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Oct 22 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
Missiles, blasts & sirens
Ukraine mornings routine
All 5 missiles flying to Kyiv were intercepted.
Strikes in Kropyvnitskyi and Golovanskyi rayon.
This and neighboring Umanskyi rayon are out of power.
2 strikes of energy facilities in Odessa region.
Emergency services are doing their best to repair the grid.
Power infrastructure was hit it Rivne
Missile strikes on energy infrastructure in Volyn region.
Khmelnitskyi the same. Missile strikes of energy infrastructure.
Just want to remind that a permanent member of UN security council with veto power is a terrorist,
because #RussiaIsATerrorristState
18 missiles were intercepted

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More from @M0nstas

Vitaly Profile picture
Oct 21
For a long time 🇷🇺 is using their Long-range SAM Systems to hit ground targets in MLRS mode.

To answer this question we should look at 🇷🇺 MLRS: Smerch (300mm), Uragan (220mm), Grad (122mm).
Grad has 20km range, no HE warhead
Uragan has 35km range with 90kg warhead, dum rockets
Smerch is the only capable MLRS.
Range varies from 70 to 120km for a 243 kg warhead.
9M55F - 70km, HE-Fragmentation 258kg
9M528 - 90km, HE-Fragmentation
9M530 - 90km, EPW
9M542 - 120km guided, HE-Fragmentation 150kg

🇷🇺 has 100 of Smerch's.
On other Hand 🇷🇺 already owns 1000+ Long-range SAM systems S-300/400/500
That are capable to compensate the lack of MLRS

Depending of missile type they are capable to deliver 130kg warhead to 150km.
Command and TVM guided missiles can be used.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Track-via…
Read 5 tweets
Vitaly Profile picture
Oct 20
Spooky Kherson flooding map - delusional masterpiece

Let's take a look why.
Elevation map shows with satellite map shows that most of the flooding would happen in a protected green area.
With some shoreline homes can be slightly touched.

That can happen only with whole dam would be blown apart. ImageImageImage
Dam in numbers:
Max water level is 25m
Normal level - 16m
Min level - 12.7m

Water level cant drop below 12.7m, with gates fully gone it would be 3.3m wave, if we are on 16m level.

Based on recent reports the level should be lower than normal. Image
Read 6 tweets
Vitaly Profile picture
Oct 20
Belarusian invasion of Ukraine.
Where can they go if not on Kyiv?

North of Ukraine is not suitable for the invasion, but there are some directions that can be used by the enemy.
Despite the long border there aren’t many crossings and not all of them can be used for the invasion. Image
Rivers would be a major obstacle on the way and Prypiat is the biggest one.
It starts near the Polish border and runs over Ukraine and crosses the Belarusian border near Pinsk, 30 km east of Makhro village.
The river has a wide floodplain that makes it hard to succeed. Image
Dnipro-Bug-Kanal astonishing engineering construction runs from Pinsk to Brest 10-30km away along the Ukrainian border, any artificial constructions are in reach for AFU and local militia.
Any forces in between Prypiat and Kanal would be decimated. ImageImage
Read 9 tweets
Vitaly Profile picture
Oct 18
🇷🇺 UAV losses has spiked
majority of those losses are Kamikaze-drones.

80-90% were intercepted, with a huge numbers in use even the small fraction can be enough to make the some harm to civilian infrastructure.

with 40 drones a day 2400 of them can last for 2 months.
With estimated cost of $20K per each drone it could become a huge threat for 🇺🇦 defense, just for $50M 🇷🇺can terrorize civilians.

Each drone can lead to mass destruction and needs to be intercepted.
Missile cost ~$300K that is unsustainable in a long run

english.elpais.com/international/…
Ukraine needs light self-propelled anti-aircraft gun systems.

As Shaheds flights relatively low with non-existent protection they can be reached even with simple hand gun.

Machine gun mounted on top of pickup could be enough to protect the sky from those drones.
Read 6 tweets
Vitaly Profile picture
Oct 17
Bakhmut - 2 month of 🇷🇺 crawling attack.
🇺🇦 doing their best defending the city area.
The front is slowly changing and with additional cannon fodder 🇷🇺 is desperate to capture Bakhmut to free up the resources.
At the same time 🇺🇦 is trying to break the Northern claw of the front. ImageImageImage
Bakhmut is the only successful "advancement" of 🇷🇺 army in last months and they have no way back.
Any withdrawal will end in Luhansk region behind the "Pasicnik line".
At the same time consistent pressure needs to be provided to push through 🇺🇦 defense for 2 month straight. Image
According war science units needs to be rotated every 2-3 weeks to maintain productivity. On Bakhmut front this rotation could be achieved by utilization of previous forces. There were not a single day without active fights in that area, so no major rotation were made.
Read 7 tweets
Vitaly Profile picture
Oct 16
Would Pu-tin convince Lu-ka to invade Ukraine?

Short answer - No.

The area hasn't changed since 24th Feb.
There are 3 roads over the forest, over the desolate swampy area, 100 km apart. With 20km of the forest on their way it would be mostly impossible to move.
Maybe Belarus can provide a lot of manpower?
By 1 of March 2016, there were
14.5K Officers, 7K Sergeants and 25.5K Soldiers
There were also 3.5K cadets.
The number matches 🇷🇺 forces at March, but 🇺🇦 should be better prepared.
No one would pass the forest.
Equipment of AFRB:
517 T-72B;
20 T-72B3;

132 BRM-1;
13+ Cayman BRDM;

932 BMP-2;
58 MT-LB;

125 2S1 Gvozdika;
125 2S3 Akatsiya;
71 2S5;
12 2S19 Msta-S;
72 2A65 Msta-B;
128 BM-21 Grad;
36 9P140 Uragan;
MOR 120mm 14 2S12
hostnezt.com/cssfiles/curre…
Read 4 tweets

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