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Konstantin Sonin

@k_sonin

Oct 14

@ZelenskyyUa

President @ZelenskyyUa correctly rejects negotiating with Putin. Still, the reason that Zelenskyy cites - Putin's a war criminal - is largely irrelevant. What is relevant is that Putin is unable to make any credible commitments, the necessary element of any negotiations. 1/

The problem with Putin's commitment is that there is no institution in Russia that can provide a guarantee for Putin's promises. Putin is the sole decision maker, which means that any promise he makes is conditional on his willingness to keep his promise. 2/

Of course Putin lies easily and has reneged on many of his own promises before. He signed a guarantee of Ukrainian borders in 2003, and promised not to invade many times. After annexing Crimea, he lied that there were no Russian troops there, only to say differently later. 3/

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Konstantin Sonin

@k_sonin

Sep 30

Very briefly.

Putin's "recognition" does not change anything. The criminal, and increasingly unpopular domestically, war will continue, with Ukraine having an upper hand. 1/

Putin's assumption that the US support will cease or slow at some point is from the same "analysis" that promised taking Kyiv in 3 days and that Ukrainians will great him with flowers. Not surprisingly, the same people fed this garbage to him and to TV propagandists to spread. 2/

Similarly, there is no chance that the support of Ukraine from the eastern/northern members of NATO - Poland, Sweden, Finland, Baltic countries - will cease. With other EU members, I have some concerns, but they do not matter much, fortunately. 3/

Read 8 tweets

Konstantin Sonin

@k_sonin

Sep 20

Frankly, on the today's news on new mobilization laws and referenda on the occupied territories - this is much ado about nothing. For six months, Putin does whatever it takes to win the war, constantly seeking any ways to escalate. 1/

To inflict the maximum pain and win the war, Russian troops massively targeted civilians and employed all possible military means on the frontiers. On the home front, they have started a mass mobilization campaign months ago, offering 10 times the average wages to volunteers. 2/

This mobilization campaign failed and there are no reasons to believe that the stick will work where the carrot failed that spectacularly. No reason to think that the conscripted army will do any better (in fact, it will be much worse). 3/

Read 6 tweets

Konstantin Sonin

@k_sonin

Jul 13

@CatherineBelton

Everyone is fascinated by Nikolay Patrushev, brilliantly profiled by @CatherineBelton - who jumped in the spotlight after years as a Putin's chamber ideologist. I disagree. Patrushev is a live embodiment of institutional degradation, a man wildly unfit for his current office. 1/

https://twitter.com/CatherineBelton/status/1547162561078075395

For years, Patrushev's interviews were filled with conspiracies theories mixed up with aged or outright incorrect information. Whenever he spoke about economy or other civil matters, he sounded uneducated and misinformed. 2/

There have been always the "10-dimensional chess" commentators who interpreted Payrushev's conspiracy theories or misinformed opinions as, well, 10-dimensional chess. Yet the war showed that Putin's actions were based not on sophisticated knowledge behind the 10D chess. 3/

Read 6 tweets

Konstantin Sonin

@k_sonin

Jul 10

Some great Ukrainian and Russian scholars are bewildered why John Mearsheimer gets so much traction with his "NATO expansion is a cause of the Russian invasion" theory. That's actually quite simple: the brilliance of the theory is that makes a foreign event a domestic issue. 1/

Mearsheimer is no specialist on Russia, or Ukraine, or the region. And neither his audience. So, what he offers is a theory that is barely plausible as an explanation, among many, yet "relevant". If the US role is marginal - as it is in most foreign conflicts, who'd care? 2/

So, when someone with real expertise starts to argue with the Mearsheimer's theory on merits, they immediately start losing the American audience. If the war had domestic Russian or historical Ukraine vs Russian causes, then the audience eager to listen is much smaller. 3/

Read 5 tweets

Konstantin Sonin

@k_sonin

May 25

@meduzaproject

Per @meduzaproject - people around Putin are unhappy about how things are turned out - and even more so about where the country is heading. The problem is that in a regime like Putin's leaders might survive even when all magnates are unhappy - Hitler-1945 is a prime example. 1/

I would expect Putin to be replaced by a junta, a "collective leadership" in the Soviet parlance, a division of power between the magnates. This happened after Stalin's death in 1953 and after Khrushchev ouster in 1964. 2/

Among the current contenders, three stand out. Sergei Kirienko, the (deputy) chief of staff, a liberal prime minister decades ago, and under-radar power broker in the recent years. His surfacing at Mariupol last week was not accident. 3/

Read 5 tweets

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