Neil Thomas 牛犇 Profile picture
Oct 23, 2022 8 tweets 3 min read Read on X
Who are China's new leaders? The CCP just announced its new Politburo Standing Committee

The result: a clean sweep for Xi allies and a consolidation of power unseen since the Mao era

1. Xi Jinping
2. Li Qiang
3. Zhao Leji
4. Wang Huning
5. Cai Qi
6. Ding Xuexiang
7. Li Xi
(1/)
2. Li Qiang (63) likely new Premier of State Council

Li was Xi's top secretary when Xi was Zhejiang Party Secretary in the mid-2000s

Surprise as Premier. Li first Premier since 1976 not promoted from Vice Premier. He is inexperienced at national governance. Not good?
3. Zhao Leji (65) likely next Chairman of National People's Congress, in charge of legislating (Xi priority)

Zhao seems close w/Xi thru their fathers being revolutionary comrades from Shaanxi

Stays on PBSC but moved up from CCDI Secretary (no one serves more than 5yrs there)
4. Wang Huning (67) likely next Chairman of Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (United Front)

Wang worked for Jiang Zemin & Hu Jintao but is key architect of XJP Thought

Stays on PBSC, moved up from heading CCP Secretariat, maybe he also stays ideology czar?
5. Cai Qi (67 in Dec) is next First Secretary of CCP Central Secretariat (influential role running party business)

Cai worked under Xi in Fujian (closely) and Zhejiang

Slightly surprising viz other Xi allies. Not widely tipped & first Beijing PS promoted to PSC since 2002
6. Ding Xuexiang (60) likely next Executive Vice Premier of State Council

Ding is Xi's chief-of-staff and was his top secretary when Xi was Shanghai PS in 2007

Expected, but surprising not to party but less-qualified-for state role, perhaps to avoid appearance he is successor?
7. Li Xi (66) is new Secretary of the CCP Central Commission for Discipline Inspection (anti-corruption & internal discipline)

Knows Xi from working for close family friend earlier in career

Li ranked 7th but CCDI role was previously 6th, maybe due to Ding's closeness to Xi?
Thoughts:

Xi's PSC broke experience norms but not age norms (except for Xi). What about 2027?

There is only a Xi faction. Maybe competition emerges b/w sub-factions?

The big question now is how long can Xi's dominance last? This PSC helps Xi's agenda but costs may mount

(8/)

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More from @neilthomas123

Oct 28
Everyone talks about Cai Qi. Don't forget Wang Huning.

Xi Jinping just made extra space for Wang on the drafting team for his five-year plan proposals

Wang is China's most powerful United Front boss since Deng Xiaoping left the role in 1983

Could stay past retirement age? 1/ Image
This table shows the evolution of drafting teams for plenums about five-year plans

Wang Huning is the first CPPCC Chairman (United Front boss) on such a team

He was also the first CCP Secretariat Head involved when he held that role in 2020

Becoming a constant presence.. 2/ Image
Similar thing happened at the Third Plenum last July, which decided structural reforms for 2029

Per past practice, Xi led the drafting team, with the CCP Secretariat Head (Cai Qi) and Executive Vice Premier (Ding Xuexiang) as deputies

But he added a deputy: Wang Huning.. 3/
Read 6 tweets
Oct 23
China's Fourth Plenum ends:

1. Super-low attendance suggests record purge of Central Committee

2. Near-record discipline of 10 members & 4 alternates

3. Xi affirms PLA purges by promoting discipline boss Zhang Shengmin to replace He Weidong as CMC Vice-Chair

Thoughts..

1/ Image
Communique suggests huge purge of Central Committee members beyond current rumors

Attendance was only 168/205 members and 147/171 alternates for a total of 315/376 (84%)

I believe that's a record low in the post-Mao era

"Empty chairs at empty tables" (h/t @shuizaiping2)

2/ Image
The Central Committee confirmed the expulsion of 10 members and 4 alternates

These were mostly pre-announced by the Politburo or disciplinary organs—e.g., He Weidong, Miao Hua

Almost as many disciplinary actions as the 2017 Seventh Plenum, but a new record for expulsions

3/ Image
Read 8 tweets
Oct 17
Big update! China just confirmed it has fired number-two general He Weidong

9 generals, inc 8 Central Committee members, expelled from the CCP

1 Politburo vacancy, 3 Central Military Commission vacancies, 11 CC vacancies

Will Xi fill them at the Fourth Plenum next week?

1/ Image
Xi may leave the Politburo and CMC depleted

No one replaced Sun Zhengcai when he was purged from the Politburo in 2017

And Xi has repeatedly declined to promote Li Shangfu's successor Dong Jun to the CMC

Absences make it easier for him to dominate and help punish the PLA

2/ Image
Still, He Weidong was the first uniformed CMC vice chair purged since the 1960s

Xi may be fine with ally Zhang Youxia as sole vice chair. Or he may want balance🤷‍♂️

But Miao Hua handled PLA loyalty, a Xi priority. @jonczin suggests some possible replacements for him:

3/ Image
Read 5 tweets
Oct 15
Who has Xi purged from the CCP Central Committee?

Attendance at next week's Fourth Plenum will reveal the extent of his recent "purge surge"

If all rumors are true, only 168/205 members (82%) and 159/171 alternates (93%) will be there

And only 17/44 of PLA members (39%)!

1/ Image
Would be the sparsest plenum in recent memory

Main cause is spate of disappearances and disciplinary campaigns in the People's Liberation Army

Closest comparison I can find is the 2017 Seventh Plenum at the end of Xi's first-term crackdown (191 members and 145 alternates)

2/ Image
This year could be big drop from the 199/205 members and 165/171 alternates at the Third Plenum last July

Illness and travel explain some absences; but political trouble explains more

Some "missing" cadres may resurface, but maximum attendance will be 193/205 and 165/171

3/ Image
Read 10 tweets
Sep 25
"As Xi [Jinping] steps back, Li [Qiang] could emerge as an important interlocutor for governments and companies that want to engage with China, said Neil Thomas, a Chinese politics fellow at @AsiaPolicy."

Great @AP report by @kmorit

1/ Image
"Li has held talks at the U.N. this week with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and Austrian Chancellor Christian Stocker."

2/
"Thomas described Li as 'an incredibly important person' to engage with during the U.N. meeting. 'He’s acting on Xi’s behalf,' he said, 'and will be able to relay messages between Xi and the world.'"

3/
Read 8 tweets
Sep 2
Told @nytimes the Beijing military parade "underscores China’s pull with autocrats as the world’s leading authoritarian power" and illustrated how "China is already a regional superpower."

But we shouldn't get too carried away about a new China-led world order...

1/ Image
As I told @business "this week is a diplomatic triumph for Beijing but China is still years or decades away from neutralizing US power in global finance, security and technology."

2/ Image
China is offering trade, investment, and stability—and that’s a very attractive package right now.

But it’s not yet offering the type of hard security guarantees and open economic architectures provided by the US, even with Trump’s America First policies.

3/
Read 5 tweets

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