I'm pretty sure that Russians have already made the decision to withdraw from the Western bank of the Dnipro River. One element for achieving that is deception. The enemy must not know that withdrawal is imminent. Many Russians claimed that they will fight. (they won't) /1
Another critical element is having a capable rear guard. The withdrawing force must be covered for the duration of that process. This rear guard must be committed, agile and equipped with fast vehicles when they have to withdraw. Russia will likely just sacrifice conscripts. /2
The most important element, however, is logistics and the discipline to execute such a complicated objective. Russia has proven in this war that it lacks both of this, on an epic level. Especially considering that the Dnipro River needs to be crossed complicates it even more. /3
Furthermore, we are looking into 2 smaller theaters of war. The area West on the Inhulets River and, secondly, the area between Inhulets and Dnipro rivers. If one side falls apart to soon it will expose the other one. I see the area East of Inhulets weaker but that can change./4
To improve the Russian odds, it is possible that Russian air force will be seen increasingly in that area. The movement of S-400 (and their recent destruction) could be another indicator that Russians need to concentrate and risk high value assets. Keep an eye on them. /5
With the Kerch Bridge out of action and Zaporizhzhia Oblast being under pressure by AFU as well I do not expect much reinforcements for Russian forces. Conscripts as mentioned above will likely be used as cannon fodder to secure the withdrawal. /6
Having said that all, we should not forget that this comes even under the best conditions. The Ukrainians have a plethora of methods to thwart all of those points and they are fully aware of what Russians are doing, thanks to intelligence, no matter what they claim. /7
We should also not forget that Kherson City has large crowds which do not want to be Russians. Shortly after the occupation they made themselves heard. The question, however, is how many are in the city. This can be both good or bad. Good that they help... /8 
... but also bad because they can be abused as human shields. The claim that Russia has started "evacuating" civilians can be projected on collaborators, at best, which are anyway just a small fraction. /9
We will see soon what that all means. The situation for Russians has reached another low point and we have even seen that sometimes that they actually admit it. The Russian regime is incapable of stopping the Ukrainian army and will continue using terrorist methods. /10
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