Who are China's new leaders? The CCP just announced its new Politburo Standing Committee

The result: a clean sweep for Xi allies and a consolidation of power unseen since the Mao era

1. Xi Jinping
2. Li Qiang
3. Zhao Leji
4. Wang Huning
5. Cai Qi
6. Ding Xuexiang
7. Li Xi
(1/)
2. Li Qiang (63) likely new Premier of State Council

Li was Xi's top secretary when Xi was Zhejiang Party Secretary in the mid-2000s

Surprise as Premier. Li first Premier since 1976 not promoted from Vice Premier. He is inexperienced at national governance. Not good?
3. Zhao Leji (65) likely next Chairman of National People's Congress, in charge of legislating (Xi priority)

Zhao seems close w/Xi thru their fathers being revolutionary comrades from Shaanxi

Stays on PBSC but moved up from CCDI Secretary (no one serves more than 5yrs there)
4. Wang Huning (67) likely next Chairman of Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (United Front)

Wang worked for Jiang Zemin & Hu Jintao but is key architect of XJP Thought

Stays on PBSC, moved up from heading CCP Secretariat, maybe he also stays ideology czar?
5. Cai Qi (67 in Dec) is next First Secretary of CCP Central Secretariat (influential role running party business)

Cai worked under Xi in Fujian (closely) and Zhejiang

Slightly surprising viz other Xi allies. Not widely tipped & first Beijing PS promoted to PSC since 2002
6. Ding Xuexiang (60) likely next Executive Vice Premier of State Council

Ding is Xi's chief-of-staff and was his top secretary when Xi was Shanghai PS in 2007

Expected, but surprising not to party but less-qualified-for state role, perhaps to avoid appearance he is successor?
7. Li Xi (66) is new Secretary of the CCP Central Commission for Discipline Inspection (anti-corruption & internal discipline)

Knows Xi from working for close family friend earlier in career

Li ranked 7th but CCDI role was previously 6th, maybe due to Ding's closeness to Xi?
Thoughts:

Xi's PSC broke experience norms but not age norms (except for Xi). What about 2027?

There is only a Xi faction. Maybe competition emerges b/w sub-factions?

The big question now is how long can Xi's dominance last? This PSC helps Xi's agenda but costs may mount

(8/)

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Neil Thomas 牛犇

Neil Thomas 牛犇 Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @neilthomas123

Oct 22
Huge reveals in new 20th CCP Central Committee

Xi Jinping stays! But retirement for standing committee members 68+

Li Keqiang gone! So much for him as a political force

Wang Yang gone! Next premier probs Hu Chunhua or Li Qiang (both stay)

More Xi. More Xi policies. (1/)
Xi now likely to dominate the next Politburo Standing Committee, with 6/7 or 7/7 seats being Xi and his people (if still 7)

Wang Huning & Zhao Leji stay, leaving 4 slots. Likely Chen Min’er, Ding Xuexiang, Li Qiang, Li Xi (or Cai Qi, maybe Huang Kunming/Li Hongzhong) (2/)
Hu Chunhua only remaining Politburo member who is not a Xi ally.

But could still make PSC as premier if Xi wants weak figure like LKQ in potentially influential role, or maybe Exec Vice Premier

Would NOT be a sign of pushback. Hu is competent and has loyally served Xi. (3/)
Read 6 tweets
Jul 7
Thrilled to co-author with @mcgregorrichard this @NikkeiAsia cover story on the next generation of Chinese foreign policy leaders

Who's stepping down, who are the rising stars, and whither the "wolf warriors" in Xi Jinping's third term as leader? (1/18)

asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/The-…
Top diplomat Yang Jiechi 杨洁篪 (72), Politburo member and Office Director of the Xi-led Central Foreign Affairs Commission (CFAC), should retire

Yang was formerly Foreign Minister and a popular ambassador to the US, before fiery outbursts at US officials in 2010 and 2021 (2/18)
Wang Yi 王毅 (68), Foreign Minister & State Councilor (higher-ranking), is #2 diplomat but should also retire

Xi may exempt only himself from norms forcing top officials to retire if 68+ in this 20th Party Congress year

Wang is a Japan expert & former ambassador to Tokyo (3/18)
Read 18 tweets
Jan 3
Big personnel moves in the Chinese Communist Party over the holidays (catch-up thread!)

New Xinjiang Party Secretary (~new Politburo member), Guangdong governor & Chongqing mayor (~new Central Committee members)

Wins for the "aerospace gang" & "Tsinghua clique" under Xi (1/9)
Ma Xingrui 马兴瑞 (62yo) is the new Party Secretary of Xinjiang

Promoted from Governor of Guangdong, where he worked under Xi ally Li Xi

Previously Shenzhen PS, MIIT Vice-Min, space engineer & Central Committee member since 2012

Likely to win a Politburo seat this fall (2/9)
Why is Ma likely to enter the Politburo? The Xinjiang PS has won a PB seat since 2002

Ma also in Xi's "aerospace gang." He ran China Aerospace S&T Co from 07-13 & was deputy 99-07, where he worked w/other risers inc Yuan Jiajun (now Zhejiang PS) & Zhang Qingwei (Hunan PS) (3/9)
Read 9 tweets
Nov 9, 2021
What's the CCP saying about Xi's third history resolution? Some top-line hints in party media:

It will interpret the CCP's 100-year history to answer two "important questions"

1. "Why were we able to succeed in the past?"
2. "How can we continue to succeed in the future?"

(1/)
Xi's history resolution will hail four "great achievements"

1. New democracy revolution, 1919-1949
2. Socialist revolution & construction, 1949-1978
3. Reform and opening & socialist modernization, 1978-2012
4. Socialism with Chinese characteristics for a new era, 2012-?

(2/)
Xi's history resolution will highlight "four changes"

1. Standing up to enslavement & bullying [by foreigners]
2. Moving toward modernization [CCP-style]
3. Opening up a road to success [that others could use?]
4. Revealing a bright future for national rejuvenation

(3/)
Read 6 tweets
Oct 20, 2021
Huge day for personnel politics in the Chinese Communist Party

7 province-level govs get new Party Secretaries, inc Tibet, plus new Bingtuan PS in Xinjiang

Biggest day in ages, ramping up to the 20th Party Congress in 2022

These moves show Xi Jinping's power (again!) (1/16)
Wang Junzheng 王君正 (58yo) is the new Party Secretary of Tibet

Promoted from Party Secretary of the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps ("bingtuan")

Was sanctioned by US, UK, EU & Canada for human rights violations in March

Bad sign for Tibet? More XJ methods? (2/16)
More on Wang:

Worked under Li Hongzhong, Xi's ally on the Party's elite 25-member Politburo, in Hubei from 2012-2016, & under Chen Quanguo in XJ

Will go from non-voting alternate to full Central Committee member next year & young enough to get on Politburo in 2027 (3/16)
Read 16 tweets
Oct 4, 2021
Big personnel moves in the Chinese Communist Party in recent days

New provincial leaders in Anhui, Shandong, Xinjiang & Zhejiang

And a former Minister of Justice is purged

These moves show Xi Jinping further consolidating power before the 20th Party Congress next fall (1/10)
Li Ganjie 李干杰 (56) is the new Party Secretary of Shandong

Promoted from Governor of Shandong, a post he was "parachuted" into from Minister of Environment last April

Politburo contender. Youngest provincial PS & part of "Tsinghua clique" of grads of Xi's alma mater (2/10)
Zhou Naixiang 周乃翔 (59) is the new Governor of Shandong

Level-up promotion from Party Secretary of China State Construction Engineering Corporation

Worked 35+ years in native Jiangsu, inc under Xi allies Cai Qi & Li Qiang

Will upgrade to a full Central Committee seat (3/10)
Read 10 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(