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Oct 24 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
JD Vance only has a 12 point lead among white voters without college degrees. Which is pretty anemic for a Republican in 2022.

maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/upl…
Likewise, how does Ryan only have a 9 point advantage with millennials?
Vance somehow has a 15 point advantage among men.

I’ll bet if Donald Trump gives Vance some purple nurples on stage and then shoves him into a locker during the next rally and Vance replies “thank you very much, sir,” his numbers among men will go up even further.
#IDontGetIt
It looks like this is just a close, close, close race.

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More from @TheValuesVoter

TheValuesVoter Profile picture
Oct 26
Understand this:

Most pollsters try to do a good job and accurately predict what will happen based on what’s happening now and what’s happened in the past.

But some pollsters want to convince people that there’s no point in voting at all.
Professionals try to predict what will happen based on things like how different groups of people have voted in the past, how likely they are to vote and a lot of other factors. They don’t KNOW. They take an educated guess about what you will do (vote for A or B - or DON’T vote).
The truth is that the honest pollsters don’t really tell us, the voters, what’s going to happen. We determine what will happen by voting and who we vote for. Or not voting. That’s a decision too.
Read 4 tweets
TheValuesVoter Profile picture
Oct 26
It’s real simple, guys. Let’s take the North Carolina Senate race for an example.

Cheri Beasley and Ted Budd, the guy who voted to throw out 2020 Presidential elections, are tied among REGISTERED voters.

But Budd is four points ahead among LIKELY voters.

See the problem?
It doesn’t matter what we’d LIKE TO SEE happen with regard to whether or not this country continues to have free elections.

It matters what we MAKE HAPPEN with regard to whether or not this country continues to have free elections.

We make it happen by going out and VOTING.
maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/upl…
Read 4 tweets
TheValuesVoter Profile picture
Oct 26
Here’s what gets me about people who mock John Fetterman’s communication challenges but who also support Herschel Walker …

#PASenDebate
#PASen
#GASen
Listening to Herschel Walker talk is, for me, a similar experience to listening to John Fetterman in this first debate after his stroke.

The difference is that Walker didn’t have a stroke. And Fetterman didn’t have multiple women claim that he physically abused them.
Criticize Fetterman’s ability to communicate at the moment? Sure. It’s very clear that he had a stroke.

But then the same people celebrate when Walker, who has no such claim of a recent medical crisis, successfully completes a sentence. “Herschel nailed it!”
Read 4 tweets
TheValuesVoter Profile picture
Oct 24
In 2022, when you vote for a House Republican, no matter what their name is or how normal they sound, you’re voting for Marjorie Taylor-Greene, Paul Gosar, Matt Gaetz and Lauren Boebert.

Because if the GOP wins the House, these folks will kinda be in charge.
You know that feeling when you try to order something from a vending machine and get something else?

That’s what will happen when you vote for your friendly neighborhood “Sane Republican” for the House. Out will pop the Crazy Caucus. Who will be running things. Yee-haw!!! Image
But what about Mr. or Ms. Normal Republican who you voted for? They’ll still be there, right? They won’t all be crazy?

Listen, son. The normies are going to be told to sit down, shut up and sit in the corner. They aren’t in the driver’s seat in today’s House GOP.
Read 6 tweets
TheValuesVoter Profile picture
Oct 23
So how accurate or inaccurate can polls be? Let’s look at how accurate the state level polls were in 2020.

The polls (RCP Average) in 2020 predicted Biden would win Wisconsin by 6.7 points. Biden won Wisconsin by 0.7 points.
They predicted Biden would win Minnesota by 4.3 points. Biden won MN by 7.2 points.

They predicted Trump would win North Carolina by 0.2 points. He won NC by 1.3 points.

They predicted Biden would win Florida by 0.9 points. Trump won FL by 3.3 points.
They predicted that Trump would win Georgia by 1.0 point. Biden won GA by 0.3 points.

In Pennsylvania, the polls were dead-on. The RCP average of polls predicted Biden would win Pennsylvania by 1.2 points and he won PA by 1.2 points.
Read 5 tweets
TheValuesVoter Profile picture
Oct 23
Republicans running for Congress are saying things like “Vote Republican for less crime.”

May I present a rebuttal to that argument?
Since these guys are running for Congress and making the claim that voting Republican for Congreddsolves crime, it only makes sense to see if that strategy has worked out historically.
As it turns out, 7 of the 10 states with the highest rates of violent crime in the whole country have not just one but two Republican U.S. Senators.

The people took the advice and voted for Republican Senators. And it didn’t get rid of crime.
Read 6 tweets

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