There is an immense moral and ethical cowardice in academia and in think tanks. The level of pontification on nuclear war without asking the question what happens next is astounding. What happens when Ukraine is forced into a peace deal that cedes its territories? Some thoughts..
The threat of war is scary. Let's get that off the table. Could it happen, yes. Is there a potential for nuclear conflict, yes. But the threat of nuclear war does not go away with a forced peace deal. In fact the threat of nuclear war grows greater with a forced peace.
1. Russia would interpret a peace deal on the current borders as a victory. I.E. it forced NATO to back down. This would undermine the deterrent effect of NATO and create a very scary precedent both in Ukraine and beyond.
2. It would be a temporary solution. If we are to believe Russia's nuclear rhetoric we should also believe their Imperial rhetoric. They wish nothing less than the complete destruction of Ukraine and its people. They have demonstrated this in everything they have done.
They have kidnapped hundreds of thousands of children, raped, pillaged, destroyed infrastructure, and committed mass acts of violence. Their goal is genocide. And they have been pretty explicit about this. In the short run we could expect to see Pre-WW2 level purges in
occupied territories. Tens of thousands of forced deportations and mass killings, the closure and starvation of Ukraine from the Black Sea. Continued periodic missile strikes and bombings along a massive front line.
3. Within this temporary solution Europe would be faced with the burden of millions of Ukrainian refugees indefinitely. IDPs in Ukraine would be forced into ever smaller areas that have had infrastructure damage and an economy in ruins with no ability to use the Black Sea.
4. In the long run Russia will rearm and with its lesson learned that NATO will back down in the face of nuclear threats it will go after the remainder of Ukraine and likely Lithuania and the Baltics. It has made clear that it wants a land bridge to Kaliningrad.
5. The effects will not be limited to Europe. Russia will be emboldened across the Middle East even more than it already is. It will be emboldened in Africa and Latin America. Violence will spread and authoritarianism will harden. Global political stability will become much worse
6. China and Iran will likewise learn the lessons of the war. That Nuclear weapons and threats are powerful. And that the ability to play the game of chicken better than the west will lead to short term pain but long-term victory.
7. The use of energy and grain as weapons of the state will increase and deepen global instability, economic crises, and humanitarian concerns.
I have not touched on everything, but when people ask for the short term solution without explaining the long-term consequences be skeptical. We are at an inflection point in history. Now is the time to be firm. To call the bluff loudly. To take the steering wheel and throw
it out the window to demonstrate our resolve as a united NATO alliance. The short-term fears are real. The potential for violence is real. But Russia does not have escalation dominance. We should stop pretending that they do. The future of humanity rests on this.
It rests on standing firm in the face of brutality and oppression. It rests on demonstrating our resolve is stronger than theirs. Because if we do not, the long term consequences may be far worse. #StandFirm #StandWithUkraine
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
