Thread by @PhillipsPOBrien

Weekend Update. Havent tweeted much in the last week as Ive been travelling and had alot of work. However the week in the Russo-Ukraine war can be divided into two areas, the attacks on Ukrainian power supply and the situation on the front line particularly near Kherson.

Maybe best place to start is the Russian campaign using air assets to target Ukrainian power generation.

https://twitter.com/mjluxmoore/status/1582265060482686977?s=20&t=9SQ9JOWWO9qfGKcTnVmiJQ

These are clearly having some kind of impact on Ukrainian power generation, and there are stories of Ukraine have power outages and blackouts. theguardian.com/world/2022/oct…

This is something to watch, because it does represent a very different use of airpower from the first part of the Russian air campaign, which seemed to be indiscriminate attacks on Ukrainian cities. That is counterproductive in a war making sense.

There has been some confusion that this means all airpower attacks behind the lines are counterproductive--and that is not true. Strategic Airpower, starting in WWII, could be very effective when it was directed towards the economic war making powers of the Axis countries.

In this way, this Russian air campaign against Ukrainian power is potentially one of the more effective efforts that they have made in this war. Cutting power does impact war fighting, and will divert Ukrainian resources.

It is worth noting that recently this has led to an increase in anti-air support for Ukraine, including from Germany. Will be important for Ukraine that more of such support comes through.

https://twitter.com/NewVoiceUkraine/status/1580560236578062339?s=20&t=9SQ9JOWWO9qfGKcTnVmiJQ

And Ukraine seems keen for more. Definitely this campaign is worth watching, as the more the Ukrainian power supply is damaged, the more difficult it is for them to maintain services.

https://twitter.com/UATV_en/status/1583076818206093316?s=20&t=9SQ9JOWWO9qfGKcTnVmiJQ

The Russian campaign seems based on the hope that they can now stymie Ukraine through the rest of the winter, while the Russians try to build up a new conscript army. The Ukrainians, however, do seem to want to make at least one more major effort before the winter hits.

The situation at Kherson is definitely worth watching, as @WarintheFuture has tweeted about.

https://twitter.com/WarintheFuture/status/1584043380706660353?s=20&t=9SQ9JOWWO9qfGKcTnVmiJQ

Ive been saying for a while that it would make sense for the Russians to pull back over the Dnipro to try and protect their forces to ride out the winter. It would provide them a better defensive position.

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1568971589827579906?s=20&t=9SQ9JOWWO9qfGKcTnVmiJQ

Of course, politically its a big loss for the Russians, as Kherson is the largest city they have captured and the capital of the oblast which has been illegally annexed. So right now there seems to be conflicting evidence of their intentions.

The thing to watch on the front line is whether Ukraine will try something somewhere other than Kherson. Certainly with the way the war has developed, they would have an impetus to keep pressing somewhere before the winter.

Worth noting that some Russian sources are talking about the Ukrainians pushing again near Svatove. That always worth watching.

https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1583997027251146752?s=20&t=9SQ9JOWWO9qfGKcTnVmiJQ

So overall, a week again of not much change on the battlefield. Some signs that the Russians are thinking about using airpower in more effective ways, some signs that the Russian position in Kherson is in trouble.

And maybe the biggest question is what the Ukrainian high command feels it can attempt before the onset of bad weather.

ps--might also have a light tweeting week this week, but will keep going with these weekend updates. Promise!