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Vitaly

@M0nstas

Aug 1

July in two pictures

Average 32280 IvanZ, lowest-ever APC losses 140, second-lowest tank losses 85.
Declining vehicle losses reflect the changes on the battlefield.

Vehicles are no longer shaping the battlefield - drones are.

Artillery is still used in high numbers, as the majority of cannons are damaged but can eventually be repaired. UAV losses reflect further production scaling, and missiles are used as usual, seems like russia is capped in its production.

Read 4 tweets

Vitaly

@M0nstas

Jul 4

#Map Velykyi Burluk

The Velykyi Burluk area sits on the watershed between the Siverskyi Donets and Oskil rivers. Rugged terrain and sparse roads define the region, with strategic hilltop routes bypassing small settlements.

Russians have captured Milove, a narrow stretch along the border. This secures key ravines and threatens Ambarne, potentially opening a route into the next valley with multiple operational options.

The most promising move is uniting the Oskil foothold along the Verkhmia Dvurichkova River. The area isn’t great for vehicles, but drones can control it. That alone could force a Ukrainian "withdrawal".

Read 8 tweets

Vitaly

@M0nstas

Jul 1

June in two

All the categories except UAVs are on decline.
Armor losses on the all time low level, vehicle losses high but 800 less than in April.

Also, significant part of the losses are recoverable.
Russians should be able to accumulate armor for the future operations.

Artillery number decreasing, MLRS remain unchanged despite the decreased number of reported barrages.

UAV broke another record, mostly by Shaheds scaling.

Read 5 tweets

Vitaly

@M0nstas

Jun 24

Pokrovsk Sector Analysis
RU forces hold dominant terrain across the Vovcha basin. The axis toward Filia is collapsing incrementally. However, AFU retains positional control on the elevated northern bank - limiting RU freedom of maneuver in the valley. /1

A key Russian option is to secure the Zirka–Yalta triangle and flood it with drone operators. With stable ammo supply, this zone could influence the entire sector. It is relatively secure from AFU counterattacks, allowing sustained drone operations. /2

The Vovcha’s meandering course compounds AFU movement constraints. With Vesele’s defensive belt compromised, the southern bank becomes indefensible over time. AFU likely to conduct phased withdrawal to preserve force integrity. /3

Read 9 tweets

Vitaly

@M0nstas

Jun 14

The war is evolving into a series of endless pockets. Russia tested its drone-oriented strategy in Sudzha and is now scaling it across the entire front in the shadow of the drone "swarm".
1/

Ukraine relies on fortified strongholds. But the joints between these defensive zones create weak noman points. Russia identifies and exploits these seams with systematic uneven pressure.
2/

By applying steady pressure across the entire line, Russia prevents Ukraine from executing effective countermeasures, one way missions insures that the point will be secured. This allows incremental gains on the flanks and creates multiple protrusions - the “claws.”
3/

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Vitaly

@M0nstas

Apr 6

Pokrovsk is the most data-rich direction, as GSUA publishes detailed reports about enemy activities in the area.
Every evening, GSUA publishes attacks and losses, showing 5-8 casualties per attack, with a noticeable correlation.

The ratio of casualties to attacks started to change after March 20, as summertime began to affect the morning and evening reporting of data.
A lot of attacks have been occurring at dusk, that will diverge the data sets.

What about the comparison of absolute numbers?

Almost every third attack happens in Pokrovsk,
but only 20% of Ivans are reported from that direction, making it seem cost-effective.
That doesn’t match the visual evidence.

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