Holger Roonemaa Profile picture
Oct 17 8 tweets 2 min read
Here's sth really exclusive. We interviewed counter-intelligence chiefs in all 3 Baltic countries to understand how the services interpret(ed) Russia already long before the war.
ekspress.delfi.ee/artikkel/12008…
„Chaos is a trait of Russian culture. There always needs to be a shepherd; otherwise, it’s anarchy,“ says Aleksander Toots who has led Estonian KAPO's efforts to catch dozens of Russian spies.
„Our assessments of Russia haven’t changed in the last 30 years,“ says Latvia's Normunds Mežviets. The chief analysis is this: Russia wishes to regain its status as an empire by any means.

„To them, there are no states, only zones and territories.“
„They come off as children who have been wronged and are now seeking revenge,“ Lithuania's Darius Jauniškis adds.
He claims the Soviet way of thinking is so deeply embedded in Russian society that even their manner of resistance still dates to the 1970s: people sit in kitchen, drink vodka, and complain, but as they leave their apartments, they report to their jobs and work obediently.
It's no secret that the Baltic agencies have for years been the ones warning of what Russia's really up to. For a long time these warnings went to closed ears in Western Europe.
Excerpt from the story:

"They’re [in the West] certainly more naïve and optimistic than we are,“ says one Baltic counterintelligence officer.

„When we tried explaining to our partners that Russia can’t be trusted, they denied it,“ another adds, visibly resentful."
It's a long read and I suggest to take some time for it. You can agree or disagree but this is a deepdive into how the Baltic countries' counterintelligence reads Russia. Here's the link one more time.

ekspress.delfi.ee/artikkel/12008…

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Holger Roonemaa

Holger Roonemaa Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @holger_r

May 4
Eilne uudis, et Eesti on maailma ajakirjandusvabaduse tabelis 4. kohal, ei peegelda tegelikkust ja loob petliku turvatunde. Näen mitut trendi, mis on meile ohtlikud. 🧵⬇️
Esiteks: järjest sagenev kohtuskäimine, kus hagetakse väljaande kõrval ajakirjanikke isiklikult. Näiteks Pandora Paberite ajal kulutasime ähvarduste, nõuete ja hagide peale mitu nädalat. See on aeg, mis peaks minema ajakirjandusliku töö peale. Juristid vaidlevad siiani.
Sageli ei ole sellised nõuded sisulised, vaid kannavad endast pelgalt vaigistamise eesmärki. Kui palju jaksab ja tahab üks meediaväljaanne vaielda? Ühe meid jur asjades nõustava inimese sõnul maksab üks aste vaidlust keskmiselt 10 000 eurot plussmiinus.
Read 10 tweets
Apr 12
EE counter-intel agency KAPO published today its annual review. Here are some of the highlights. KAPO says it's a 'public secret that Russia's top deciders have for years received biased information".
Occasionally the info is bent already by its initial creators but 'self-censorship definitely kicks in at mid-level'. "State administrators and Putin only receive information that gives them satisfaction."
KAPO says Russia wasn't adequately prepared to launch coordinated cyber attacks as part of the war against Ukraine.
Read 10 tweets
Apr 11
Alustasime Ekspress Meedia uurivas toimetuses 2a tagasi kolmekesi. Tänaseks on meid 7, seltskond rahvusvaheline. Kasutan võimalust me rakukest tutvustada.

Our investigative team of 3 has now grown to 7 ppl, we're now truly international. Let me use a chance to introduce us. ⬇️⬇️
.@riinaljas on meie dataajakirjanik. Kui meie töötame wordis, google drive'is ja chrome'is, siis Riinu ekraanil jookseb mustal taustal kood. Seda on teinekord hea rahustav vaadata, antistress.
Riinuga samas reas istuvad @martinlaineolen, kes Twitteri rahvale suuremat tutvustust ei vaja, ja @l_kaili. Kaili on alates veebruarist faktikontrolör ja vabal ajal hoiab meid kursis TikToki trendidega.
Read 6 tweets
Mar 15
Two Swedish high profile union leaders were murdered in Tallinn in early 1991, the uncertain months leading to the collapse of the Soviet Union. The investigators flown in from Moscow said it was a robbery gone wrong.
The Swedish police weren't allowed to verify their claims. They never bought the official version. Now, an investigation by @farnbo (and a little help from me) reveals new details.
One of the murderers came from a notorious GRU Spetsnaz unit. Pages with his confession were torn out from the investigation file. His lawyer wasn't present at interrogation because of an alleged car accident.
Read 7 tweets
Mar 11
🧵I talked with an Estonian analyst who has access to info and who I regard as one of the best we have here. His main conclusion: "The danger is far from over but there is reason for a very cautious optimism. Russian advance has clearly stalled." More below:
Since last Sat it's been relatively stable on the fronts. There is an expectation of a reforming of RU units and a new line of attack, but so far little evidence of it. "If Russia doesn't achieve a remarkable advance by end of week, difficult to see how it should come at all."
The sth line of attack has split in 2, one advancing twd Mykolaiv, the other to Kryvyi Rih. This is serious risk to RU forces as the supply lines, which we already know are crap, will be dragged even longer. "This leaves the Ukrainians plenty of chance to 'beat them to pieces'.
Read 11 tweets
Feb 27
THREAD
A few bulletpoints from an interview I had today with the EE Foreign Intel chief @MarrMikk.

*Putin presumed (falsely) a 48-hours 'shock and awe' type of war. Now there's reformation and fresh units will be sent towards Kiev.
There's a risk of RU using more extensive firepower & 'less avoidance of targeting civil objects'.

"I assess today that Putin can't wage an intensive war for more than 2 months." Refers to low motivation, growing tiredness of RU troops + high resistance level in UA.
"Until now, the presumption was that RU does not want a war with NATO. The now-ongoing scenario indicates that this presumption might not hold any longer."
Read 10 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(