Faisal Islam Profile picture
Oct 23 9 tweets 2 min read
Leadership candidate Penny Mordaunt commits to Hunt as Chancellor, and next Monday as date of Debt Plan, says she did have concerns about mini budget, and Truss had been clear that the Cabinet had not been briefed on it…
Earlier former Bank of England Governor Mervyn King blamed the Covid pandemic QE/ printing of money, alongside US & UK governments not having control of public finances for inflation crisis to #BBCLaurak
Mordaunt says she has been in to the Treasury to be briefed by Chancellor Hunt…

Mordaunt says interestingly cant have people making unfunded spending commitments in contest, wont even commit absolutely to 3% defence, pensions triple lock, & benefits uprating
Mordaunt evading specific tax/ spending answers, though she is the only one to actually declare. Other two have avoided questions so far, or even acknowledging formally standing… every chance PM is appointed without actual policy debate…
Understandably Mordaunt leans on the 2019 manifesto…

Important question now for all 3…

Is the 2019 manifesto consistent with the Hunt Halloween debt plan?

Eg suspected infrastructure spending cuts?
Mervyn King going further than standard critique of Bank of England and other central banks being slow off the mark raising rates - saying QE at start of pandemic was a mistake that fuelled inflation… directly criticising Bailey.
But notably ex BoE Gov King tells @bbclaurak
“In some ways it could be more difficult” than the Osborne Coalition austerity era…

And that politicians need to confront fact that if spending goes up as expected, then taxes will have to go up to on the average person. NI just cut.
Opposition leader Starmer says “Labour will be the party of sound money”… but says he wont write manifesto on programme as they want to see the OBR assessment of the “mess” they will inherit…
Implication of Mervyn King’s approach, is that you wouldnt have had same furlough scheme or self employment support, certainly not lasting that long, and that mortgage rates would have shot up during the pandemic…

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More from @faisalislam

Oct 23
Nominations close in 21 hours and Johnson has still not formally declared… and has not tweeted or said anything publicly 👀
Assuming or perhaps imagining it is true that his “numbers people” are right and he’s got 100 already, what explains the hesitation? A desire to get more than 100 to show future stability maybe? So what number is he looking for 150? 125?
Difficult not to remember that moment when he couldn’t continue with a leadership bid in 2016, partly because, as I was told at the famous event, his departed campaign manager Gove had the spreadsheet of supporters and had taken it with him…
Read 12 tweets
Oct 23
Interesting that Sunak says that the current situation might be tougher than the pandemic…

And that he will deliver on the “promise of the 2019 manifesto”…

Not sure the Hunt plan or whatever version of it proceeds can fully stick to the whole manifesto.
need to say “we’ll stick to 2019 manifesto” is obviously claim of mandate for a second unelected PM, but in practical terms, the world has changed beyond belief since then, with the world’s biggest health emergency for a century, war in Europe, energy shock, 40 yr inflation high
Read 4 tweets
Oct 23
Rees Mogg answers Laura’s question about whether Johnson really has 100 MPs:

“Clearly he’s going to stand”.
“The people who are doing the numbers for Boris’ campaign tell me he has the numbers”… and of those in Sunak campaign who doubt that he says “they would wouldnt they”
“They would, wouldnt they” also applies though to the “people” on the campaign who say he has the numbers… even if true, the 45ish MPs who want to say shy about their support is a clear signal, with informational value.
Perhaps a tell there from Raab, big Sunak supporter… “if it goes the the members, let’s see”.
Read 4 tweets
Oct 22
The Game Theory of this is interesting…

Especially in the final two.

And the tenor of this weekend is very important to see if the winner risks alienating a mass of backbenchers with v tough & contestable decisions immediately ahead…

200-171 will feel close.
250-121 will not
impossible to tell where we are heading here - but sense in papers that matter for Conservative members was of momentum to Sunak & talk of deals.

Not a signal that Johnson has 100 already. we would surely know that by now… flying back probs is a signal he has enough though.
But the perception that one side could get 250 plus in final round, say, could lead to the entire process being shortcircuited with something closer to a coronation… with candidates avoiding having to make eg tax or spending hostages to fortune. but how to prove that in advance?
Read 8 tweets
Oct 20
Not sure how this works…

All the leadership candidates sign up to Hunt’s Halloween Budget?

Do the policies suggested not become inherent to who wins, whether on tax or spend or worker visas etc?
some serious systems level supply chain analysis on leaders, how they get picked, and whether current methods are producing optimal results, or at very least seem to identify & select in or out the brightest and the best, would occur in any business, with results such as this.
Read 6 tweets
Oct 19
NEW:

Rate of inflation back up to 10.1% in September on target Consumer Prices Index measure… 5 times target.

Normally used as basis for uprating rises in pensions under triple lock, and benefits and tax credits, for April, but that is unclear right now.
“Rising food prices made the largest upward contribution to the change in both the CPIH and CPI annual inflation rates between August and September 2022.”…
Core CPI (a measure of underlying inflation that strips out most volatile elements (energy and food) is at its highest level since March 1992 - 6.5%, a 30 year high
Read 12 tweets

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