Are you ready for a mega-thread on how a #ProgressiveAlliance stand-aside pact could hammer the Tories, @getprdone, and pave the way for a return to the EU and the steady rebuilding of the UK's international reputation? No-one else has laid out a method yet, so here goes... 🧵
1/32 Assigning seats in a progressive stand-aside pact.
A progressive stand-aside pact has been promoted by a number of progressive commentators as a means to ensure progressive victory at the next general election.
There have only been two in-depth attempts to investigate...
A progressive stand-aside pact has been promoted by a number of progressive commentators as a means to ensure progressive victory at the next general election.
There have only been two in-depth attempts to investigate...
2/ what a stand-aside pact might do to an election result. These have both been carried out by Andrew Blick for the Constitution Society: consoc.org.uk/publications/e…
These polls were carried out one year apart, at a time when the Conservatives had around a 10 point poll lead,...
These polls were carried out one year apart, at a time when the Conservatives had around a 10 point poll lead,...
3/ and in May 2022, when the Labour party had around a 5 point poll lead.
The polls yielded the results in the table below.
A full stand-aside pact in all English and Welsh seats might therefore yield an enormous Labour majority with even a small Labour poll lead with under..
The polls yielded the results in the table below.
A full stand-aside pact in all English and Welsh seats might therefore yield an enormous Labour majority with even a small Labour poll lead with under..
4/ 40% popular support.
These results would be far from proportional and would lead to the Labour party being able to ignore their pact partners and easily govern alone. The Labour party has just passed a proportional representation motion at its conference. It is also...
These results would be far from proportional and would lead to the Labour party being able to ignore their pact partners and easily govern alone. The Labour party has just passed a proportional representation motion at its conference. It is also...
5/ unlikely that the Liberal Democrats and Green party would be prepared to stand aside in so many constituencies without that action leading to a guaranteed place in a coalition government.
Using the results of the “update one year on” May 2022 Constitution Society poll as...
Using the results of the “update one year on” May 2022 Constitution Society poll as...
6/ a starting point, I have sought to propose the assignation of Conservative held seats in such a way as to minimise inter-party dispute and maximise the potential proportionality of the subsequent election result. Only those Conservative seats that were won by progressive...
7/ parties in the “update one year on” have been assigned to progressive parties in this suggested course of action.
It might also be prudent to only conduct a pact in around 250 seats, and let elections be fought as usual in the other 400 seats. Seats currently held by...
It might also be prudent to only conduct a pact in around 250 seats, and let elections be fought as usual in the other 400 seats. Seats currently held by...
8/ progressives are unlikely to be won by the Conservatives at the next election anyway, so a pact in these places would be unnecessary. Seeking to win even more seats from the Conservatives might take the seat share for the Conservatives far below proportionality. This would..
9/ dilute the plausibility of the argument that we are trying to win proportional representation in a first-past-the-post election.
It is also very possible for Liberal Democrats and Greens to ensure the success of a pact without Labour participation. All they need do is not..
It is also very possible for Liberal Democrats and Greens to ensure the success of a pact without Labour participation. All they need do is not..
10/ stand candidates in the suggested Labour targets, stand aside for each other in their assigned targets, and stand together as normal in places they do not think Labour should win. These tactical voting instructions could be helped still further by a new party...
11/ (eg Volt UK) seeking to stand only in long-shot Labour targets in order to distinguish them from Labour's held seats. The more help these parties can give to tactical voters, the greater the likelihood of a hung parliament with a strong progressive coalition majority...
12/ This is the desired outcome for a growing number of pro-democracy campaigners who do not trust the Labour party to deliver proportional representation, but are confident smaller parties will ensure the wishes of Labour party members and their affiliated unions are...
13/ respected in the case of a hung parliament.
These suggestions are of course for the current parliamentary boundaries. It is highly desirable to have large-scale polling evidence on which to assign the post-boundary-change constituencies to each party in a stand-aside...
These suggestions are of course for the current parliamentary boundaries. It is highly desirable to have large-scale polling evidence on which to assign the post-boundary-change constituencies to each party in a stand-aside...
14/ pact. If parties had access to this information, and were to start publicly discussing a pact as a potential course of action, there would be mounting pressure on the Conservative party to call a general election whenever they get any whiff of the possibility of winning...
15/ one. If defeat in 2024 is an absolute certainty due to opposition co-operation, one can only hope the pressure to call an election early causes the Conservatives to make a misjudgement and be out of power much sooner than anticipated.
This thread is not intended to be...
This thread is not intended to be...
16/ the final word on this matter, but rather to provoke discussion of the options parties have for a stand-aside pact strategy at the next election. Local parties might feel they know better what their capabilities are and wish to swap their assigned constituencies with...
17/ other parties or with those that were not won by progressives in the “one year on” polling research.
THE PROPOSAL:
Labour get a free run at every Conservative held seat where Labour were within 20 percentage points in 2019 with the exception of:
Finchley and Golders...
THE PROPOSAL:
Labour get a free run at every Conservative held seat where Labour were within 20 percentage points in 2019 with the exception of:
Finchley and Golders...
18/ Green, York Outer, Colchester, Wimbledon, and Cities of London and Westminster, which will be contested by the Liberal Democrats.
Liberal Democrats will contest every remaining Conservative seat projected to be won by progressives in the “update one year on” where the...
Liberal Democrats will contest every remaining Conservative seat projected to be won by progressives in the “update one year on” where the...
19/ Liberal Democrats polled higher than 17.5% in 2019. In the remaining projected progressive wins, the Liberal Democrats will stand unless the Greens won over 3.5% of the vote in 2019, in which case the Greens will stand.
This gives the Lib Dems 102 stand-aside targets if...
This gives the Lib Dems 102 stand-aside targets if...
20/ they stop at 6.5% vote share, and include their by-election wins in Tiverton and Honiton, Chesham and Amersham, and North Shropshire.
The Greens will have 41 projected progressive wins from the “update one year on” in which they can stand.
This leaves 22 progressive wins...
The Greens will have 41 projected progressive wins from the “update one year on” in which they can stand.
This leaves 22 progressive wins...
21/ from the “update one year on” not included in the pact agreement.
In total, this should give Labour 300 seats (46%), the Lib Dems 113 (17%), and the Greens 41 (6%) if they retain their held seats and win those assigned to them. If we grant the Green party the remaining...
In total, this should give Labour 300 seats (46%), the Lib Dems 113 (17%), and the Greens 41 (6%) if they retain their held seats and win those assigned to them. If we grant the Green party the remaining...
22/ 22 constituencies won in the “update one year on”, that would give them 63 seats (10%), and ensure if all pact seats were successfully won, each party would attain representation proportional to their highest recent opinion polling result...
23/ (prior to the “mini-budget”) + 1-2%.
The seats assigned to Labour would seem to be quite easy for them to win, even without a pact arrangement. The Liberal Democrat seats would seem less likely victories, and the Green seats less likely still. The Constitution Society...
The seats assigned to Labour would seem to be quite easy for them to win, even without a pact arrangement. The Liberal Democrat seats would seem less likely victories, and the Green seats less likely still. The Constitution Society...
24/ research did however find their polling question produced a high likelihood of victory for the Greens in these pact seats in some places which did not seem intuitive. It makes sense for each party to be assigned seats according to their winnability, with the rising tide...
25/ of progressive support being last to raise the boats of the Green party, the party with least to lose, and most to win, in adopting this course of action.
The colours on the spreadsheets below indicate the party that were assigned the seat (and won it) in the “update one...
The colours on the spreadsheets below indicate the party that were assigned the seat (and won it) in the “update one...
26/ year on” projection.
27/
28/
29/
30/
31/
32/32
Well done for getting to the end of this thread 👍
I'll be at the @MarchForRejoin on the 22nd holding up placards with @UkVolt stuff on them if anyone wants an in-person chat 🙂
Well done for getting to the end of this thread 👍
I'll be at the @MarchForRejoin on the 22nd holding up placards with @UkVolt stuff on them if anyone wants an in-person chat 🙂
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