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Oct 20 • 6 tweets • 5 min read
Have some good new stuff for everyone.

First, the always sharp @tbonier is joining our weekly @deepstateradio podcast today to talk about tends in the #EarlyVote.

His Target Early #EarlyVote tracker launched this am and has good news for Dems 👇1/

targetearly.targetsmart.com/g2022
@tbonier @deepstateradio Just posted the video of my conversation with "future former Republican" @BillKristol, a leader of the anti-MAGA movement inside the GOP.

We covered a lot of important ground in our discussion. Hope you can watch. 2/

ndn.org/conversation-b…
NDN has released a comprehensive new presentation on the Hispanic vote. It's a look back at the history of the battle over the Hispanic vote, and offers some thoughts on where we are today.

Bottom line - it's a remarkable Dem success story. 3/

ndn.org/democrats-and-…
On Friday 1pm ET will be doing an updating showing of our "With Democrats Things Get Better" presentation.

If you haven't seen it do join us. It's an uplifting, data-filled look at US politics over past 30+ years. Great way to go into the weekend! 4/
ndn.org/WithDemocrats
The noted economist @robshapiro just dropped a really helpful new essay in @Monthly. It's full of good talking points for canvassing, social media engagement, the battle.

We have a strong econ track record and need to sell it. 5/

washingtonmonthly.com/2022/10/20/cmo…
@robshapiro @monthly For more on this basic contrast

Dems = growth, jobs, lower deficits, success
Rs = recessions, higher deficits, decline

See this thread 👇 6/

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Simon Rosenberg Profile picture
Oct 20
Using TargetEarly here's what we know so far about the #EarlyVote: turnout is up over 2018, and the electorate is more Dem than either 2018 or 2020.

2018: 44% Dem
2020: 54.5% Dem
2022: 55.7% Dem

We are off to a good start. Keep working hard everyone. Fired up, ready to go!
GA #EarlyVote continues to keep pace with 2020. Incredible. So encouraging.

People are fired up, ready to go!

Have you voted early? If you can, please do so today.
It helps our elections run better, increases Dem turnout.

Remember, this is what the largest sample likely voter poll reported this week about Dem enthusiasm - it's high and rising!

Read 4 tweets
Simon Rosenberg Profile picture
Oct 19
Wed morning election update:
- majority of tracks have D leads, no movement to Rs (see below):
- Biden approval up 9-10 pts
- D candidates w/big cash advantage
- Another big #EarlyVote day in GA
- R crossing over to support Ds across US

It's a close election - keep working hard!
Here's @JoyAnnReid and I talking about this close, competitive election on @MSNBC last night.

Was a good conversation. Check it out.

Media friends,

if you suggest that higher gas prices are benefiting Republicans, it is incumbent upon you to complete the thought - this will once again put the GOP leadership in debt to hostile foreign powers, one of which is committing genocide on European soil.

Thank you.
Read 9 tweets
Simon Rosenberg Profile picture
Oct 18
Some Tuesday election updates.

Let's begin with an encouraging, record setting 1st day #earlyvote in GA. Just jawdropping turnout, intensity. 1/

Most governors are popular. Not an anti-incumbent, throw the bums out election. 2/

morningconsult.com/2022/10/11/whi…
Dem House and Senate candidate fundraising advantage a big deal, could be the difference in the home stretch.

Remember candidates get lower rates than outside groups - means you get more for your dollar. Ds likely to close w/more ads than Rs. 3/

Read 13 tweets
Simon Rosenberg Profile picture
Oct 17
Been talking to reporters about politics for 30 years. Some reminders about the GOP pols spinning the election:

- they lost the last 2 elections by 6.5 pts
- many of their chosen primary candidates lost
- their candidates are being outraised by Ds
- they blew 2 House specials
- almost every prediction about they made about this "red wave" year has been wrong, and their candidates are underperforming across US
- they don't understand the abortion issue
- their party has been taken over by extremists
- their foundational project is lying about elections
In other words their simply isn't any reason to believe anything they are telling you about the election.

Entire party lives everyday in a land of MAGA make believe.

Media folks need to work a little harder.
Read 6 tweets
Simon Rosenberg Profile picture
Oct 15
After three kids and all sorts of travel/recreational sports experience it has become my firm belief that states need to start regulating youth sports, and work to cut down on the psychological and physical abuse that is so common and the corruption/graft. washingtonpost.com/sports/2022/10…
This new Yates report should kick off a national conversation on how to improve youth sports of all kinds, particularly for women.

We need to come up with a “lite” regulatory model that creates a higher floor and protects our kids.

theguardian.com/football/2022/…
Things my own family has seen:

- Exec of travel program stealing money, fall season collapsing

- drunk/hungover coach putting injured 10 year olds back into a game

- lack of field maintenance causing serious injury

- promised travel teams disappearing after season begins
Read 8 tweets
Simon Rosenberg Profile picture
Oct 14
Dems up 63-36 (+27) with Hispanics in this @washingtonpost poll. This is the best Hispanic poll so far this year for Dems.

The others:
NBC/Telemundo +21
NYT +24
Pew +25

In 2020 Pew had Dems +21 w/Hispanics, Catalist +28. So here Dems at/above 2020 numbers. 1/
This Ds at/above 2020 w/Hispanics tracks what we're seeing in states with heavily Hispanic populations (outside FL).

In 2022 statewide races Dems at/above recent elections in AZ, CA, CO, NV, TX. NM gov may not match 2018 but still way ahead. 2/

In recent years Rs have suffered significant erosion in heavily Mexican-American AZ/CA/CO/NM/NV/TX.

If they can't keep making gains w/Hispanics here they will keep falling further behind as population grows.

These margins are huge problem for Rs here. 3/
Read 5 tweets

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