Thread by @althecat

[Ongoing #Vietnam #SthChina #ExtremeWeather Update thread Typhoon #NenengPH]

Image source @NASA #WorldView. [link >> worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?v=64.78263600…]

Presently a Cat 2 Typhoon #Nesat/#NenengPH is another massive late season storm forecast to make landfall on Oct 20th in the Gulf of Tonkin south of Hanoi and weaken to a Tropical Storm before doing so. the South China Island of Hainan will likely receive the worst of the storm.

Unfortunately the @zoom_earth Hinmawari Satellite imagery is not available. But from the weather radar data we can see that intense rain bands are now coming ashore on the east coast of Hainan, possibly accompanied by hurricane force winds.

This GFS3 animation shows the simulated the 850mb wind field of #NESAT approximately 1.5kms above ground.

And here we see simulated rainfall from 17:00UTC through to 6:00UTC 21st Oct (3 days)

This animation shows a slice of the latest West Pacific rainfall solution and it includes rainfall from a second land falling cyclone in Vietnam on around 23-24 Oct.

Here is the full 16-day rainfall simulation forecast.

And here in the full 16-day forecast you can pinpoint the current simulated tropical storms/typhoons - 5 at present over 16 days.

Bare in mind however that the prediction reliability of typhoons drops rapidly after three days.

However due to the high level of atmospheric moisture (this animation is of precipitable water) and the tropical stream coming in from the East, it is likely that there will be several storms, including some very large ones.

This graphic shows the tracks of the tropical storms to-date in the Western Pacfic's 2022 typhoon season. [Src: Wikipedia en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Paci…]

The record is 39 storms (1964) 2022 so far has seen 32 depressions, 21 storms and 10 typhoons. The 1964 record was 58 depressions.

[Ongoing coverage]

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