On February 24, 2022, exactly 1000 days ago Russia launched the full-scale war against Ukraine, a war which in fact started in February 2014 with the occupation and annexation of Crimea. Looking back, let is review what strategic goals Russia has (not) achieved. I summarized 10 objectives which were laid out during but also during the full scale war.

Thread: Objective 1: Conquering Kyiv

The takeover of Gostomel airport near Kyiv was crucial for a swift takeover of Ukraine's capital and by extension the country altogether. The conscripts defending the airport, however, delayed the Russian advance of Russian VDV paratroopers long enough and blocked the runway so that no Russian reinforcements could arrive on time.

Ukrainian elite formations could establish defense perimeters around the Ukrainian capital and eventually drove the invasion back. During this process, massive amounts of Russian equipment have been taken, which will play a crucial role for the coming months and years.

Result: Decisive Russian failure

Finland, a country with a long border with Russia and in striking distance to crucial Russian bases such as Murmansk naval port, Olenya air base or even Sankt Petersburg, joint NATO in 2023, but no Russian missiles or drones hit the country when it announced that it wants to join the alliance. (1/5) Finland is the living proof for several facts:

1. Russia is not threatened by NATO. Moscow itself claimed it has "no problems Finland being NATO member"

2. If you have a strong military, Russia is deterred

3. Russia never honor treaties, only strength

4. Shared security (NATO) is essential

(2/5)

Putin is the biggest loser of the last 10 years and here is my list of reasons why. Let me elaborate:

1.) 2013/2014 Putin tried to install Janukovic as a puppet dictator in Ukraine, similar to Lukashenko in Belarus. His scheme fell apart and Janukovic was fleeing shortly later.

Putin failed. 2.) 2014 Putin tried to take the Donbas and to expel the Ukrainian army by using Russian troops disguised as rebels. The Ukrainian army came back, destroyed most of those elements and established a contact line.

Putin failed.

My opinion regarding this clip:

This isn’t Putin and the buildings which have been already geolocated are not the base. It is a decoy, the man and the base.
#Kherson #Ukraine

The Russian army is one of the dumbest armies in the world, but even they wouldn't allow to have taken pictures that way. This very distinct water tower can be easily concealed when recording in a different angle.

They wanted us to geolocate this location.

You might have never heard of cities called "Khaishenvai", "Boli" or "Shuangchenzi" as well as the island of "Quedao", because that are the official names according the Chinese Ministry of Natural Resources for Vladivostok, Khabarovsk, Ussuriysk and Sakhalin, "newly" introduced. I cannot say that I'm surprised, aside that it happens a earlier.

When you look into (Chinese) history you will find the chapter of "Unequal Treaties" where parts of China were carved out and integrated into imperial powers, e.g. Britain, Germany, France, Japan and...Russia.

5 years ago I wrote this tweet. It was a few days after Russians and Assadist forces tried to take over the Al Omar oil fields in eastern Syria by attacking US-backed SDF troops. It was a disaster for the Russians. PMC Wagner lost an entire battalion within few hours.
#Syria

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/963488632563740677

What happened before this fateful event:

SDF was successfully advancing south. By that time a significant part of the oil fields had been under SDF control and more fields further south, which were under Islamic State control, were in reach.

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/914110667535392769?s=20

The whole situation around Vuhledar gets even spicier when reflecting this little know fact that another mercenary group, "PMC Patriot", is operating there, and they are led by no other than Russian Defense Minister Shoigu.
#Vuhledar #Ukraine
n-tv.de/politik/Ukrain… The Russian military has fielded huge amounts of troops and gear in order to take Vuhledar. They were even so convinced to succeed that they glaringly used their propaganda outlets to announce that the takeover will be achieved "within 72h".

Igor “Strelkov” Girkin continues to attack decisions made by the Russian leadership. Today, he attacks Russia’s adventure in Syria. Screenshot (source is his Telegram channel) speaks volumes. He is right when he calls Syria a “bottomless hole”. But what’s Putin’s motive? Thread Some say that he wanted to project Russian power into the Middle East while the US were gradually withdrawing. But I think that this was only a secondary reason. Far more important was to him something personal and that’s the fate of an helpless dictator, Assad’s fate.

Newest US military package for Ukraine:

- 59x Bradley IFVs with 590 TOWs and 295,000 rounds of 25mm ammunition
- 8x AN/TWQ-1 Avenger Air Defense Systems
- 90x Stryker APCs
- 350x HMMWVs
- 53x MRAPs
- 20,000 155mm arty ammo
- 95,000 105mm arty ammo
- 12,000 120mm mortar ammo - Additional munitions for National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems (NASAMS)
- Approximately 600 precision-guided 155mm artillery rounds
- Additional ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS)
- 12x ammunition support vehicles
- HARMs missiles

Die SPD ist völlig in ihrer verfehlten Russlandpolitik verfangen. Sie wird zwar am Ende dazu gezwungen werden, das richtige zu tun, aber ihr niederwürfiges Verhalten für Moskau wird ihr ewig anhängen. Viel schlimmer ist es aber für die Grünen und FDP. Warum? Kleiner Thread: Sowohl bei der FDP aber viel mehr noch bei den Grünen ist die Ostpolitik der SPD ein Grauß. Sie ist nämlich zutiefst anti-europäisch und hat keinerlei Zukunft. Grüne und FDP-Wähler sind allerdings tief in Europa verankert und werden das Verhalten des Kanzleramtes nicht verzeihen.

Matthias Gebauer (@gebauerspon) yesterday at Maybritt Illner:

"There is no way back for Putin. We hear from people in Moscow that Putin is more occupied with what happened with people like Gaddafi, who was lynched in a sewer. I doubt that there is a negotiable solution." In the same talkshow uttered by Katrin Eigendorf (@KEigendorf):

"Putin has no recipe for this war. He is exchanging generals like in the soviet Union. The promotion of Gerasimov is a clear admission that the attacks against civilian infrastructure failed. He sees no way out."

This video from a Wagner sniper mercenary in the north of Soledar is circulating and Pro-Russian fanboys celebrate it. I will explain why this must be the dumbest “sniper” I have seen in my entire life.
#Soledar #Ukraine #Donetsk Rule number 1 as a sniper:

NEVER EVER disclose your position, not even a bit. Especially don't brag over social media where you stand because you might be geolocated, which with a certainty of over 90% I just did.

Coordinates:

48°42'18.43"N, 38° 4'2.11"E

Looking Southwest

This Russian Shahed drone terror attack seems to focus in the south. From those 4 cities air defense activities are reported. Around 20 Shaheds are estimated. #Ukraine A few Shaheds might be still on the way deeper inside Ukraine. From Mykolaiv oblast reports arrive that Shaheds might be heading for Uman.
Additionally, Odesa might be a target as well.

I haven't heard of any impacts yet.

You will find in many Russian sources the admission that one of the shortcomings of the Russian government is the lack of defining the goals of the war.

To clarify this for you:
There aren't any because Putin never expected this war in the first place. #Ukraine #Russia Secondly, Putin cannot define any war goals because he is no strategist. He is a tactician and in that he reflects his absolute aimless rambling on the battlefield, in some instances like in Lyman even personally calling the field commanders, ordering them "to fight til the end".

A Russian source has issued this video showing advancing Ukrainian troops getting targeted by artillery (looks like they missed).

What’s more interesting, however, is the position. It is near Ploshchanka and I might have already geolocated it. #Ukraine #Luhansk #Ploshchanka It is hard to geolocate it, but this is my best take (85% sure), but there are many coinciding lines where I'm fairly certain to have a match.

If you've noticed that Russians are making virtually no progress around Bakhmut, even losing ground in the south, then you are right. They wasted their resources by frontally attacking the city, most notably at Opytne and East. Even Russian propagandists are getting dismayed. 1/7

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1602703461782618147

Their local gain at Yakovlivka, which should have been their main thrust in order to be successful, comes way too late to make a difference. Ukrainian troops still control the areas north of this town and reinforcements from Kherson are positioning. 2/7

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1603893472049643522?s=20&t=gjQDNK2ll_1SxPnLn7_9nQ

First footage of the hit bridge in Russian-occupied Melitopol. #Ukraine #Melitopol #Zaporizhzhia I'm pretty sure that this the bridge leading over the Molochna channel.

Coordinates:

46°50'31.84"N, 35°24'27.09"E

Instead of trying to encircle Bakhmut and slowly taking it, the Russian High command seems to have decided to launch a frontal attack on the city itself, proving my suspicion that Putin wants the city as fast as possible even when this means highest rate of own casualties. 1/8 It is the Russian version of shock and awe where everything is thrown into the meat grinder in order to overwhelm the enemy because there is no better option. This tactic is as reckless as it is desperate. You chose this only when you have a very limited time window. 2/8

There are some western leaders such as Macron who make no sense when talking about “security guarantees for Russia”. Putin has made clear in numerous instances that he does not recognize Ukraine as a state. So, it has zero to do with security. Even when we wouldn’t know that it is non sense because any security architecture is based on a status quo whatever that means and which is based on the current state of events. Russia under Putin is not interested in that but in the compete opposite.

Russia is aching for a ceasefire but the its propaganda logic dictates that this option can only be taken when Russia achieved a small or even Pyrrhic victory without the impression of being beaten over and over again as it is the case right now, especially after Kherson. Bakhmut is supposed to be a future propaganda facade with some tactical background but no strategic value. In the contrary, even when we project that Russians might achieve that objective it would be extremely hard to hold it with no additional reserves.

This is exactly what I was suspecting to happen. Putin and his followers know that their defeat cannot be averted so they try to project, claiming that what is going to happen to them is going to happen to every single Russian. 1/5 That is of course non sense except for one thing.

Many are wondering why Russians don’t oppose their government, inside or outside Russia. There are a plethora of different reasons in the whole Russian population. Some fear how they are perceived by family and friends. 2/5