This outcome is exactly what Keynes predicted. The Tories are monetarists. They don’t believe a government must spend so thru do the exact opposite of what’s required and the result is a long term structural hole in national finances that will take DECADES to fix
So, far from bring the party of sound financial management, the Tories are the party of slash and burn economics. Slash spending after the 2008/9 crash and the result is the economy shrank, tax receipts declined , so then they had to borrow and have not stoop since.
Before the US sub-prime triggered banking crises (yes, Tories tried to blame Lab for that as well), UK national debt was below £500 billion - so about 20% of what it is now. AFTER bailing the banks out it rose to £750 billion. All quite manageable and internationally
respected position. After the crash and interest rate collapse, economists were at pains to make the point that the correct response to a deeply contracted economy was a sustained fiscal stimulus ie a Keynesian response. Cameron did exactly the opposite. The Tories slashed
Inflation. In 🇩🇪 and 🇮🇹 it’s at 10%, but in 🇫🇷 and 🇪🇸 it’s at c. 6.8% (and slowing) vs our 10.8%. So hardly a case of we have less inflation the Europeans. The outlook for GDP growth for the UK is worse than all the G7 countries except for Russia.
This is the long term effect of austerity (shrunk the UK economy relative to where it could have been) and Brexit (4% hit to GDP). A developed economy is doing well with long term 2% GDP growth. Brexit is strangling the UK - and just about every economist has said that
We’re sick and tired of hearing from ‘small state’ dogmatists like Sinclair. The US government represents 46% of their economy and in the UK it’s 45%
Freeze state pensions and slash ‘non-frontline’ NHS and schools staff, said No 10’s economic adviser theguardian.com/politics/2022/…
In France It’s 55%, while Japan is about 16 % and Australia is at c 11%, and Germany 43%. So, there is no link between the size of the state and the success of a country. Instead, there is a link between societies in which large parts of the populace are demonised
for not being ‘successful’. Not everyone can be a doctor, lawyer or a VP in an MNC (which I was). The vast majority of folks go through life quietly with pretty ordinary jobs, but they are happy and fulfilled. That’s how society is structured. They are the foundation that
A chart is worth a thousand words. The UK bounced back in 2021 from the 2020 pandemic lockdown induced contraction which was the worst in the G7 and then settled at 3.7% in 2022 - part of that the ‘hangover’ boost from the 2021 bounce back.
However, the UK’s average growth over the same period is the lowest in the G7 bar Russia (not shown) and the outlook is indeed dire. With inflation running at 10% (not the worst it should be added), the low growth only adds more misery to an already difficult situation.
The average growth rate over the period under consideration is just 0.6%. This is a stagnating economy. #Brexit has cost the UK 4% of GDP or a cobtrzction of £10 billion a year. The pre-Brexit bilateral EU<>UK trade was 470 billion Euros and UK exports to the bloc €200 billion
For the Tory neolibs that look to America as a role model of small government, ‘government off the back of people’ and ‘individual freedom’ it’s interesting to note that that US govt share of GDP is 45.3% vs the UK’s 44.6%.
So, the US is more of a nanny state than the UK?
Then think about the fact the US has a privately funded healthcare system which runs at 18% of GDP vs the UK’s 10% and it has worse clinical outcomes than the nationalised UK system. Further, inequality and mortality in the US are the worst in the developed economies
Of course, we must point out America has chosen to spend its money on guns and the UK on butter to paraphrase the ‘guns and butter’ analogy used by economists. Nevertheless, what these figures show is that in advanced, wealthy economies, governments play an enormous role
Suella Braverman: ‘Britain has a benefits culture problem’. Under the Tories, benefit costs have ballooned from £135 billion to £212 billion while poverty has soared. What’s going on?
Answer: Britain has an in-work poverty problem made worse by Tory policies and #Brexit. Period
Braverman and her ERG colleagues believe in small government - so no social security, no publicly funded healthcare etc. Tories claim their economic management over the last 12 yrs has taken Britain to full employment - 96% of ppl are in employment.
However, if these figures are correct, why has benefits expenditure (despite real world cuts) increased and like for like tax receipts declined? The answer is the economy has stagnated, as expected under austerity, and then we’ve had #Brexit and the pandemic