Thread by @MassDara

A few days ago I wrote that a new volatile phase of the war is here. Today, Putin is implementing what partial mobilization really means. Mobilization is never just personnel — but control of state resources up to martial law. Prepare for more changes. (/1)

https://twitter.com/moscowtimes/status/1582721627921346560

This announcement declares martial law in four occupied Ukrainian regions. Suggests to me the mobilized forces will be used in part as occupation forces— *if* they manage to get front lines stable. *IF*, because Ukraine is engaging the lines. /2

Changes are also coming to many Russian regions. The language in the decree is the language of mobilization—resources, control of movements, making sure that local governments can take civilian resources to support the military , territorial defense, etc. /3

@The_Lookout_N has screenshots here. It is the language of state mobilization (/4)

https://twitter.com/the_lookout_n/status/1582709569360650240?s=46&t=3WwFPM3_E1HOwUYWRZj6xQ

Mobilization, martial law, in control of the economy often go hand-in-hand. The wording is careful- but they talk about getting resources and controlling movements. This is not martial law but it moves closer to it in parts of Russia. (/5)

In the Russian system, during mobilization, the local military district headquarters help control and direct over this process - working with governors and mayors. they control military forces too. (/6)

I was waiting for this announcement. Their system can’t mobilize this many people without mobilizing state resources too. I suspect that more special economic measures will be the next thing announced. The state needs more resources directed to the military. (/7)

I think the Kremlin is spacing out the announcements to not put too many overwhelming pieces of information out at one time. They could think this approach, or gradual introductions, will keep things stable at home. Or Stable-ish. (/8)

I view Surovikin’s speech yesterday in the same way- preparing Russians for news of a retreat from Kherson city and the west bank. And potential bad news. The position is increasingly untenable for Russian forces there (/9). cablefreetv.org/the-first-inte…

The “partial” in this “partial mobilization” is in reference to geography and number of impacted Russian regions. This is different from general mobilization. Ukraine is probably still considered a local /regional war combo in their planning.(/10)

More changes will probably come. I don’t think this 300,000 will be the last call either. maybe for a while until the first wave is spent or tired. Am I worried about where this is all going? Yes. (11/end)