Thread by @frankoz95967943

#SWAP alert

with this swap, it looks like usdeur and usdgbp both weakened. Currency pairs - one side gets weak, other strong - USD will probably get strong. Not good for risk assets.

I will also suggest that dxy is funny instrument - member states can cut interest rates and dxy goes up, and member states can raise interest rates and dxy goes down - totally not intuitive.

CB's can play all kinds of games with currencies.

Many times its just a crap shoot

Well, looks like faceripper time - fed is cutting interest rates on the 30y

either that or they are loading guns for a different swap

This mornings swap was to synch all DXY member states to CA30 bonds (canadian) (1) now all currencies move as canadian currency.

Canada is #1 exporter of oil to USA

Usually oil++ means canadian dollar++ - so now everyone moves like canadian dollar

DXY = USDCAD now.

So now the game will be for japan to buy more canadian bonds, weakening usdcad even more.

As USDCAD weakens, cause dxy states linked, DXY would weaken, stonks would moon.

Lets see...

Zooomed in so its easier to see #2 is ca30y bond yield

oil producers may own physical, but no one is as masterful at currency games than dxy states.

no.
one.

Im sure a 200bp move in oil (down) is completely normal....

with dxy currencies now synched to cad, fed has to LOWER rates else oil will crash.