people will have enough of getting poorer and the prospect of getting ever-poorer, when there is an alternative just there for the taking.
The trilemma faced by Brexiters like Bill Cash, ranting about immigrants, is their red lines on immigration & SM/CU are
3/
I have seen various estimates of how much extra peak demand would be added to the UK grid if all 23 M gas-fired Domestic Boilers were swapped for ASHP's overnight.
The average UK dwelling is 90m2 and typically has radiators sized on rule of thumb at 100W/m2...
1/
So... in theory, if all the Heat Pumps were working at 82 deg flow/ 71 deg C Return, and all the radiators in the UK were simultaneously putting out 9 KW per dwelling, that comes to 207GW of heat. Which on a very cold day would require 100GW of Electricity. (Shock horror!)
2/
But that is nonsense. In reality, most ASHPs operate at 55 Flow / 50 Return and at those water temperatures radiators that emit 9kW at 82/71 will emit about 4kW.
So... what if we keep the old boilers instead of replacing them and just retrofit an ASHP in series?
3/
A couple of days back I tweeted how the Government now permits employers to pay migrant workers in shortage occupations 20% less than the going rate.
(Which Article 45 of TFEU would have prevented, before Brexit)
How did they cover it?
Badly. Anyone reading it would think it just applies to builders, carpenters and fishing industry - people not like "us" (managers, engineers, scientists, actuaries, vets etc)
Anyone using the BBC for information would think it just affects some horny-handed types on building sites and - who knows - maybe bring back the good old days of Polish plumbers who could re-do your ensuite at 1 weeks notice.
Either the Tories have not thought through the implications of the post-brexit immigration rules... or they have thought them through all too well.
I have a nasty inkling of what they might be up to, but it takes a bit of explaining.
Let's start with "before brexit"...
1/
Article 45 TFEU is a fundamental right of workers which entails the abolition of any discrimination based on nationality as regards remuneration. Plain-speak: an employer could not underpay an immigrant from Italy, say, just on the basis that they were not from the UK.
2/
Prior to brexit the majority of migrant workers were from EEA countries and this rule protected them.
It was not legal for a UK employer to bring in "cheap foreign workers" to undercut UK staff, and as result immigration from the EU was heavily skewed toward the jobs...
3/
Here we have Electricity and Gas prices in Euro per 100kWh, in February 2023, throughout Europe.
Where it gets REALLY interesting is when you compare the ***ratio*** of Electricity price to Gas price: See next tweet.
1/
The UK has by far the highest ratio of Electricity price to Gas price.
This is a result of Tory Government policies: 1. Gas for electricity incurs a Carbon Tax, whereas gas for boilers does not. 2. The price of ALL electricity is set by the price of Gas-fired electricity.
2/
.... which, of course, includes the Carbon Tax!
3. The government loads "policy" costs - such as the warm homes discount for poorer households - disproportionately onto electricity bills; £140 uplift for electricity vs £34 for gas.