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The key to success is documentation. Profile picture
@VietVantage
Oct 18, 2022 • 9 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
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#SWAP alert Image
with this swap, it looks like usdeur and usdgbp both weakened. Currency pairs - one side gets weak, other strong - USD will probably get strong. Not good for risk assets. Image
I will also suggest that dxy is funny instrument - member states can cut interest rates and dxy goes up, and member states can raise interest rates and dxy goes down - totally not intuitive.

CB's can play all kinds of games with currencies.

Many times its just a crap shoot Image
Well, looks like faceripper time - fed is cutting interest rates on the 30y

either that or they are loading guns for a different swap Image
This mornings swap was to synch all DXY member states to CA30 bonds (canadian) (1) now all currencies move as canadian currency.

Canada is #1 exporter of oil to USA

Usually oil++ means canadian dollar++ - so now everyone moves like canadian dollar

DXY = USDCAD now. Image
So now the game will be for japan to buy more canadian bonds, weakening usdcad even more.

As USDCAD weakens, cause dxy states linked, DXY would weaken, stonks would moon.

Lets see...

Zooomed in so its easier to see #2 is ca30y bond yield Image
oil producers may own physical, but no one is as masterful at currency games than dxy states.

no.
one.
Im sure a 200bp move in oil (down) is completely normal....
with dxy currencies now synched to cad, fed has to LOWER rates else oil will crash. Image

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More from @VietVantage

The key to success is documentation. Profile picture
Sep 28
The US is hell bent on destroying the dollar.

I got curious why US would extend a swap line to a shit country that has failed to repay its debts.

For context here is the weekly view of USDARS

Up on this chart is massive inflation for the locals.

The currency is worthless
👇🧵 Image
China said no more Image
US stepped in (shit) Image
Image
Read 15 tweets
The key to success is documentation. Profile picture
Sep 26
I look at the market upside down from you, but today i'll make an exception.

This is OVX - its oil volatility.

OVX and VIX are positively correlated.

On this chart? Ovx is rising (going down).
👇🧵 Image
OVX and SPY are negatively correlated.

If you are a bull you want the yellow line to go up Image
That is the 5y USA bond. When it goes up it costs more to take an autoloan or borrow money.

Markets traditionally do not like it when yields go up like this. Image
Read 54 tweets
The key to success is documentation. Profile picture
Jun 26
This is beef.

Since covid its up nearly 175%

Many of you eat hamburger and madonnas.

This is why madonna's is no longer affordable.
👇🧵 Image
Here is mcdonna's vs beef

"Oz - they didnt collapse with beef going up??!"

correct.

And there's raisons.... Image
Enter currencies - zimbabwe'ing the currency has implications for the underlying

when u c it Image
Read 15 tweets
The key to success is documentation. Profile picture
Jun 25
The Final Reckoning - A Nation Consumes Itself
🧵👇

I study the vix, geopolitics and currencies - trying to make sense of what is actually happening in the context of sound bites we get here or there from government.

Its hard to paint an actual picture from a single sound bite or news article.

But when you put them all together you paint a tapestry - some call it a masterpiece - others call it a dystopian hellscape.

For each point I will try to include a relevant news topic.

Lets begin.
The U.S. is not just struggling; it's in a death spiral.

Driven by hyperinflation & desperation, the government is making choices that solidify its descent into kleptocracy and civil breakdown.

Here’s the terrifying truth that is unfolding
Crypto: Not Innovation, But Capitulation.

The government, facing a worthless dollar, is now frantically trying to contain crypto by regulating it into the banking system.

This isn't forward-thinking; it's a desperate attempt to co-opt the flight from fiat before total loss of control.

Its an admission the dollar is no longer a store of value which is pretty damning for a government to turn against its own currency like this.

#DeDollarization #CryptoControl

abcnews.go.com/Business/geniu…
Read 35 tweets
The key to success is documentation. Profile picture
Jun 17
Lets build.

This is my calculated vix.
The higher it goes the higher the vix should be.

👇🧵 Image
It is a function of bond yields.
Bond yields SLOW the markets down.
Its MORE expensive to borrow

The west runs on finance- price of debt (the yield) matters a lot, just like it matters to you when you buy a car a house or put chipotle on credit. Image
Zoomed in on right side Image
Read 42 tweets
The key to success is documentation. Profile picture
Jun 17
A while back i calculated what the vix SHOULD be based on yields.

(1) you can see clear correlation
(2) it broke but the peaks still match
🧵👇 Image
The vix is a function of bond yields. Image
Read 9 tweets

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