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Kris Sidial Profile picture
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Oct 22 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
#UFC280 is going to be insane.

I’m just curious to see what the poll results are for all the fight fans on here.
1) I think Islam’s pressure passing is too much for Charles to handle…. Lot of that open guard butterfly play usually doesn’t work against someone who is ultra tight with their pressure passing
2) O’mally’s reach ends up being the the difference maker. Yan is a warrior and super tough mentally but stylistically I think the reach just may be too much.
3) Dariush is one of the most underrated fighters around. I think his BJJ ends up making the difference here. Hopefully the surgery bounce back is solid.
4) Sterling’s grappling ends up being the difference maker here. I had the pleasure of actually training with those guys from Serra’s camp on Long Island & it’s underrated how good the grappling is. They pump out high level grapplers like a factory.

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More from @Ksidiii

Kris Sidial Profile picture
Sep 29
So here’s a hot take for you guys. I recently did this podcast episode. I enjoyed the discussion with the host and thought it was cool. However, when you have an RIA business and a fund vehicle there is a process where everything needs to pass through compliance.
If you come off as marketing a fund you can get in trouble with regulators. I explain this to every podcast host before jumping on. I’m happy to talk about volatility but when you sit there and turn the nature of the discussion into something specific on a fund it becomes a 🚩.
Anyways, our compliance team flagged this and asked us to redo the podcast as the host was formalizing statements such as “this is how you should pitch me” and other references that specifically focused on our fund.
Read 9 tweets
Kris Sidial Profile picture
Sep 1
I come from a low income housing area, so a lot of my friends and family members are still located in that community.

It is only getting harder for them to live in NY. Even with governmental support, some don’t have an extra $50 to spare on a week by week basis.
Firsthand I saw how 08 destroyed families that were already struggling…. I just can’t imagine anymore monetary constraint for the lower class right now. Whether that’s inflation continuing, or a potential recession.
Cov-19 was rough and although on paper it looked like the government was supporting the lower class, there were a lot of people that got set back that never recovered and are currently in a big deficit.
Read 6 tweets
Kris Sidial Profile picture
Aug 10
I think the market is a bit overly giddy on this CPI number and it’s probably unlikely that the fed will start to ease up and take a less hawkish stance.

The increase in risk assets somewhat gives the fed the green light to be able to move more swiftly with a hawkish tone.
Inflation is one of those things that is difficult to control when it’s out the bag (Historically). I think the Fed understands this and if they have the opportunity to tame it, while not completely obliterating risk assets, it seems like a perfect scenario.
To me, it seems strange that others are looking to price in a continued slight pivot to a dovish stance on a slight CPI beat.

Let’s not forget, a CPI print of 8.5% is not “good”, this is still on the higher end of numbers from the 70’s.
Read 4 tweets
Kris Sidial Profile picture
Jul 28
In the tail risk space you see this a LOT!

This is generally what I try to emphasize that potential clients avoid.

Avoid the funds that have ways of "shorting a concave payout, to fund a convex payout".

There is no alpha in that when done in a price insensitive manner.
So what you will see is a fund shorting a straddle and using the premium to fund way out the money puts. It sounds good until you land in the middle and lose both ways from skew not picking up.
Can this work at times, yes. But u need to have some understanding or forecast of how the term structure is moving.

Selling straddles to fund way out the money puts is not a tail risk hedge, it is a structure that can work depending on how vols move. U cant do this every month.
Read 7 tweets
Kris Sidial Profile picture
Jul 23
Working with our juniors, I get to see the emotional tendencies of newer traders around strategies and their development.
It’s important to understand that where you are in the time ensemble matters a lot. U can have a great strategy and give up on it because it’s not working over a small period of time.

I’m not a fan of the strategies that you cannot explain. I understand there are some that
are inexplainable & do well (blackbox stuff). However, it becomes a challenge to identify when the alpha is decaying if you don’t know what it is you are looking for.

You can be here in the P&L curve to start off the strategy, and give up on it due to the small sample of time.
Read 8 tweets
Kris Sidial Profile picture
Jul 20
Junior today was inquiring about a relative value vol trade between two underlyings… I stressed the point of making sure you are tenor neutral when evaluating comparable floating strike.

Ex:

KO 1M 90%MNY trading at 23 vol
PEP 1M 90%MNY trading at 40 vol

(Cont)
As much as I hate these type of trades, if you are going to put them on, you have to make sure your dollar Vega is also neutral. If you get that wrong, the entire trade is screwed up.

I wrote a thread a while back on dollar delta and how some portfolios are viewed incorrectly.
Ex:

Long 1 ATM $SPY put (50delta)
Long 1 ATM $F call (50delta)

You are NOT delta neutral.

One stock is trading at $394
One stock is trading at $12

Your portfolio impact will be more sensitive to the larger stock because you are carrying more dollar delta.
Read 8 tweets

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