Contrast: Manhattan's Upper West Side houses around 200,000 people in 1.9 square miles. And it's not an urban hellhole! In fact, it's pretty genteel, side streets are surprisingly quiet, and the quality of life — if you can afford a residence — is high 1/
Of course, it's not affordable for most people: apartments cost on average around $1600 a square foot 2/realtor.com/realestateandh…
But that doesn't mean that density is pointless. By living in 15-story apartment buildings rather than low-rise structures, the elite residents of the Upper West Side free up urban land elsewhere in New York, helping make housing more affordable in other areas 3/
New York as a whole is still expensive. But that's because it doesn't allow enough density overall, not because some affluent neighborhoods are dense 4/
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Important. Core inflation over the past 3 months was 6 percent annualized. But more than half of that was shelter, which was up 8 percent because it reflects market rents with a long lag 1/ bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Like a lot of economists I'll be watching Friday's Employment Cost Index — especially the measure that excludes incentive pay and arguably gives a better picture of underlying wage growth 2/
Also on tap, Thursday, advance GDP. Let me lay down a marker — not for the overall number but for residential investment. We know that the bottom is falling out of the housing market, with mortgage applications way down 3/ mortgagenewsdaily.com/data/mortgage-…
OK, watched the first two episodes with great trepidation — would they do William Gibson's terrific novel justice? And so far they have 1/
Actually, this being a production by the people who brought you Westworld, it benefits from being watched twice, for all the details you missed the first time, like the disappearing motorcycle 2/
They changed the plot quite a lot from the novel to make it TV-suitable — among other things, a lot more on-screen violence — but retained the central conceit. And I found it gripping on both viewings, actually more the second time 3/
So, I've been working hard this week, and am about to quietly quit for at least the rest of tonight. Nerving myself up to watch "The Peripheral", hoping that the Westworld team does justice to William Gibson 1/
But it suddenly occurred to me that there's an overlap with today's newsletter 2/ nytimes.com/2022/10/21/opi…
Gibson's novel, and presumably the TV show, involve struggling working-class Americans from the near future dealing with strange sort-of time travel conspiracies. It's great. But I suddenly noticed that the protagonists are rural and, probably, white 3/
One of the most depressing things about US political economy is the salience of gas prices, which for the most part have nothing to do with policy. $5 gas earlier this year seemingly made a red wave inevitable; Democratic recovery was driven by Roe but also by falling gas 1/
Control of Congress, and maybe the future of democracy, may well depend on the extent to which the uptick in gas prices that began in September is reversed by Election Day (prices now falling fast in some regions) 2/
Three things to know. First, the biggest determinant of gas prices is crude prices, which are set on world markets, not by US policy 3/
What somewhat surprises and disappoints me in the discussion of shelter inflation is that so few commentators seem to understand why we have a concept of core inflation — what it's for. 1/
If you want to know the cost of living, you just want the CPI. Core tries to answer different question: is the economy running too hot? The standard measure excludes food and energy prices because they're volatile and often driven by shocks that don't relate to this question 2/
But what if, as seems likely, core inflation stays high for a while because shelter is mostly continuing leases, so it reflects what was going on in rental markets many months ago — but not what's happening now? 3/
A quick update on shelter and inflation: Goldman Sachs has a new research note on new rental rates, as opposed to the BLS rent measure, which is dominated by leases signed some time ago. They say that new rentals now rising ~3% annual: 1/
If "true" shelter inflation — as a measure of overheating, not cost of living — is only 3%, that matters a lot. Median inflation tends to be very close to shelter inflation, so that measure is also now ~3% 2/
Conventional core, excluding food and energy, rose at a 6% rate over the past 3 months, driven by shelter at 8%. But if shelter, which is 40% of core, is "really" 3%, that means true core is ~4% 3/