(I'm not putting numbers because I don't feel like it)
Russia is doing their little border skirmishing near Ternova in Kharkiv oblast.
Ukraine doesn't seem to care about the bridgehead they established north of Kupyansk, they are attacking east from Kupyansk instead.
Ukraine is applying pressure toward Svatove in several areas, and moving toward the Svatove-Kreminna highway again.
Russia is attacking toward Torske near Lyman. They are also attacking near Bilohorivka, and Zolotarivka near Siversk. These latter two attacks show Ukraine's slow but steady advance toward Lysychansk.
Russia is still attacking Soledar and Bakhmutske, without success.
In Bakhmut, Ukraine counter attacked down Patrisa Lumumby street and reportedly control all the way to the E40 highway. This was all gray area before.
South of Bakhmut, Russia is still attacking Ivanhrad, Odradivka, and Ozarianivka. However this situation could change very soon.
Russia is attacking north of Avdiivka toward Novokalynove and south of Avdiivka toward Pervomaiske. No notable changes.
Russia still attacking the Marinka, Pobjeda, and Novomykhailivka areas. They've attacked these areas pretty much every day for months.
Ukraine is launching lots of small probing attacks south from Hulyaipole and Orikhove.
In Kherson, the Ukrainian MOD claim Russia has abandoned the defensive strongholds of Charivne and Chkalove.
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I see several things happening in Ukraine right now:
1: Ukraine has pivoted to a drone based defense. Most of the gains you see Russia making right now are coming as a result of one of two things. A: Inferior Ukrainian drone units or B: Overwhelming Numerical Superiority.
When I say an inferior drone unit, I do not mean the pilots are bad, or even necessarily that their construction is bad. It could be as simple as not having access to enough drones, or not having enough pilots. I simply mean the unit isn’t strong enough for the task.
Where we see the strongest drone units, we see Russia struggling to advance, Usually only advancing with extreme numerical superiority and enormous casualties.
First, the total losses by category. You see significantly more losses for Russia than for Ukraine. This is the first month where Rubicon played a significant part of the Ukrainian losses.
Roughly 17% of Ukraine's losses in the month of February were from Rubicon (328 out of 1965). Primarily in Kursk.
Here you can see Tank, Infantry Fighting Vehicle, Armored Personnel Carrier, and MRAP losses by day through the month. Note that Russia uses few MRAPs.
While Trump’s team spreads defeatism and tries to blackmail Ukraine into surrender, Ukrainian soldiers on the battlefield remain unimpressed by the proclamations coming out of Washington Oblast.
Their actions speak louder than words.
In recent days, Ukraine has:
Recaptured Kotlyne
Liberated Pischane
Pushed into Shevchenko
These gains prove two critical points.
🔹 First: Ukraine still has the ability to seize the initiative.
Despite immense challenges, its military can concentrate forces, execute counterattacks, and maintain operational momentum—suggesting it retains significant reserves.
If the West falters, Ukraine can continue fighting until Russia collapses. Slowly trading land against Russian offensive potentials.
If the West finds its backbone, Ukraine can decisively defeat Russia and end the war on just terms.
Europe could have invested 1-2 hundred billion dollars over the past 3 years, but instead they will have to invest 3-5 trillion over the next 20. I’ve talked about this many times in the past. The politicians made very unwise decisions because they were afraid.
Should have gone 100% all in on making Ukraine win from day 1. Full on everything. It would have fixed every problem. Countries still aren’t even doing this. Every single day you delay will cost you 100 or 1000 times more over the next few years.
You thought it cost too much to squeeze 20-30 billion dollars into your budget for 5 years. Imagine having to fit in 500 billion.
There is absolutely no reason for Ukraine to negotiate with Russia, at all, for any reason, in the year 2025. Any negotiations should start in mid 2026, when the Russian economy has imploded, their deficits are blasting off to the moon, and Russia can no longer fight.
Every country should be looking at the situation like this: we only have to get ukraine through the next 12-18 months. We need to throw in the money, weapons, and ammo available now to make this happen. This is not a forever war. There is 1 year left. We are 75% done.
Russia will have absolutely no ability to wage war in the year 2027. Zero ability. Bringing the war into 2027 should be the threat to Russia. If we supply Ukraine through to that time period, Russia risks absolute implosion.