Thread by @lhsingapura

@che_huai 1. But are you as a Taiwanese serious about defending Taiwan? If Taiwan can’t fight for 60 days, your plan is for Americans to die for the defence of Taiwan.

2. Please explain: Why do concerned Taiwanese think that your MND is fundamentally unserious about defence reform?

https://twitter.com/paulhuangreport/status/1581758598790623232

@che_huai 3. Recently, Elbridge Colby, Paul Huang, Yun Sun & LTC (rtd) James Huang was on a panel, talking about the defence of Taiwan that is worth watching. A thought-provoking panel on Taiwanese MND’s lack of defence readiness at multiple levels.

@che_huai 4. The inherent advantages of the Taiwan’s geography & current military tech available for sale to Taiwan means that if your people willed it, you could make your island an impenetrable fortress for 60 days. But there is the catch. Taiwan must will it.

https://twitter.com/che_huai/status/1575174930311749633

@che_huai 5. President Tsai is supposed to unite the Taiwanese against PLA aggression but she didn't do anything a logical person is expected to do, except to use MND Twitter (as a channel) to brainwash Taiwan into greater complacency on their lack of preparedness. A slogans only army.

https://twitter.com/mondefense/status/1562348468278276096

@che_huai 6. In contrast to Taiwan, Finland’s investments in its military capabilities are terrain specific & the METT-TC of its reserve mobilised army takes into a/c the geopolitical circumstance of the country (eg.a friendly Sweden & pending mbership in NATO).

@che_huai 7. More importantly, Allied Joint Publication 01(D) describes the 3 dimensions of joint & allied interoperability — technical, procedural, & human — all 3 dimensions are missing btw Japan/America viz-a-viz Taiwanese forces.

@che_huai 8. The reality is that Taiwan's 188k strong army has far more similarity with the Russian Army than it does with the army of Finland or Korea. Taiwan will perform similarly to the Russians at Kharkiv unless drastic changes are made.

@che_huai 9. I just wish Taiwan would maintain your weapons & fighter aircraft properly — your MND can’t even demonstrate basic competence at a scripted Han Kuang military exercise.

https://twitter.com/rxroy/status/1551757171771449344

@che_huai 10. Even the Koreans are worried about the consequences of a Taiwan Straits conflict btw the ROC Army & the PLA. And we should start with the assumption is that Taiwan can’t last 60 days — b’cos Taiwan does not intend to stock enough ammo.

https://twitter.com/koreanforeigner/status/1574402362135179265

@che_huai 11. If President Tsai believes in Taiwan, invest in your conscripts. Give them the training & ammo they need to fight for 60 days.

12. Our conscripts & reservists are trained to fight — 4,040 flew into Australia to demonstrate capability at Ex Trident & Ex Wallaby.

https://twitter.com/mindefsg/status/1575772632300912642

@che_huai 13. Taiwan’s mindset on investing in military training has to change, now — before it is too late.

14. 492 Singaporeans went to Afghanistan & spent the 6 yrs there. Trying not to die — helped change the SAF’s mindset quad-service integration at war.

@che_huai 15. What most don’t realise — is that Taiwan has a bigger defence budget than Singapore.

16. Taiwan’s tank & AFV fleet is much bigger than ours. And yet, our German trained conscript tank & AFV crews are more competent at combined arms warfare than Taiwan’s professionals.

https://twitter.com/mindefsg/status/1572862505528877056

@che_huai 17. If Taiwan was being graded for your defence reforms, it will get a F-.

18. Throwing more money at defence does not solve Taiwan’s problem of lack of seriousness at war planning. The Americans know that under President Tsai, Taiwan is not making a serious effort at reform.

https://twitter.com/michaelhunzeker/status/1580986905088655360

@che_huai 19. Indonesians have asked me, how good is the PLA — my answer in multiple posts — not as good as their propaganda.

20. Just b’cos my answer is tt the PLA sucks, does not mean that the ROC Army should try to compete at seeing who sucks more.

https://twitter.com/enricoe39/status/1572080602748424193

@che_huai 21. America, Australia, Japan, Indonesia & Singapore are concerned abt a Taiwan Straits conflict — which is why all these countries sent troops to Indonesia to train.

22. @che_huai claims that Taiwan is getting prepared — but he is ignoring evidence others are more prepared.

https://twitter.com/16thcab/status/1557614673523920896

@che_huai 23. Indonesia which is btw the 1st & second island chains is thinking abt taking back their islands fm the PLA, as part of a larger multi-year campaign.

24. Taiwan is part of the 1st island chain. No help is coming for 60-90 days, if war starts. Taiwan better stock up on ammo.

https://twitter.com/collinslkoh/status/1393709933418348546

@che_huai 25. In a Taiwan Straits conflict scenario, the USN & US Marines have key role in the 1st island chain

26. In coalition with other military, the USARPAC (w interpreters & Singapore’s 3rd Div) would deploy to secure the Natuna Islands with the TNI agst a notional enemy.

https://twitter.com/enricoe39/status/1557234155880329221

@che_huai 27. Prior to a 1st strike at Guam, the PLA’s goal in troubled peace is to convert the South China Sea into a Chinese lake or contested space.

28. The only secure base for a coalition to push out forces from is Changi Naval Base (which is 570km away fm the Natuna Islands).

https://twitter.com/flightradar24/status/1555992050864103425

@che_huai 29. The route of #SPAR19 carrying Speaker Pelosi’s delegation, fm KL to Taipei, skirting the entire South China Sea, in an abundance of caution should tell you, how far the balance of power has been shifting in favour of the PLA(N).

@che_huai 30. Despite the PLA(N)’s size & capability, I am certain Singapore (with its F-15SGs, F-16s, MPAs, H-225Ms & CH-47s) is capable of deploying forces in coalition w others to assist in the recon/counter-recon fight at the Natuna islands, if needed.

@che_huai @threadreaderapp unroll please