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Expound the profound-Cut'n thru bs 1 layer @a time Profile picture
@frankoz95967943
Oct 18, 2022 • 9 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
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#SWAP alert Image
with this swap, it looks like usdeur and usdgbp both weakened. Currency pairs - one side gets weak, other strong - USD will probably get strong. Not good for risk assets. Image
I will also suggest that dxy is funny instrument - member states can cut interest rates and dxy goes up, and member states can raise interest rates and dxy goes down - totally not intuitive.

CB's can play all kinds of games with currencies.

Many times its just a crap shoot Image
Well, looks like faceripper time - fed is cutting interest rates on the 30y

either that or they are loading guns for a different swap Image
This mornings swap was to synch all DXY member states to CA30 bonds (canadian) (1) now all currencies move as canadian currency.

Canada is #1 exporter of oil to USA

Usually oil++ means canadian dollar++ - so now everyone moves like canadian dollar

DXY = USDCAD now. Image
So now the game will be for japan to buy more canadian bonds, weakening usdcad even more.

As USDCAD weakens, cause dxy states linked, DXY would weaken, stonks would moon.

Lets see...

Zooomed in so its easier to see #2 is ca30y bond yield Image
oil producers may own physical, but no one is as masterful at currency games than dxy states.

no.
one.
Im sure a 200bp move in oil (down) is completely normal....
with dxy currencies now synched to cad, fed has to LOWER rates else oil will crash. Image

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More from @frankoz95967943

Expound the profound-Cut'n thru bs 1 layer @a time Profile picture
Apr 18
The US is going to ban Chinese ADR's.
Its coming.

Trump needs more leverage, and this will be part of that leverage.

In prior administration he already started the process...he's going to cut china off from US capital markets completely.
🧵👇 Image
What the hell is an adr?
sec.gov/investor/alert…
You can easily find them in finviz.com
just go to filter and select ADR

finviz.com/screener.ashx?… Image
Read 27 tweets
Expound the profound-Cut'n thru bs 1 layer @a time Profile picture
Apr 14
This is a currency/trade/capital flows thread.

Stay with me - you will like this, but its complex....

Genomics is the study of DNA, and the RELATIONSHIPS (pay attn to that) of those genes and how they interact with each other.

👇🧵
DNA is like the instruction manual for building that castle. It tells your body how to grow and what it should look like. It's like a super long, twisty ladder inside tiny parts of you called cells.
Genes are like the special LEGO bricks in the instruction manual. Each gene has instructions for a specific part of you, like your eye color or how tall you might grow.
Read 19 tweets
Expound the profound-Cut'n thru bs 1 layer @a time Profile picture
Apr 12
There is a different way to look at the US that very people think about.

Namely, the flow of $$ from US out to the planet

When the world sends USA cheap goods, its not just deflationary,but its also massively beneficial to foreign asset h0dlrs.

This is a currency thread
🧵👇
So first of all, understand trade.
US prints money, lends it into existence in US.
People use that $$ and buy stuff, usually from abroad.

They send us cheap crap, we send them worthless pieces of paper.
Its what they do with that cash is whats important.

Do they:
a) buy us Equities?
b) buy US debt?
c) lend it to other nations who need dollars?

Most countries internally do not use USD.
Read 54 tweets
Expound the profound-Cut'n thru bs 1 layer @a time Profile picture
Apr 6
Lets build.

This is the US02Y bond yield.

As yields on this debt instrument goes up?
The cost of borrowing goes up.

So when that green line goes up your credit card, variable mortgage, new car loan interest rate, student loan, all goes up.

The orange line is the SPR

🧵👇 Image
the 2y going up is NOT bullish....but it can be FAKED to MAKE it bullish.

The US did 2 things:
a) print a FUCK ton of money to sell to the world to devalue its currency
b) fucked with the vix

here is b) Image
and here is a)

The whole point of this was to devalue its way out of trouble.

Its also why you can no longer afford groceries and why your job is going overseas.

When covid hit the govt had the excuse to intervene (1)

But then they just couldnt stop spending.... (2) Image
Read 8 tweets
Expound the profound-Cut'n thru bs 1 layer @a time Profile picture
Apr 1
In a currency war, you win by out "devaluing" your currency vs your trading partner.

You do this to gain market advantage - your products become CHEAPER than your competitor, killing your competitors industry.

The white line is china - when the white line goes up (9 of them) china devalued.

Notice that giant plunge near #4?

Notice the yellow line - thats global liquidity - and its inverted - so you can clearly see central bank interventions and its impact on the chinese currency.

G7 loaded up on debt, and out china'ed china....

Lately they stopped - because inflation now is raging.
🧵👇Image
Remember - currencies are a RATIO.

So when chinas currency goes up on this chart - it gets WEAKER relative to USD.

Which means the USD gets STRONGER.

Stronger USD = bad for US exports, particularly to china.

It means China wins global trade vs US because everything is so cheap.Image
Tariffs equalize trade and offset this nonsense.

Tariffs make this cheap chinese export due to currency games less competitive.

US cannot control what china does, but it can control what it imports from china.

theguardian.com/us-news/2025/a…
Read 49 tweets
Expound the profound-Cut'n thru bs 1 layer @a time Profile picture
Mar 31
Lets build -this is a short one, but if you been following a while, you know my view that the vix has been sanitized thru currencies (and suppressed)

Here is tech stonk - ndx.

🧵👇 Image
add uvix - now a 1:1000 instrument after all the reverse splits - used to suppress long dated vix premium.

Uvix was launched 3 years ago to this day, 1 month after the poot invaded ukraine.

I firmly believe its a war powers entity designed to protect the stonk market. Image
Oil producers currencies.

On this chart - purple down means their currency got VERY strong relative to mexico (I use mexico to remove USD influence)

Notice the correlation to stonk..... Image
Read 23 tweets

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