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Alastair Thompson Profile picture
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Oct 22 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
If this is an eyewall replacement cycle we can see here with #Roslyn, then it barely missed a beat. Similar to the extremely rapid strengthening #Ian experienced after crossing Western Cuba.
Visual floater image of roughly the same period.
And in black and white - high resolution.
#Roslyn Track and intensity guidance. While the storm is expected to weaken rapidly. It still takes it 48 hours to return to being a Tropical Storm - by which time it will be in Texas after crossing several mountain ranges.
And a 150 hour IWVT forecast. Roslyn's remnants are forecast to move very rapidly north after joining a Pacific atmospheric river complex near the Mexico/US border.
[Continuing coverage]

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More from @althecat

Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Oct 23
Avoiding/preventing & nipping a TPLF insurgency in the bud quickly - rather than encouraging it (as last time) is the issue IC players incl. @Oolusegun_obj Uhuru Kenyatta @AntonioGutteres @SecBlinken @mikehammer @AsstSecStateAF & @HannaTetteh
ought to now be focussed on. THREAD
@Oolusegun_obj @AntonioGutteres @SecBlinken @mikehammer @AsstSecStateAF @HannaTetteh Due to the pace of war over & the absurd amount of public international support/sympathy being advanced towards TPLF's ongoing secessionist war, the risk that TPLF may already be pivoting towards this tactic is clear, & covered here by @sajid_nadeem78
This latest video by TPLF Central Cmtte member and @WHO DG @DrTedros echoing a phrase used by the UNSG @antonioguterres is exactly the sort of thing that needs to be avoided, as it emboldens the TPLF to continue their lethal struggle.
Read 37 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Oct 23
Mexico's West coast is preparing for the landfall of Major #HurricaneRoslyn in coming hours. A Code Red maximum warning has been issued in Puerto Vallarta a tourist resort town south of the landfall location of the center of the hurricane. vallartadaily.com/civil-protecti… ImageImage
The forecast path of the hurricane is similar in relation to the coast line to that of #HurricaneIan, and #Roslyn is of simlar strength.

#Roslyn will cause significant storm surge to its East as it travels up the coast, blowing water ashore along a 462km stretch of coastline. Image
Puerto Vallarta is not the only coastal town in its path and, not the most vulnerable. These three towns are closer to the landfall point which is over a low lying flood plain. ImageImageImage
Read 6 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Oct 22
It looks like the Bay of Bengal's #Invest92b is at least a tropical storm. Its definitely spinning and has become quite well organised.
That looks to me like a spinning eye, for night time visual satellite imagery, that is pretty rare. #92b Bay of Bengal storm.
In the context of a completely saturated Bay of Bengal, and with little room to move the capacity of #92b to strengthen wind wise may be limited, but its room to get very large and wet is considerable.
Read 4 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Oct 22
A thunderous riposte to IC players who continue to cling to the hope of somehow resurrecting the TPLF in planned peace talks in South Africa on Monday, whilst their remaining military force prepares for a final stand at historic Adwa.

counterpunch.org/2022/10/21/eth…
The protests today across Ethiopia and around the world have hopefully been noticed by the IC, which has steadfastly remained supportive or silent on the TPLF’s repeated aggressions and refusals to engage in peace efforts since May, culminating in the start of a new war on 24/8.
Ethiopia’s peoples at home and abroad have made it clear that they want peace, but not at the cost of continuing to have to co-exist with an armed terrorist group using the hashtags #DisarmTPF and #TPLFMustGo in recent weeks.
Read 11 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Oct 22
Breaking news THREAD of english @youtube videos from @sajid_nadeem78’s “My Views on News” channel, starting Friday night following failed UNSC Meeting. It has been a very busy 36 hours.

Adwa | Korem | UNSC meeting on Ethiopia fails | Massive protests 1/4
Journalist @sajid_nadeem78 has been ceaselessly following developments in the Ethiopian war for as long as I can remember back in early 2021.

His 1st video today:

Update from Shire | New party to Ethiopia-Tigray talks | Huge protests 2/4
Previous video has 2 interesting stories out of the US, AAA seeking to be a party to talks + Temporary Protected Status being granted to Ethiopians in the US. Allowing them to stay. 3/4

Ethiopian & Eritrean armies enter Tigray's historic city of Aksum
Read 6 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Oct 22
This from Bisrat Lemessa Kabeta @BisratLKabeta is superb. It needs maximum exposure over the weekend before Monday's Peace Talks - or whatever else happens.

TPLF’s Exit: A Crucial Step towards a Post-Conflict Ethiopia Capable of Sustaining Peace. link.medium.com/aNa6GB1iiub
@BisratLKabeta The article contains a very clear and succinct response to the question: "Should TPLF be allowed to remain in some role in Tigray" to which the answer is a resounding NO!

Unfortunately, the TPLFs ask of Western Powers going into the talks in South Africa is exactly this.
@BisratLKabeta It is clear that any outcome which provided for a continued role for TPLF in the governance of Tigray and/or Ethiopia would be unacceptable to the people of Ethiopia, to the Govt. and in time most probably also to the people of Tigray.
Read 4 tweets

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