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Vitaly

@M0nstas

Jun 16, 2023

#Thoughts
🇷🇺 "Lost" fortification section on the Volnovakha front.

There must be at least two lines.
Majority of 🇷🇺 fortifications are build on the hill behind the water stream and the link between those valleys.
For some reason second line is missing on the Vremiivskiy lendge.

Without control of Vuhledar there was no chance to build anything along Kashlahach river.
The ledge made the area too deep to justify the construction 25km away from the front.
Incomplete uneven fronts complicates and hight expectations postponed the decision, So non were build.

@Nrg8000

While @Nrg8000 map shows a continuous lines of fortifications.
@AndrewPerpetua use dots in the data representation.

Read 4 tweets

Vitaly

@M0nstas

Jun 16, 2023

https://twitter.com/M0nstas/status/1667135172431556613

#Map #Volnovakha
Reports about 🇺🇦 activities near Vuhledar opens another window of opportunity at Volnovakha.

The city is extremely important on that flank and for Mariupol liberation, there are no options to avoid the fight before any further movement.

https://twitter.com/M0nstas/status/1667135172431556613

Volnovakha is a watershed, all the rivers goes there so its a natural direction for the offense.
Defense is defined by
a1. main fortifications protected by the streams and lowlands
a2. the forest that protects the city from the North.
a3. 20km deep buffer.

In order to break the city 🇺🇦 should prepare the battlefield for it.
Important task is to cut of H20, but T0512 would be out of reach.
City is surrounded by the villages it would be a hard task to get over it.

Pavlivka - Petrivske - Krasna Poliana road is the starting point.

Read 5 tweets

Vitaly

@M0nstas

Jun 9, 2023

@Nrg8000

#Map fortifications and roads
Probably under impression after previous 🇺🇦 operations 🇷🇺 decided to concentrate their efforts on the roads, ignoring underdeveloped direction of Azov Upland.

@Nrg8000 map

https://twitter.com/M0nstas/status/1578167928994025472

@Nrg8000

@Nrg8000 Logic of 🇷🇺 fortifications is next
1. Protect hubs (crossroads and storages)
2. Protect the elevation (force the enemy to go always uphill)
3. Protect the Black Sea Lowland access (fast track)

The "welcome" eastern section requires too much efforts from the attacking side and will rely on maneuver defense.
The major obstacle is the infrastructure. Supply lines should stretch along the dirt roads and the closes exit in Bilmak is fortified.

Read 4 tweets

Vitaly

@M0nstas

Jun 7, 2023

Flooded areas of Kherson, Hola Prystan and Krynky.

Comparing to the topographic map.

twitter.com/i/web/status/1…

Kherson main indicator is the roundabout in Korabel district.
Topography is not precise and show difference in 7-9m
Bohoroducka street is at 11m level

both are similarly flooded.

That show that elevation map isn't accurate for this but still useful.
https://t.co/TIpXbvRyWy twitter.com/i/web/status/1…

Hola Prystan is another example of misleading elevation, the dry zone is 2 meters lower than a flooded zone in the center of the town

Read 4 tweets

Vitaly

@M0nstas

May 25, 2023

Another 20 destroyed artillery units reported.
For some reason no talks about the reported artillery position strikes.

The first such event was reported at Jan 11, the next in Jan 27, next Mar 7, it has never been a consistent event.
Everything has changed in May.

Other distinct categories in the reports are
S-300 - were reported several times
MLRS - there were only 3 cases, all in April
EW - 13 were hit in May 19,20 and reported constantly since April.

EW is a Special equipment category and it has spiked in March.

Artillery is the only combat component where 🇺🇦 has some advantage over 🇷🇺.
When 🇷🇺 has a lot of stuff and can execute firewall strategy, 🇺🇦 can simply outshoot the enemy limiting their capabilities.
In order to overcome that 🇷🇺 will rely on aviation.

F16 would be handy.

Read 4 tweets