🧵 Hill sees Putin trying to get the West to accede to his aims by using messengers like billionaire Elon Musk to propose arrangements that would end the conflict on his terms. ‘Putin plays the egos of big men, gives them a sense that they can play a role. …
Putin, using Musk, “is basically short-circuiting the diplomatic process. He wants to lay out his terms & see how many people are going to pick them up. All of this is an effort to get Americans to take themselves out of the war” politico.com/news/magazine/…
Though Putin has called it a partial mobilization, “it’s really a stealth full mobilization.” Putin’s responding to the cohort around him that have pushed for the invasion of Ukraine for some considerable amount of time, & “they are not satisfied. They want Ukraine dismembered.”
“What he’s making sure of is that there’s no one who could lead these protests & make them coalesce.
If you think back to when Navalny was poisoned in 2020, he was out in the Urals region & Siberia, pulling together opposition groups at a time when there were many protests going
“on in Russia. He was poisoned because he was getting some traction.
Nonetheless, the mobilization chips away at Putin’s popularity because people feel that they’ve got no hope. They’re no longer able to watch the war on their TV screens & switch it off and forget it’s happening”
“Support for the war was already fairly passive, but active support for the war is declining and support for Putin himself will decline as well. And he’s got to keep placating the hardliners. So, he’s got to take extreme actions.” politico.com/news/magazine/…
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🧵Russian diplomat who quit over Russian invasion of Ukraine: “For me, one of the invasion’s central lessons had to do with something I had witnessed over the preceding two decades: what happens when a government is slowly warped by its own propaganda.”
“…Eventually, the target audience for this propaganda was not just foreign countries; it was our own leadership. … The war is a stark demonstration of how decisions made in echo chambers can backfire.”
At US Russia talks in Geneva in Jan. 2022, where author was a liaison officer, the Russian proposal “was bewildering, filled with provisions that would clearly be unacceptable to the West…I chatted with our delegates during coffee breaks, and they seemed perplexed as well.
🧵 FT’s @Najmeh_Tehran: “The protests are a serious warning to Iran’s rulers that they are grappling with a different generation, many of whom do not relate to the regime’s ideology & are furious about being deprived of the everyday freedoms ft.com/content/9ef27d… 1/
“& opportunities afforded to their international peers. Their movement has the potential to inspire more demonstrations and strikes as a cost of living crisis deepens, posing one of the most significant threats to the Islamic republic’s 43-year dominance.”
“An increasingly educated population, including women who occupy about 60% of university places, fast-paced urban development and wider access to the internet and smartphones, have raised public expectations.” ft.com/content/9ef27d…
FBI witness, called by prosecution: Danchenko “reshaped the way the US even perceives threats,” bureau had not had an informant with comparable source network during his 20 years there.
“A veteran FBI counterintel agent testified on Thursday that the Trump Justice Dept’s decision in 2020 to release sensitive documents about a bureau informant to a Senate committee examining the bureau’s Russia investigation had damaged national security.” nytimes.com/2022/10/13/us/…
Rep. Aguilar: showing Trump was planning the violence, knew what he was going to do, send armed angry mob to Capitol.
Aguilar: “And I will also note this, the committee is reviewing testimony regarding potential obstruction on this issue, including testimony about advice given not to tell the committee about this specific topic.” seemingly related to Ornato/secret service
Current & former US officials who advocated for the Biden trip as a way to try to put the relationship on a better footing seem to be the most convinced now that reason the relationship doesn’t work is because the U.S. does not have a partner in Riyadh. diplomatic.substack.com/p/there-will-b…
“Biden was still right to go and make the effort,” a former senior US official told me. “But we do need partners to make it possible. Partners don’t do this, so a reevaluation is now clearly inevitable.”