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Expound the profound-Cut'n thru bs 1 layer @a time Profile picture
@frankoz95967943
Oct 18, 2022 • 9 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
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#SWAP alert Image
with this swap, it looks like usdeur and usdgbp both weakened. Currency pairs - one side gets weak, other strong - USD will probably get strong. Not good for risk assets. Image
I will also suggest that dxy is funny instrument - member states can cut interest rates and dxy goes up, and member states can raise interest rates and dxy goes down - totally not intuitive.

CB's can play all kinds of games with currencies.

Many times its just a crap shoot Image
Well, looks like faceripper time - fed is cutting interest rates on the 30y

either that or they are loading guns for a different swap Image
This mornings swap was to synch all DXY member states to CA30 bonds (canadian) (1) now all currencies move as canadian currency.

Canada is #1 exporter of oil to USA

Usually oil++ means canadian dollar++ - so now everyone moves like canadian dollar

DXY = USDCAD now. Image
So now the game will be for japan to buy more canadian bonds, weakening usdcad even more.

As USDCAD weakens, cause dxy states linked, DXY would weaken, stonks would moon.

Lets see...

Zooomed in so its easier to see #2 is ca30y bond yield Image
oil producers may own physical, but no one is as masterful at currency games than dxy states.

no.
one.
Im sure a 200bp move in oil (down) is completely normal....
with dxy currencies now synched to cad, fed has to LOWER rates else oil will crash. Image

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More from @frankoz95967943

Expound the profound-Cut'n thru bs 1 layer @a time Profile picture
Nov 6
Last night was interesting - the planners used the cover of trumps election to rebalance global currencies.

Here is the vix.
🧵👇 Image
Heres foreign oil producing currencies - on this chart purple line going up?
It means foreign currencies got STRONGER.

But heres the deal - ya, they produce oil, but thats not the only trade that goes on.

And the g7 planners need to keep some level of parity to otther currenciesImage
Thats the Euro-pee; notice that move

They weakened the F out of their currency.

For the Euro-P to weaken like this one of 2 things need to happen:
1) Someone bought a f tone of euro-pee debt
or
2) They printed a F ton of money Image
Read 12 tweets
Expound the profound-Cut'n thru bs 1 layer @a time Profile picture
Nov 2
Another currency thread.

Say you own some sparkly.

If you go to the local market the sparkly has a known value.

Say the local value is 100 schmeckels.
🧵👇
But one day you decide to travel to country Zenoblob.

In Zenoblob that sparkly is HIGHLY desired.

You can break of just a tiny bit of the sparkly and with it you can exchange that tiny bit for the best restaurants, the best transportation, the best hotels and still have a lot of sparkly left over.
You go home thinking you are a genius so you start looking for more sparkly.

You find another chunk of sparkly and this year you try the same thing again.
Read 62 tweets
Expound the profound-Cut'n thru bs 1 layer @a time Profile picture
Oct 8
These are all g7 currencies.
The planners decided to weaken vs the price of oil.

Read another way? It means USD got stronger.

So EUR, JPY, CHF all got weaker vs USD.....

👇🧵 Image
at the same time here they are vs Saud.
They are all weaker vs the Saudi oil currency too...

So weaker vs USD, and weaker vs Saudi Image
Thick purple line - they all sold US debt. Image
Read 15 tweets
Expound the profound-Cut'n thru bs 1 layer @a time Profile picture
Sep 25
Lets talk about sdr's

(special drawing rights)

As of July 31, 2024, U.S. SDR Holdings were SDR 126.8 billion.

👇🧵 home.treasury.gov/system/files/2…
In July 2024, Treasury, through the ESF, purchased
SDR 400 million from Ukraine in exchange for approximately $530 million.

Note that this wasnt reported in any newspaper.
home.treasury.gov/system/files/2…
The treasury sold 10B of SDR's to the FED.
The fed is legally obligated to buy them.
The fed gets 10B in SDR's ...the treasury gets 10B in USD

The 10B is immediately usable by the treasury for any govt spending. No congressional approval needed. Image
Read 44 tweets
Expound the profound-Cut'n thru bs 1 layer @a time Profile picture
Sep 17
This is gold.
It is inverted.
The lower the line goes the higher the price of gold in USD.

When it takes more USD to buy gold?
Thats a measure of inflation.

2nd chart zoomed out.
👇🧵
Image
Image
Here is USDJPY (the jPanesa) and US long bond yields.

Notice the striking correlations

On this chart - when the blue line goes up, bond yields go down. When the blue line goes down, bond yields go up.

The higher the blue line goes on this chart? The lower the bond yield. Lower bond yield = new car loans go down, credit card interest rates go down, etc.

Blue line going up = FRENCH TICKER

Its *STIMULATIVE*

Stonk loves when blue line go up.

because jPanesa own so much US debt, they can move bonds with ease. ESP so because the jAnet isnt selling as much long bond - this makes jPans job easier.Image
They do all of this to control currency - in green.
When the green line goes up the USD gets weaker.
A weaker USD means US exports get cheaper.

Your groceries get more expensi.
Your overseas vacation gets more expensi.
Anything US imports gets more expensi. Image
Read 25 tweets
Expound the profound-Cut'n thru bs 1 layer @a time Profile picture
Sep 13
On September 11th there was a major economic event.
Core inflation went UP.

Normally this would mean that bond yields need to rise to get inflation to come down.

The same day the stonk market rallied over 1000pts.

Lets dig in and see what actually happened.
👇🧵 Image
The prior evening to this major econ metric, jpan lowered US long bond yields. Notice the tight correlation to USDJPY.

jPanesa is just the eastern branch of the federal reserve. Image
On the economic event - jPan did a hard swap (see top link of my profile page - it will take you to a list of threads - click "swaps") Image
Read 21 tweets

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