CA Kanan Bahl Profile picture
Oct 18 โ€ข 8 tweets โ€ข 2 min read
Tata Elxsi is down by 14% in 2 days ๐Ÿฅต

Even though the profits are 40% up YoY๐Ÿซฃ

All this just because of ~6% drop in QoQ profitsโ“๐Ÿคฏ

What to doโ“ Read on๐Ÿ‘‡ #TataElxsi
A. Financial performance

While revenue grew by 5.1% QoQ,

EBITDA dipped by 4.6%, PAT by 5.6%

And EBITDA Margins by over 3.1%

Mgmt has not re-assured about revival of margins yet
B. Is the fall justified?

There is hardly any dip in momentum of revenue growth

Margins and thus, profitability has dipped

But the consistent high margins over the last 2 years were the reason why market gave Elxsi a P/E of over 100 once

Now it is down to 66.2
C. What is a fair PE?

It is very difficult to say what is fair, but let us take 30x PE for long term estimates

If we expect a IRR of 15% over our investments,

Elxsi's earnings need to compound at 24.6% for next 10 years (>9 times) Image
D. Is this achievable?

I would say YES, given the mgmt capability and futuristic technology they work on

But Margins should stay stable for that

And you should be expecting a return of 15% IRR (not like 10x in 3 years)

Disc. Not investment advice
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More from @BahlKanan

Oct 17
PVR's EBITDA fell by 94% from last quarter ๐Ÿคฏ

But share didn't fall at all ๐Ÿ˜ฎโ€๐Ÿ’จ

Why market didn't punish PVRโ“

Can anything good happen from here? ๐Ÿค” Read on ๐Ÿ‘‡
1. Revenue fell by 30% QoQ

2. PAT was (56.6) Cr. from +68.3 Cr in last qtr

3. Advertisement Income also dropped by 9%
4. Occupancy dropped from 34% to 24% QoQ

This was the major reason of drop in numbers

5. This all happened because of failure of movies
- Lal Singh Chaddha flopped
- Raksha Bandhan flopped
- Bhramastra didn't perform as expected
Read 10 tweets
Oct 16
ITC is releasing its results on 20th Oct ๐Ÿ˜ฌ

Its top-line is expected to grow by 24.2% YoY๐Ÿคฉ

But expected to contract by 8.6% QoQ๐Ÿฅต

What to do๐Ÿค”โ“ Read on ๐Ÿ‘‡ #ITC
1. Expectations are what Analysts' believe, the company will report in its Quarterly results ๐Ÿ”ข

The expectations are already factored in the share price ๐Ÿซฃ

If results > expectations, share price goes up ๐Ÿš€

and vice-versa ๐Ÿ”ป
2. Motilal Oswal (MOSFL)'s about ITC's results๐Ÿ‘‡:

a. Revenue to go up by 24.2% YoY๐Ÿš€; -8.6% QoQ๐Ÿ”ป

b. EBITDA to go up by 16.5% YoY๐Ÿš€; -5.1% QoQ๐Ÿ”ป

c. PAT to go up by 14.1% YoY๐Ÿš€; 1.2% QoQ๐Ÿš€

(Let me know if you wanna understand what these terms mean)
Read 6 tweets
Oct 7
Adani Enterprises' signing auditor of 2018 had qualified CA in 2017 ๐Ÿคฏ

@MorningContext 's story has revealed many other startling facts๐Ÿฅต

Read on ๐Ÿ‘‡๐Ÿงต
1. Current auditor who started signing Adani Enterprises (AEL)'s financials qualified CA in 2017

Auditors of high corporate governance standards companies having similar market cap have following experience:

ITC - 33 years
HDFC - 29 years
Bajaj Finance - 28 years
[2] Dharmesh Parikh & Co used to sign AEL until 2017

They retired for FY18 due to rotation

New auditors Shah Dhandharia & Co. were appointed

They've 3 partners who interned at Dharmesh Parikh & Co. (previous auditors)

Rotation policy might not have been followed in essence
Read 9 tweets
Oct 6
Credit Suisse's share has fallen by 95.38% from top ๐Ÿคฏ

Are we going to see the next Lehman Brothers? ๐Ÿ˜จ

When it happened, Nifty fell by 63% from top ๐Ÿ”ป

Let's decode this in this small thread ๐Ÿงต
What happened exactly? ๐Ÿค”

Not one but many reasons โ™พ๏ธ

Let us decode them๐Ÿ‘‡
1. Management Commentary

Bank CEO has said that media is making factually incorrect statements

Fall in share price should not be equated with bank's strong capital base

Interesting Fact:
Even Lehman Brothers' execs gave a similar statement just 1 month before bankruptcy
Read 9 tweets
Sep 14
NHAI Bonds discontinued ๐Ÿ˜ฐ

How to save Long-Term Capital Gains (LTCG) Tax on sale of property? ๐Ÿค”

Recently, I helped my client save INR 10,73,282 in LTCG taxes ๐Ÿคฏ

5 ways you can do it too ๐Ÿคฉ๐Ÿ‘‡
1. Buying another house, on sale of a house

We have generally observed that, when someone sells his / her house, it is to buy another house

If you buy a new house with your capital gains (100% of cap gains or more),

Then the income tax department wonโ€™t come after you
2. Buying another house

Wait, how is that different from 1st point?

Here, you get exemption on sale of any long term asset (other than a residential house) on buying / constructing a one residential house

However, you should be not be having >1 residential house already
Read 9 tweets
Aug 30
Planning to purchase a residential house? ๐Ÿ˜๏ธ

Follow these tips from my practical experience ๐Ÿ‘‡

And save LAKHS๐Ÿคฏ:
๐Ÿ. ๐‚๐ก๐ž๐œ๐ค ๐š๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ซ๐จ๐ฏ๐š๐ฅ ๐ฌ๐ญ๐š๐ญ๐ฎ๐ฌ ๐Ÿ๐ซ๐จ๐ฆ ๐๐š๐ง๐ค

Before giving the token amount to the builder, check if your flat / under construction floor is approved by the bank

Get the APN code of Under Construction apartments
๐Ÿ. ๐ƒ๐จ๐ง'๐ญ ๐Ÿ๐š๐ฅ๐ฅ ๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ ๐ญ๐ก๐ž ๐ฅ๐จ๐ฐ๐ž๐ซ ๐ฅ๐จ๐š๐ง ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐ž๐ซ๐ž๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ซ๐š๐ญ๐ž ๐›๐š๐ข๐ญ

Bankers might give you 20 bps lower interest rates

Just to lure you vis-a-vis other banks

BUT charge hidden costs at the time of your registry
Read 14 tweets

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